Kinda have a point
Do I know what?
That EFC have spent 2 years telling Francis he needs to try harder and as a result he’s said he wants to go home.
I can’t see the deal being good enough for us to let go of him at this stage given what the club has put into his development. They knew there was going to be some early pain with this bloke but he was very much a long term pick. Port seem most interested but only on their terms so fk them. I really think we should stay the course with Francis & reap the benefits in the coming years.
What if he continues his trajectory and this is the best chance to move him for anything close to what we invested in him.
The way I see it the judgement is quite sound for moving him now.
If we keep him and he doesn’t improve then we missed our best chance to recoup something
If we keep him and he comes good, great.
If we move him now, and he still doesn’t improve it will be a win
If we move him now and he comes good somewhere else then no one will begrudge us moving him to assist with landing SSS.
There is only one scenario there that turns out bad for us really. Risk assessment says move him now.
Are you talking about shares or a person?
I hope the club sticks by him and backs its coaching and development, and is able to reignite his love and dream of playing in the red and black. I would rather have him on the list for 2 years and see what happens than try and cut losses and get a packet of chips in return. Because face facts that is what will be offered.
I have a feeling if he goes to Adelaide it will be looked at in years to come as a monumental mistake.
Let him spend time at home, and pay one of the fitness guys a bonus to travel with him to ensure he keeps fit and more. It would be money well spent.
Finally our quality key position players are all older apart from JD, we cannot afford to lose one that has such talent.
Judging this is difficult, no doubt. What do you deem as fair compensation for him though? At the moment, Port is the only one showing some interest and at a second round price. I’d roll the dice & back him and the club in to produce.
There’s no doubt there’s been some concerns early on but towards the end of the year there was some optimism around him. I think once he’s playing regular senior footy, the homesickness goes away to a large extent. We should be the ones to benefit from his rise and I’m confident it’ll come. Soon.
This is just going to make me post them even harder.
1 I dunno I’m pretty interested in any info I can get about Francis staying or leaving and assume anyone on the Aaron Francis thread is as well.
2 if you think these sources are worthless please ignore them and move onto the next post.
3 if you think posting them should be bannable… have you seen some of the other stuff that gets posted on this site?
Who are his best mates at the club?
Looks from his insta that he lives with Morgan Draper and Mutch in a ‘team’ house.
(Sorry, should have put a content warning on this)
It doesn’t sound like it will, but if we were lucky enough to be offered 16 from Adelaide you’d take it and run to the Dogs and swap it for Stringer.
But for a back end 2nd round pick you back him in and hope to see some improvement.
In talent he is still better than anybody outside the top ten in the draft, even factoring in the continued growth in fitness required. Thus unless it’s a pick around that I’d rather take the risk he is a Gumby.
With SSS coming in we will be rising the ladder, we can afford to take a punt our coaches and leaders can get him right.
Don’t mind if we trade Francis. Guy has the stamina of a snail.
I don’t even play footy yet i could outrun him.
This indicates a lack of work ethic.
A risk assessment that doesn’t include outcomes or probabilities isn’t really a risk assessment though, is it?
The worst outcome is he becomes the best player in the league and our (say) pick 17 that we get in return ends up as being a bust. Likelihood is low, but that would be pretty catastrophic.
Best outcome is we find a star and Francis does nothing. Likelihood also very low.
I don’t think that if we move him and he doesn’t come good it’s a win, because there’s no guarantees about the other side. If it’s a future pick and he also doesn’t come good we probably end up losing as well, just because we get nothing from that list spot for even longer.
The proposed trade involves something late 1st or even 2nd round, either in a weak draft or in a draft into the future that is both not completely known, and a year behind in development. Chances of that amounting to anything for Francis long term aren’t that high.
Whereas we assessed Francis as being a good chance to make it as a very good player less than 2 years ago. To trade that in for a 50/50 chance of being anything at all hardly seems a wise move. Has our view of him deteriorated so much in 2 years (and with our coaches working with him) that we think he’s such a small chance of even being an average player?
I think our best chance of recouping something is to invest the $$ and time in growing him as a player into what we thought he could become.
How was Luke Hodge’s work ethic early days?
And I’m in no way accepting that Francis has poor work ethic anyway. He’s a young kid who has had some challenges. Everything says that he’s been trying hard, but that he’s had a few setbacks, some his own doing, some not.
These big powerful units take time. He has to learn his body and know how it reacts to all of the different things he throws at it.
I’ve known people who started out training hard in the traditional sense because that’s the way it was done, only to realise after years of injuries that their body didn’t handle masses of traditional kms, but if they did targeted training on soft surfaces they could get the outcomes they were looking for without ever running more than about 3kms at a time in training. (these outcomes included very very good running times at everything from 400m to half marathon)
I was never actually aware that stamina was a problem for snails. I thought their biggest problem was the same issue that most of our midfield has had for the last 5 years.
who knows, but he played about 5 times more senior footy than franga, and infintely more brownlow votes, so he must have been doing something right.