A risk assessment that doesn’t include outcomes or probabilities isn’t really a risk assessment though, is it?
The worst outcome is he becomes the best player in the league and our (say) pick 17 that we get in return ends up as being a bust. Likelihood is low, but that would be pretty catastrophic.
Best outcome is we find a star and Francis does nothing. Likelihood also very low.
I don’t think that if we move him and he doesn’t come good it’s a win, because there’s no guarantees about the other side. If it’s a future pick and he also doesn’t come good we probably end up losing as well, just because we get nothing from that list spot for even longer.
The proposed trade involves something late 1st or even 2nd round, either in a weak draft or in a draft into the future that is both not completely known, and a year behind in development. Chances of that amounting to anything for Francis long term aren’t that high.
Whereas we assessed Francis as being a good chance to make it as a very good player less than 2 years ago. To trade that in for a 50/50 chance of being anything at all hardly seems a wise move. Has our view of him deteriorated so much in 2 years (and with our coaches working with him) that we think he’s such a small chance of even being an average player?
I think our best chance of recouping something is to invest the $$ and time in growing him as a player into what we thought he could become.