For all those rating our squad based on last year, it is a waste of time! and you all know the reasons for that.
Reckon last year we had a better draft just in terms of how well we did in the circumstances; in fact I'd argue we had the best draft of any club given we had one hand tied behind our backs - getting Langford ahead of Carlton was a stroke of genius, knowing Laverde was going to be there for us shortly after. This year we were a victim of circumstance; I think Redman and Morgan were probably rated 10 or so picks later than where we got them but they were never going to last until the pick we had in the 50s, this is not to say either player will not be successful nor prove to be a lot better than where we got them in the draft but just ratings for both players at the time they were drafted. I'm hoping one day the AFL will introduce pick-swapping/player swapping in-draft as they have in US sports because possibly we could have traded down 5 spots and maybe picked up a selection in next years draft in the process if it did exist, whilst picking up the same players in the process.I think Oliver will have a better career than Parish but that’s just my opinion, I guess that’s a moot point anyway given he wasn’t available to us. Where I think where we aced the draft was in getting Brown, Eades and Hartley - I genuinely believe those are great picks and backed up Dodos claim he was going to “pick the eyes” out of the draft with the later picks - the Francis/Parish picks were easy in comparision given they were probabaly BPA on our list when we got them. Also I’m stoked with the rookie draft - what they’ve done with the players we got there is exactly how the rookie draft should be used.
I can understand Ants concern about not getting a few talls, especially for the forward line, but there’s no guarantee that the talls available to us in the first round are going to make it. There are big question marks over Weiderman for example, let alone the question marks over McKay and Curnow; Francis and Parish are much surer bets and besides Francis can play as a third tall in the forward line and Hartley and Brown obviously cover some of the tall deficiencies we have on our list. Also I trust Dodos assessment of the big boys given he’s delivered us Hurley/Hooker/Jenkins et al - its likely he saw Weiderman/McKay etc as reaches in the top 10, hence us going with the players we did.
Why do you presume this to be the case? What ‘ratings’ are you referring to? Forum phantom draft echo chambers?, Cal Twomey (who had Redman at our second round pick)? Why could they simply not be rated the best available according to the paid experts who have watched them for years and now selected them? Not having a dig at you, just testing your assumptions - and I agree with much of what you have written.
Ants,
The thing I would disagree with is the premise that the midfield is a fixed thing that you have, and then change and wait 5 years for the new one to be any good.
We’ll have holes, no doubt, but Heppell, Zaharakis, Z Merrett, Colyer, Myers, even potentially J Merrett, Fantasia, etc have generally looked I already be afl midfield standard or like they will be there in a year or 2. If we can get accelerated development out of Langford and Laverde and Parish I don’t see why we won’t transition seamlessly. And the younger guys should be better on the spread so our midfield should improve, even if it might lack a couple of stars. An afl midfield is more than the sum of its parts when done properly, so I’m hopeful anyway.
As for Hartley and Brown, the comment about late pick talls ignores the fact that they’re mature and known quantities. We have bought then in to play a role with a good understanding of their abilities in that role. We know where their bodies will end up and how their minds will mature. We know how they’ve performed against afl listed players. The risks of them being late picks are significantly reduced by the body of work we’ve seen them out together.
Reckon last year we had a better draft just in terms of how well we did in the circumstances; in fact I'd argue we had the best draft of any club given we had one hand tied behind our backs - getting Langford ahead of Carlton was a stroke of genius, knowing Laverde was going to be there for us shortly after. This year we were a victim of circumstance; I think Redman and Morgan were probably rated 10 or so picks later than where we got them but they were never going to last until the pick we had in the 50s, this is not to say either player will not be successful nor prove to be a lot better than where we got them in the draft but just ratings for both players at the time they were drafted. I'm hoping one day the AFL will introduce pick-swapping/player swapping in-draft as they have in US sports because possibly we could have traded down 5 spots and maybe picked up a selection in next years draft in the process if it did exist, whilst picking up the same players in the process.I think Oliver will have a better career than Parish but that’s just my opinion, I guess that’s a moot point anyway given he wasn’t available to us. Where I think where we aced the draft was in getting Brown, Eades and Hartley - I genuinely believe those are great picks and backed up Dodos claim he was going to “pick the eyes” out of the draft with the later picks - the Francis/Parish picks were easy in comparision given they were probabaly BPA on our list when we got them. Also I’m stoked with the rookie draft - what they’ve done with the players we got there is exactly how the rookie draft should be used.
I can understand Ants concern about not getting a few talls, especially for the forward line, but there’s no guarantee that the talls available to us in the first round are going to make it. There are big question marks over Weiderman for example, let alone the question marks over McKay and Curnow; Francis and Parish are much surer bets and besides Francis can play as a third tall in the forward line and Hartley and Brown obviously cover some of the tall deficiencies we have on our list. Also I trust Dodos assessment of the big boys given he’s delivered us Hurley/Hooker/Jenkins et al - its likely he saw Weiderman/McKay etc as reaches in the top 10, hence us going with the players we did.
Why do you presume this to be the case? What ‘ratings’ are you referring to? Forum phantom draft echo chambers?, Cal Twomey (who had Redman at our second round pick)? Why could they simply not be rated the best available according to the paid experts who have watched them for years and now selected them? Not having a dig at you, just testing your assumptions - and I agree with much of what you have written.
It’s probably more who was available to us with those picks - there were conensus top 15/20 players still around then, but probably they didn’t fit our needs. You could argue that Redman and Morgan were rated about where we pick them up, but I think its hard to say they are better players right now than some of the sliders (which is not to say they wont be in future). I guess though at the end of the day any players true rating is where they are selected, but each year there seems to always be a Luke Parker or a Dayne Beams who slide for some reason or other.
Hey how about some perspective, the Bulldogs played finals last year!! Our squad is better......I agree, we were taking it up to the top teams regularly a couple of years ago. S$$t Happened. The core of that team hasn’t changed, there’d have to be some strong belief that whatever gap between window and ledge there was still exists, and should do for the next 2-3 years. Fingers crossed all is clear and with a new everything the grounds for player enthusiasm are re-laid. Throw the house at an established homesick gun mid next year and. You. Never. Know.
#cruelandunusualoptimism
#tippa
I know this belongs in the pessimism/realism thread moreso, but sorry, the core of the team has changed. Stanton, Watson and Goddard have gone from being in their prime years to the wrong side of 30. We’ve lost Ryder, Fletcher, Crameri, Melksham, Winderlich, Davey and Carlisle. Dempsey is a shadow of his 2012/2013 self while Belly has become an injury crock. Myers played 20 games in 2013 - only one of two seasons he’s played more than 14 - so the odds of him replicating that are low. Zerret and Colyer have come through, but that doesn’t offset the deterioration in the side.More generally (and answering Frosty), that is part of the reason I think we’re 4-5 years away. We need to transition out Watson, Stanton, Goddard, Bags, Gwilt and to lesser extent probably Howlett, Myers (due to injury) and Dempsey. You look at the sides around about the mark, and usually they take 5-7 years, even for the midfield. Look at WCE this year - a big chunk of the midfield was from 2007 to 2009. Geelong took 8 years from 1999 to 2007. There are exceptions - Collingwood had key elements from the 2008 draft, our 1993 side. But 5-7 years is pretty common. Now, we’ve already started - 2013 & 2014 netted us Zerrett, Langford, Laverde & Fantasia. But that narrows the period from 5-7 years to 3-5 years. Hence my estimate.
Also to Frosty, I don’t think we have pace issues, but not fussed over the Redman/Morgan picks. Don’t know enough about them, and clearly no talls anyone else rated available either.
A lot depends on Hartley/Brown. History isn’t encouraging for talls taken that late. If Dodorro beats the odds and we’ve added two long term good options, then that does solve a lot of medium term and some of the longer term issues. Of course, if Francis transitions into the midfield/Goddard style and we’ve effectively used our first four picks on smalls - that’s a problem. We’ll see how they all develop.
Hodge born 84
Mitchell born 82
Lewis born 86
Watson born 85
Stanton born 86
Goddard born 85
At a glance I’d throw Hurley, Zaha, Heppell, Hooker, Hocking into that ‘core’. I’m a natural pessimist but I’m trying to be positive here, and I don’t think I’m off the mark with my initial read. Of course it’s changed, I should’ve qualified that better, but apart from Ryder I don’t think it’s been anything more substantial than par for course for a mid table team and the fabric hasn’t exactly gone from tartan to paisely. The way we drafted I reckon backs this up.
In other news Saints in the Virgin Lounge Melb this morning. Did not sight Jake, may not have his gold card yet or possibly left it in the dunny somewhere
Ants’ point does make some sense, in that this 2-3 year period just passed we really should have made hay with Watson/Goddard/Stanton in their peaks, and Fletch still around. That’s gone now.
What he doesn’t mention is that those 3 are about our only (important) players in or even near that age group.
Other than there’s Bags (28) and a handful guys who are 26-27 (Hooker, Belcho, Howlett, Bird are all within a year). We’re not heading (any further) off a cliff, at least not because of age.
You can’t view a list as being a single unit of age X - any list. Our list in particular, our best 10 players are strewn between Zerrett who’s 20 and Jobe who’s almost 31.
Ants' point does make some sense, in that this 2-3 year period just passed we really should have made hay with Watson/Goddard/Stanton in their peaks, and Fletch still around. That's gone now.What he doesn’t mention is that those 3 are about our only (important) players in or even near that age group.
Other than there’s Bags (28) and a handful guys who are 26-27 (Hooker, Belcho, Howlett, Bird are all within a year). We’re not heading (any further) off a cliff, at least not because of age.You can’t view a list as being a single unit of age X - any list. Our list in particular, our best 10 players are strewn between Zerrett who’s 20 and Jobe who’s almost 31.
Yep, all fair. I’m also going to hold on to the belief that those 3 seniors still have seriously good footy in them and that we’ll have far better depth in the middle over the next 2-3 years so they won’t need to carry as much of the load. And maybe D Myers doesn’t get injured ever again.
IMHO it’d be extremely foolhardy to rely on them maintaining (or in Jobes case regaining) form
IMHO it'd be extremely foolhardy to rely on them maintaining (or in Jobes case regaining) form
Fortunately we’re not relying on that to be competitive, but we’re hoping for that to give us a real boost.
Also not relying on Myers never being injured again.
But a core of Hepp, Zac, Zaharakis, Colyer, Hocking, Bird, J. Merrett, Fantasia etc being fed by Leuenberger can be competitive in Rd 1, and we should get improvement from there.
IMHO it'd be extremely foolhardy to rely on them maintaining (or in Jobes case regaining) formFortunately we’re not relying on that to be competitive, but we’re hoping for that to give us a real boost.
Also not relying on Myers never being injured again.
But a core of Hepp, Zac, Zaharakis, Colyer, Hocking, Bird, J. Merrett, Fantasia etc being fed by Leuenberger can be competitive in Rd 1, and we should get improvement from there.
no way on jmerrett, i reckon laverde will have a spot.
My memory could be off but I seem to remember a game in 2014 which I think was vs Fark Carlton where we beat them easily with a very small pacey forward line and everyone was thinking we should try it more often…
The day Sammy Lonegan broke Carlton? 2012. What a glorious day at the footy that was.
Chappy
Key forward: brown and potentially francis Key Defender: Brown, Hartley and potentially francis inside mids: Bird, potentially francis and parish outside mids/flank/small forward: Parish, Morgan, Redman, Eades, Tippa Ruck: Berger, GachWe really have now ticked every box we would have wanted to going into the FA/trade/draft period. Ideally i would have liked one more bigger bodied mid prospect but really we have done unbelievably well. Well done keane and disco. 9/10
Of course, if you ignore those 25 and over and only pick each player once it looks a little more worrying…Key forward: …
Key Defender: Hartley, Francis
Ruck: Gach
Inside Midfielder: Parish
Outside Midfielder/flank: Morgan, Redman,
Small forwards: Eades, TippaWe are really, really light for KP and inside mid depth for the under 25 groups, and we didn’t do much to rectify it. As I’ve said elsewhere, they’ve focussed on short-term success, and we better have nailed all those picks (and hopefully Francis can play KP forward) to really mark this draft as a success on a needs basis.
However, we did nail down (hopefully) the small forward position.
Hate to say it, but I think Carlton may have had the best draft. Better picks but not a huge margin.
To say we have focussed on short term success in the draft is complete bs. We brought in 12 new players. 12!
You simply cannot bring in 12 kids, as the depth of talent simply isn’t there to allow it, particularly this year, and if we did, we would get absolutely monstered around the ball as Melbourne did when they went for the all kids approach.
More so, if you look at some of the 12! players we lost, our mature pickups are direct replacements at a similar age bracket in positions where we absolutely needed those replacements - Ruck, KPP, inside mid - as was demonstrated very clearly last year.
Carlisle -> Brown
Giles (Ryder) -> Leuey
Melksham -> Bird
Stein -> Hartley
To bring in these mature age players is not a focus on instant success. That’s a focus on making sure we are not a complete basket case in the short term, whilst we push towards a longer term success in 3-4 years. If we brought in kids for those players, we would be looking squarely in the face of the first spoon in a long long time.
Darcy Parish $34 for rising star.
Petracca favourite at $5
Darcy Parish $34 for rising star. Petracca favourite at $5
Sportsbet must have seen this post and realised they stuffed up.
Now:
Petracca - $6.50
Darcy Moore - $11
Weitering - $12
Mills, Oliver, Hopper - $15
Parish & Laverde- $17
Francis & Fantasia - $26
Langford - $34
Morgan - $67
Redman- $81
McKenna & Long - $101
Eades - $151
Nyuon & Wallis - $251
Laverde is the one there out of our lot.
Give Irish games and watch him win it.
Darcy Parish $34 for rising star. Petracca favourite at $5Sportsbet must have seen this post and realised they stuffed up.
Now:
Petracca - $6.50
Darcy Moore - $11
Weitering - $12
Mills, Oliver, Hopper - $15
Parish & Laverde- $17Francis & Fantasia - $26
Langford - $34
Morgan - $67
Redman- $81
McKenna & Long - $101
Eades - $151
Nyuon & Wallis - $251
Sorry was listening to road to draft podcast. It was crown bet. Probably a free plug for them via afl
Laverde is the one there out of our lot.
Fantasia
Langford!!! Will be a superstar!
Nice to have options.