2015 Can we displace Geelong from the 4?

 

Need our best Key position players on the park most of the time.
It's our most glaring deficiency in respect to depth, and therefore our greatest destabilizer to the team that takes the ground when a couple injuries occur.
Keep Hooker/Hurls/Carslisle/Belly/an improved and stronger JD/even Giles on the park most of the season.
Good times.


Tell me a side that has more than 6 talls that are afl standard??

 

Ceglar McEvoy Hale Lake Roughead Spangher Gibson Frawley

Blicavs Clark Hawkins Taylor Lonergan Simpson McIntosh Rivers

Franklin Tippett Richards Grundy Alex Johnson Pyke Goodes Sam Reid

Cloke Reid Grundy Brown Frost Witts Keeffe 

Natanui Kennedy Darling McGovern Eric McKenzie Brown Schofield Lycett

Ryder Westhoff Schulz Trengove Carlisle Lobbe Hombsch

Sydney did not pick up a big name recruit on a 10 year contract this year... I think they are vulnerable.

We have the potential to push for top 4. Lots of work required, but the raw materials are there. Can we play 90 minutes of decent footy week after week instead of 30 minutes? As Bomba said during the year, we were in the game against sydney based on 20 minutes of “real” footy. That “switch” is an elusive one to hit though. Imo it lies with more kids coming through. Our best cant get much better but plenty of talent with gleeson, the Merretts etc.

For me predicting a top 8

Hawthorn                      - hard to see top 2 falling

Sydney                         - only lost malceski, mitchell to have a good 3rd season.

Port Adelaide             - added Ryder, will lose games (have same issue as EFC will struggle to replace KP when injured

Essendon                            ( rose coloured glasses)

North                          - topped up(but hopefully EFC & Port still better)

Fremantle                  - ageing last crack

Westcoast               - will surprise from outside 8

GoldCoast                - will make finals

 

9-13

Richmond

Adelaide

Geelong

Collingwood

Brisbane

 

14-18

Carlton

GWS

Melbourne

Stkilda

Westernbulldogs

I reckon Brisbane are a fair chance get in.

I think there is a chance we can finish top four... although its extremely slim.

 

Injuries to any top side can change their season and see them drop out... Injuries to our side would devastate us however...

 

 

The teams I REALLY want to fall over are...

 

Richmond

North

Port

Magpies

Blues

Hawks, Sydney, Port and Freo all have us covered IMO. Geelong are always around the mark. I see us finishing 6th-9th.

Swans mates unbiased opinion of our chances next year.

Essendon- whether you like it or not a lot hinges on asada, because if bans come you are stuffed- lets presume no bans and once and for all its gone.  They have one of the best young players in the comp in heppell, daniher is a future star and carlisle is good obviously. Hooker down back works, so pieces are there but  they also have older farts Watson goddard chapman who are still pivotal a  fletcher-  essendon to me look great when things run their way but I think teams can bully them and if you get on top they can falter they can even be run down. To me this is not a top 4 team at all and you need to take rose coloured glasses off.  They need to improve outside run in the midfield group and forward line efficiency. Daniher will be a star but not consistently til about 2017-    list build is optimistic.   Cooney for stuff all is worth a punt, but wont win you a flag. Can hird coach? We find out now

Swans mates unbiased opinion of our chances next year.

Essendon- whether you like it or not a lot hinges on asada, because if bans come you are stuffed- lets presume no bans and once and for all its gone.  They have one of the best young players in the comp in heppell, daniher is a future star and carlisle is good obviously. Hooker down back works, so pieces are there but  they also have older farts Watson goddard chapman who are still pivotal a  fletcher-  essendon to me look great when things run their way but I think teams can bully them and if you get on top they can falter they can even be run down. To me this is not a top 4 team at all and you need to take rose coloured glasses off.  They need to improve outside run in the midfield group and forward line efficiency. Daniher will be a star but not consistently til about 2017-    list build is optimistic.   Cooney for stuff all is worth a punt, but wont win you a flag. Can hird coach? We find out now

 

I agree with all that - its actually a great assessment, except his comments on Daniher. He kicked 28 goals last year and finished the season off strongly culminating with his best game ever in a final when he took on the North backline by himself. He is developing unbelievable well and quickly. We will not have to wait until  2017.

 

Also, Hird can coach. that is not in question IMO.

We’ll probably displace any other top eight team that lacks a functional forward line.

 

This is real crystal ball stuff.   Wadaya reckon?

 

 

If we are to move into the top 4 we :

 

a.  Need to displace an incumbent.

b.  Need to beat off our main rivals who are on the way up.

 

Geelong were the weakest side in the 4.  They have a  problem with an aging list,  in the area of the top players in particular.  Signs were there that they were on a downward trajectory late in 2014.    It is just amazing that they have been in the top 4 since about 2006.  It defies logic that a team can sustain that for 9 years .  Surely they must fall away,  like Collingwood have .

 

Essendon have to improve more than Port Adelaide and North Melbourne and maybe Richmond   This is the main problem IMO.

 

Remote chances?   That Hawthorn,  Freo or Sydney will drop out,  creating 2 places in the 4

 

If we do as you suggest (bolded), I'm leaving...

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-hUV9yhqgY

 

Swans mates unbiased opinion of our chances next year.

Essendon- whether you like it or not a lot hinges on asada, because if bans come you are stuffed- lets presume no bans and once and for all its gone.  They have one of the best young players in the comp in heppell, daniher is a future star and carlisle is good obviously. Hooker down back works, so pieces are there but  they also have older farts Watson goddard chapman who are still pivotal a  fletcher-  essendon to me look great when things run their way but I think teams can bully them and if you get on top they can falter they can even be run down. To me this is not a top 4 team at all and you need to take rose coloured glasses off.  They need to improve outside run in the midfield group and forward line efficiency. Daniher will be a star but not consistently til about 2017-    list build is optimistic.   Cooney for stuff all is worth a punt, but wont win you a flag. Can hird coach? We find out now

 

I agree with all that - its actually a great assessment, except his comments on Daniher. He kicked 28 goals last year and finished the season off strongly culminating with his best game ever in a final when he took on the North backline by himself. He is developing unbelievable well and quickly. We will not have to wait until  2017.

 

Also, Hird can coach. that is not in question IMO.

 

Yep i agree Daniher should Improve more again next year, another preseason under his belt. Plus with carlisles good games wont have the number 1 defender. Just needs to work on his kicking with Lloyd.  In 2017 he will be a gun, but next year he should be a serviceable 30-50 goals forward and step up from this year.

The only thing that will stop Daniher improving next year is the man himself.

 

It's just so obvious that basic strength and conditioning is going to make him a better player.

 

While I agree his kicking was poor early, I think it improved a great deal during the year.  So it doesn't worry me as much now as it did early.  He will obviously have to keep working on it though.  And if he can get that step change that Lloyd did about 4-5 years into his career in terms of goal accuracy, then that'll be awesome.

Interestingly, Freo did not improve their list through free agency. They may struggle to make top 4 given the way they finished the year.

The Cats dam wall is about to bust. Their win/loss was good (although signs of vulnerability started to show) but their percentage was ordinary for a top 4 team.

The Hawks. They’ve got a great coach. Got a game plan other teams struggle against. The question remains … will the ageing list have the drive to go to the well one more time?

The Swans are a hard team to predict. Their GF was so bad that questions remain about their capacity to go again

 

Swans mates unbiased opinion of our chances next year.

Essendon- whether you like it or not a lot hinges on asada, because if bans come you are stuffed- lets presume no bans and once and for all its gone.  They have one of the best young players in the comp in heppell, daniher is a future star and carlisle is good obviously. Hooker down back works, so pieces are there but  they also have older farts Watson goddard chapman who are still pivotal a  fletcher-  essendon to me look great when things run their way but I think teams can bully them and if you get on top they can falter they can even be run down. To me this is not a top 4 team at all and you need to take rose coloured glasses off.  They need to improve outside run in the midfield group and forward line efficiency. Daniher will be a star but not consistently til about 2017-    list build is optimistic.   Cooney for stuff all is worth a punt, but wont win you a flag. Can hird coach? We find out now

 

I agree with all that - its actually a great assessment, except his comments on Daniher. He kicked 28 goals last year and finished the season off strongly culminating with his best game ever in a final when he took on the North backline by himself. He is developing unbelievable well and quickly. We will not have to wait until  2017.

 

Also, Hird can coach. that is not in question IMO.

 

 

I agree with what you are saying about Daniher but the comments were from a guy who supports the Swans, so to him being consistent probably means Daniher kicking >50 goals in a year.

 

If he does that next year I will be amazed but it's not out of the question and certainly not for 2016 but he has to keep improving.

Hawthorn, Sydney, Port and Freo are a level above us. We are in a group of about five teams that could potentially fill a spot in the top four if one of those teams drops off. History suggests that will happen as injuries and form fluctuate. Geelong may drop off, but I’ve been predicting a fall for years. They’ve actually grabbed a couple of handy players this off-season. GC will improve and could contend. Collingwood and Richmond are rising. West Coast and Adelaide historically don’t go too many seasons without playing finals. It’s going to be a log jam. I think if everything goes right for us with regard to ASADA and injuries, we could be a top four side.

A lot will depend how quickly our young players can develop before watson/goddard/chapman/cooney etc become cooked

Hawthorn, Sydney, Port and Freo are a level above us. We are in a group of about five teams that could potentially fill a spot in the top four if one of those teams drops off. History suggests that will happen as injuries and form fluctuate. Geelong may drop off, but I've been predicting a fall for years. They've actually grabbed a couple of handy players this off-season. GC will improve and could contend. Collingwood and Richmond are rising. West Coast and Adelaide historically don't go too many seasons without playing finals. It's going to be a log jam. I think if everything goes right for us with regard to ASADA and injuries, we could be a top four side.

 

 

 

Like me Windy Dill,  I have been expecting Geelong to fall off for 2 years.  They have an amazing ability to hang in the 4,  it must be the culture that Bomber set up there.   But I am pretty certain the fall will start in 2015,  age and equalisation MUST eventually catch up with teams.

 

A few years ago there were several hugely superior teams at the top,  losing only 2 or so games in a year.  Last year the top teams lost 5 games or more.  Its hard to see Geelong, Hawthorn particularly and even Sydney improving on that.,  so I am with you on the "log jam"  idea.

I think we were pretty lucky with injuries last year in comparison to other teams and our previous seasons.

 

Watson out for 9 weeks, Carlisle/Fletcher missing the final and Bellchambers inneffective when available hurt us, for sure, but other than that we just had a few weeks out here and there from a variety of players. Kommer and Browne wouldn't have been starting 18 (or Kommer only just) so I think we were pretty lucky.

 

That kind of year doesn't come around for us very often so don't be surprised if we suffer from more injuries in 2015.

I do not see Freo being a top 4 side next year and I'm kind of amazed they are being talked about in the same breath as Port, Swans & Hawks. Reflecting on the season just gone, I feel those three sides are a class above everyone else and all three are locks for top 4 next year. The last spot will be a fight between us North, and perhaps Richmond, Gold Coast & Freo. I'm not convinced the Cats will making finals next year but like WD and others have said, they just continue to get the job done so can never be underestimated.