2018 FF Original discussion thread


#2106

Injury Wrap - Week 2 Finals

Fudge vs. Stoops

Fudge

Connor Blakely (knee - cartilage) season
Richard Douglas (ankle) test
Michael Hibberd (quad) 1 week
Ben Jacobs (post-concussion syndrome) indefinite

Stoops

Tom Cutler (suspension) available
Taylor Garner (hamstring) test
Jack Graham (shoulder dislocation) test
Tom Hickey (hamstring tendon) season
Matthew Ling (turf toe) season
Jake Lever (knee - ACL) season
Dion Prestia (rib fracture) test
Rhys Stanley (ankle) test

wimmera vs. Allblack

wimmera

Billy Hartung (hamstring) test
Todd Marshall (ankle) 2-3 weeks
Steven May (suspension) available
Darcy Moore (hamstring) 3 weeks
Esava Ratugolea (leg fracture) indefinite
Sam Reid (achilles) 2-3 weeks
James Sicily (wrist fracture) 3 weeks

Allblack

Nat Fyfe (hamstring) 1-2 weeks
Dyson Heppell (“soreness”) test
Darcy MacPherson (leg fracture) 1-2 weeks
Nic Naitanui (knee - ACL) season
Ryan Nyhuis (suspension) available
Jack Silvagni (ankle) test
Joel Smith (collarbone fracture) 3-4 weeks
Harrison Wigg (ankle fracture) season
Peter Wright (knee - MCL) season


#2107

BBFFL Punters Club - Week 2

1.80 Fudge vs Stoops 2.00
1.85 Wim vs Allblack 1.95

Week 2 & 3 rules:

  • Max bet 30 per game
  • Max bet 60 per round
  • Finalists can not bet on their own games
  • Fudge, Stoops, Wim and Allblack can bet 60 on the other game

Account balances:
172 - Wimmera
172 - Awesome Scotty
166 - Fogdog
160 - Blummers
144 - Alber Goodthur
144 - Smoten
143 - Stoops
136 - Vandrs
130 - Redbull
128 - Crazy Bomber
96 - Mad Bomber
96 - Wezza
50 - Allblack


#2108

30 each on Stoops and All Black please


#2109

30 on Fudge
30 on Wim


#2111

Very tight odds this week. Last week was a bookie’s nightmare with some teams getting up at great value.


#2112

$30 on Fudge
$30 on Wimm


#2113

Sorry. Last week you listed they couldn’t so I thought you’d accidentally omitted a word.

Why the change?


#2114

Didn’t want to limit finalists to having one game to bet on this week and next. I suppose I could’ve doubled the permissible bet for finalists, but didn’t think of that.

EDIT: See rule change two posts down


#2115

$30 on Stoops and $30 on Allblack please.


#2116

No one playing this week has laid a bet so late rule change:

  • You can not bet on your own matches
  • If you are in a final this week or next, your max bet doubles to 60 for the other game

#2117

$30 on stoops and $30 on wimm pls


#2118

$30 on Allblack
$30 on fudge

Cheers


#2119

30 on wim, 30 on fudge thanks


#2120

Put my last 50 on Fudge.


#2121

Midfield frequency reviews for the week:

Rd 16’s North Melbourne vs. Gold Coast

Bounces: 26; Miss Rate: 0

North

Dumont 23 wing
Cunnington 22
Jacobs 22
Ahern 16
Clarke 12 wing
Simpkin 10 6w, 4i
Anderson © 9
McDonald 7 wing
Higgins 5
Hrovat 4 wing

Rucks:
Goldstein 24
Daw 1
Zurhaar 1

Notes:
Anderson mainly started off the back of the square, then became an extra mid in general play.
Higgins played as a forward for only the 3rd time in the past 2 seasons of analysed games

Gold Coast

Schoenfeld 20 wing
Swallow 20
Lyons 19
Miller 18 1w
Brodie 17
Sexton 11 (8w, 3i)
Weller 9 wing
Young 6 wing
Martin 5 4w, 1i
Ah Chee 2 wing
Harbrow 2 wing
Holman (FC) 1
Rischitelli (B) 0

Rucks:
Witts 21
Crossley 5

Rd 16’s West Coast vs. GWS

Bounces: 27; Miss Rate: 0

Gaff 24 14i, 10w
Masten 23 wing
Shuey 22 2w
Yeo 20 1w
Hutchings 18 12w, 6i
Redden 17 4w
Ainsworth (FC) 9
Cripps 2 wing

Rucks:
Naitanui 17
Vardy 10

GWS

Kelly 21 13i, 8w
Ward 21 14i, 7w
Taranto 21 14i, 7w
Coniglio 19
Shiel 19 3w
Tomlinson 15 wing
de Boer 10 wing
Perryman 7 5i, 2w
Reid 1 wing

Rucks:
Simpson 16
Tomlinson 5
Lobb 4
Ward 2

Rd 19’s North Melbourne vs. West Coast

Bounces: 22; Miss Rate: 0

Cunnington 20
Dumont 18 wing
Ahern 15
Anderson 15
Higgins 12
Clarke 11 wing
Hrovat 6 wing
Simpkin 4
Turner 3 wing
McDonald 3 wing
Atley 3 wing

Rucks:
Goldstein 21
Daw 1

West Coast

Redden 21 14i, 7w
Masten 20 wing
Gaff 20 13w, 7i
Yeo 19
Hutchings 15
Sheed 10
Rioli 2
Venables 2 1i, 1w
Cripps 1 wing

Rucks:
Lycett 17
Vardy 5

Richmond vs. Geelong

Bounces: 27; Miss Rate: 0

Richmond

Martin 23
Edwards 21 15i, 6w
Cotchin 20
Grigg 19 15w, 4i
McIntosh 17 wing
Lloyd 15 13w, 2i
Higgins 11 1w
Caddy 7
Rioli 2 wing

Rucks:
Nankervis 24
Grigg 3

Notes:

  • Most midfield starts ever for Lloyd in an analysed game. Worth noting only 1 of his previous 5 games this season (Rd 5 - 11 starts) fell in analysed games though, so very possible Rd 7 or 8 had more.
  • Equal most starts for Higgins in analysed games.
  • 2nd highest starts for Edwards in analysed games this season (9 other matches analysed).
  • Second straight game that Menadue has played back and hasn’t received even a token wing start.

Geelong

J.Selwood 23
S.Selwood 21 11i, 10w
Ablett 19 1w
Dangerfield 17
Cunico 16 wing
Thurlow 13 wing
Kelly 7 1w
Menegola 6 5w, 1i
Duncan © 4
C.Guthrie 3 2w, 1i
Parfitt 1 wing

Rucks:
Abbott 24
Henry 3

Notes:

  • Much less starts than usual for Duncan, as he almost exclusively started in his back of the square role. He only started at the opening bounce and for first 5mins of Q3.
  • 1 wing structure for the last - impossible on TV to pick up where the other wing was starting forward or back
  • I didn’t analyse last week, but Menegola had started at 63 of 86 bounces (or 73% attendance) between Rds 16-8. His starts did take a hit with Cunico back in the side in Rd 18, but he still attended 55% of bounces - with Thurlow included this plummeted to 22%.

Sydney vs. Collingwood

Bounces: 24; Miss Rate: 0

Sydney

Hewett 20
Cunningham 19 wing
Parker 19
Kennedy 18
Florent 13 wing
Heeney 12
Robinson 11 10w, 1i
Jack 6 5w, 1i
Dawson 2 1i, 1w

Rucks:
Sinclair 21
Dawson 3

Notes:

  • First ever analysed game that Newman has played and hasn’t had even a token wing start - this includes games last season where he also played back, rather than a wing.
  • Dawson’s 2 starts for the game occurred within his first 5 minutes of game time.
  • Equal most starts for Robinson in analysed games this season with Rd 8’s Hawthorn clash.
  • Lowest starts for Florent in analysed games since Rd 13 (6 games analysed since).
  • No Papley starts for the first time in a month - he and Hayward were sharing the “starting off the back of the square” role at bounces

Collingwood

Pendlebury 22
Adams 21 1w
Phillips 19 wing
Sier 17
Mayne 15 wing
Sidebottom (FC) 8
Hoskin-Elliot 7 wing
Brown 5 4i, 1w
Daicos 5 wing
Thomas 1

Rucks:
Grundy 19
Cox 5

Notes:

  • Hoskin-Elliot played the last term off the wing to allow Mayne to play forward. This is his first start in an analysed game since Rd 8 (this was the 8th game analysed since then).
  • Lowest appearances for Sidebottom in an analysed game since Rd 8

Melbourne vs. Gold Coast

Bounces: 31; Miss Rate: 0

Melbourne

Jones 27 14i, 13w
Harmes 27
Oliver 21 1w
Tyson 20 15w, 5i
Brayshaw 19
JKH 17 wing
Fritsch 12 wing
Petracca 8
Vince 4 wing
Lewis (B) 0

Rucks:
Gawn 23
T.McDonald 8

Notes:

  • Normal structure again this week with the small forwards rotating through the back of the square starting role.
  • Of the 11 Melbourne games analysed, this is an equal most use of the back-up ruck, probably not surprisingly tying with the Alice Springs match.
  • Most ever starts for JKH in analysed games surpassing the 16 in Rd 18 last year
  • Another new benchmark for 2nd most inside starts for Tyson in analysed games this season - he’s now had 7 starts in the last 2 games, compared to 1 in the 4 analysed games before this (Rds 7-8, 14 & 16)

Gold Coast

Weller 27 25w, 2i
Brodie 23
Fiorini 20 3w
Dawson 18
Miller 17
Lonergan (FC) 16
Sexton 16 wing
Bowes 10 wing
Young 5 wing
Ah Chee (CB) 3 wing
Holman (F) 0
Powell (F) 0
Rischitelli (B) 0

Notes:

  • Most inside mid starts for Fiorini in an analysed game
  • Most starts for Dawson in analysed games
  • Most starts for Brodie in analysed games, however this was the lowest percentage of bounces he has attended in the last 3 rounds

#2122

Ouch SPP our for wim


#2123

Hadn’t forgotten about your Duncan question @Blummers32

Outside of Richmond’s small (predominantly pressure built) forward line, the other big chance in the past 2 seasons has been set-ups for bounces - basically it seems that they like the maximum amount of people moving through the square possible. Almost every team now starts bounces with 5 in the forward line and 7 in the backline - seeing the extra has been taken from the forwards, seeing the extra comes from the forward line, most sides rotate their small forwards through the role: sprint through the contest, hopefully impact it in some way, then continue sprinting until they reach their normal spot in the structure - we seem to prefer starting Walla or Fantasia there. That is the general structure but in particular Goodwin, Pyke and Clarkson have used convoluted structures in the past, with Goodwin & Pyke continuing this season.

Not every team operates this way though

Geelong: Plays an extra mid in the role in Duncan who then becomes an extra mid in general play. They briefly experimented with Kelly in the role as well.

Port: Westhoff did it a fair bit last season. This season they mainly use Rockliff (sometimes Ebert) in the role who also becomes a 6th mid in general play.

Fremantle & North: Briefly trialled Lachie Neale & Jed Anderson in the Duncan version of the role mid-season before reverting to normal. Ross has run with the extra forward starting as a 3rd wing rather than back at times as well - something he loved doing at home games last season.

Collingwood: Rotated Treloar & Sidebottom through there who then became 6th mids in general play. Post Treloar injury, they seem to be sticking to normal structures. Crisp typically mans the opposing forward who is tasked with running into the square and runs in with him, then he resumes his backline duties - should’ve been clearer in the explanation @Vandrs, rather than appearing to dismiss it, as it was partially correct.

Hawthorn: One of the biggest proponents of experimental set-ups - last season one of the keys to their late season success was by starting only 3 forwards at bounces, both their wings started in the backline with the extra forward and the 2 other forwards started on the wings, so they could temporarily mind the opposing teams wings. Every team let them get away with it, until Beveridge in Rd 23, who pushed his wings forward to cover their wings at bounces - starting with 8 forwards and no wings. This season we haven’t had anything that extreme but O’Meara had been used in the Duncan version of the role until 4-6 weeks ago, and Isaac Smith has also been used in the Duncan role when they want to give Morrison a game on the wing.

Adelaide: Last season, Pyke started his wingers 20m closer to their backline to help in the event of a quick clearance. This season they have 2 completely different structures: a normal structure where Betts or Gallucci starts off the back of the square and Seedsman & Atkins start normally on the wing. Or structure 2 where they start with 4 forwards, have Atkins & Seedsman both start off the back of the square and the 2 forwards (typically Lynch and a small) mind their opponents for bounces - Lynch sprints towards the forward line and the other runs into the bounce to provide another option. Atkins & Seedsman resume their wing roles at the earliest stoppage - structure-wise Pyke seems to be fine with their opponents being free until then.

Melbourne: Not sure whether Goodwin was the first to start the craze, but he was probably the first to start using mids in the role, as he was starting his wings (Lewis & Tyson) off the back of the square before Clarkson & Pyke. This season they typically have 2 structures (early doors they also used last seasons structure): normal with the back of the square being one of their small forwards or convoluted - the far winger is an actual wing, the camera side winger is the 6th forward with Tyson or Jones starting off the back of the square. The place-holder wing is instructed to man Tyson/Jones’s opponent until Tyson or Jones gesture (raised hand) to Spargo/ANB etc that they’re right to resume their wing duties and manning that opponent - the handover is made, then the forward resumes their forward role. Not sure what happened in the Geelong game, but it definitely broke down as at times - no handover was made despite stoppages so Tyson instead became a 6th mid, at others when Tyson was resting, JKH was in the role and played it as a normal forward would - sprinting through the contest to the forward line. They’ve resumed normal structures since the loss, so possibly they identified something amiss in the review (or realised how convoluted it was).


#2124

$20 on Allblack
$20 on Stoops


#2125

Seriously would have dropped him anyway.
He’d have been on my bench instead of Grey.


#2126

$60 on Wimm please