2019 FF Original Draft Discussion Thread


#383

Thanks Wez.

I enjoy doing them, more so to show what I was thinking than which specific player I took. We can’t really evaluate people’s drafts without knowing the overall intentions.

Reading back on it now, I think I took one too many speculative picks, largely due to the Lavender error. Oh well, so be it.


#384

Hey @Windy_Dill, think you just scored another long term knee injury with Pickett.


#385

I thought that too, did a patella in preseason?


#386

His next pick will be Harley Bennell.


#387

Them he’ll trade for Picken and Roberton


#388

I think down the track he’ll be a very very good player onfield. Whether that translates to FF value I’m not sure. But in a keeper league, fourth or fifth forward with possible ruck eligibility in years to come could be very useful. We’ll see.


#389

Pick 2 - Bailey Smith ©
Tough decision as I changed from originally wanting to pick Rankine. Watched the GC vs WB game and with both players showing glimpses, it was hard to separate. Decided on Smith in the end as I believe has the potential to be a midfield gun, which is an area of my team that needs to be addressed. Also believe will play a lot of games this year under Beveridge which will help my team out.

Pick 20 - Ely Smith ©
A lot of potential and another C that I can look at. Not sure if he will feature much in the much revamped and improved Lions side, but willing to be patient.

Pick 56 - Jack Petrucelle (C/F)
Featured in Eagles pre-season and has shown glimpses. Still young, will be hard to break into the Eagles lineup but a lot of potential.

Pick 74 - Tom Hickey ®
Needed backup when Bellchambers gets rested, played both JLT games and believe he will work in tandem with Vardy as Nic Nat still injured for most of the season. Can average 70-80.

Pick 92 - MHore (B)
Mature draftee from the Dees that I think will feature a bit this year.

Pick 110 - Justin McInerny (B/C)
My speculative Sydney pickup which I tend to make every draft. Played during pre-season and with B/C status, can be handy down the line.

Pick 127 - Harrison Himmelberg (F)
Re-drafted as forward depth with the potential to increase his average this year from 60-70.

Pick 145 - Jonathon Marsh (B)
Liked the look of him when he was at Collingwood, looks like he will get an early opportunity to play at St Kilda with a lot of defensive injuries.

Pick 157 - Ben Stratton
Back depth. Averages 50, but being made Hawthorn FC, could that result in a slight increase in scoring? Doubt it.

Pick 167 - Andrew Phillips (R/F)
Played both of Carlton’s JLT games with some strong showings, and the probability of being their #1 ruck option whilst Kreuzer is down. Handing R/F dual status.

B: MHore, Henry, Mills
HB: Mayes, Cole, Short
C: Bowes, Papley, Horlin-Smith
HF: McCarthy, Stephenson, Gowers
F: Brown, Bailey, Himmelberg
R: Bellchambers, Smith, De Goey
INT: Hickey, Cunico, Marsh, Phillips

The main issue I have had in previous years was the struggle to field a full team for R1, felt very confident most of my team was stable leading into the draft, giving me the opportunity to concentrate on drafting 1-2 midfield Cs and finding depth to be competitive throughout the season. Still have the likes of Hartlett, Laverde & Gallucci to come back at some point of the year which will hopefully help me move back up the ladder.


#390

Oh, yeah.
Would have liked H0re, too.


#391

Nice draft and good team moving forward, Jefferson.

First three picks all look good for the future, though none may play regularly for a while.


#392

Doh!

Coaches will have a field day reviewing my draft.


#393

He was on my radar! Could come good and be a steal.


#394

Thank you very much everyone for another speedy draft. That concludes my main area of responsibility for the season, so I’ll hand things over to joint showrunners fogdog & Crazy Bomber.


#395

I finally had some time to put my thoughts together on my drafting.

Planning leading into the draft…
My strategy was dependant on injuries to my keepers. Marshall hadn’t played JLT1 and Darcy was a late out due to injury so my ruck stocks could have been thin for the first few rounds. I was considering Sandilands or Mumford even though he’d miss round 1, but leaning towards taking Pruess or Billy Longer / Lewis Pierce somewhere in the draft. Once Marshall played so well and Darcy completed JLT2 without further injury, I didn’t need to address my ruck issue.
Billy Stretch and Brent Daniels were two players who missed on keeper spots that I would have liked to get back during the draft if possible.
I was also willing to take a gamble on Harley Bennell somewhere in the draft if the opportunity came up.
As far as rookies were concerned, I wasn’t expecting any of my top 15 to 20 rookies to be available at my first pick. I was keen to get McFayden somewhere and hopefully Rowbottom as well with a few late picks in the draft. Jack Ross, Will Golds, Curtis Taylor and a few others were also in the mix. The aim was to get two of these guys somewhere.

At the time the draft was beginning, my 22 for round 1 looked like this:
FF Neal-Bullen, Marshall, Jamie Elliott
HF Mitch Wallis, Robbie Gray, ???
R Sean Darcy, Mitch Duncan, ???
C David Swallow, Jack Viney, Dayne Beams
HB Luke Ryan, Oscar Allen, Riley Bonner
FB Nic Newman, ???, ???
Bench Riley Knight
Doubtful Zach Tuohy, Nick Haynes
Unavailable Mater (susp), Jed Anderson (inj), Callan Ward (inj)

After last year’s injury debacle, I was mindful that I needed to fill in the question marks where possible throughout the draft.

Scanning through delisted players, I thought Taylor Walker, Callum Brown, Charlie Spargo, Jack Watts, Ricky Henderson, Sam Gray, Jack Lonie, Darcy Moore, Eric Hipwood, Todd Marshall, Mason Wood, Jack Graham, Daniel Venables, Stefan Giro, Jeremy Finlayson, Quinton Narkle, Ed Phillips, Ben Ronke, Jarryd Roughead, Alex Dance, Sam Wright, Charlie Dixon, Matt Scharenberg, Matt Guelfi, Eddie Betts, Harry Taylor, Taylor Duryea, Ryan Lester, Daniel Lloyd, Jack Silvagni, Joel Smith, Jake Carlisle, Josh Bruce and Jon Patton were all candidates to fill some of those question mark spots. Even though there were injured players on that list, I kept them there just incase the younger players I was targeting were taken. As the draft went ahead, I just kept adding a few players along the way or dropping players along the way who didn’t quite fit the draft priorities at each pick.

Pick 27 - Brett Bewley C
The slider I was hoping to get - Bailey Scott
Others in the mix - Michael Gibbons, Jack Graham

I was really hoping for Scott to make it to this pick. Especially when he made it past 25. Scott was in my top 10 picks this year. I would have taken him ahead of Rozee, Hately, Duursma and Thomas. Unfortunately, he was taken the very pick before mine. It came down to Begley vs Gibbons. I didn’t know what to think of Gibbons JLT1 as we seemed to leak DT scores through the comp. Begley had barely played JLT at all but he did show some capacity to score well in short spurts in JLT1. JLT2 was underwhelming as was Gibbons. I took a look at their highlight packages and I really liked Bewley’s left foot kick and he’s deceptively fast. He’s a good build and even though the flexibility of Gibbons as an FC, I think Begley has more upside in him.

Pick 45 - Harry Jones CB
The slider I was hoping to get - Any one of Jack Graham, Charlie Spargo, Billy Stretch
Others in the mix - Francis Watson

I was hoping I’d at least get one of Spargo or Stretch, but I wasn’t expecting it. I tracking Jones all of last year but with my injuries I never had the opportunity to grab him late in the season. He also wasn’t cracking into the seniors team. His JLT form was very good as expected in JLT1. I think he got named as an emergency for JLT2. He might be a small chance to play round 1, but this pick was more for later on in the season when I think he’ll get some more opportunities. I really liked this pick and thought he’d get more opportunity than Watson.

Pick 63 - Ethan Hughes B
The slider I was hoping to get - Francis Watson
Others in the mix - Mason Wood, Stefan Giro, Quinton Narkle

I had two spots to fill in my backline and Jones wasn’t going to fill it in round 1. Ethan Hughes sort of came out of nowhere. I’ve never tracked him and I honestly thought he was a lockdown defender at Fremantle. Upon further research, I found he’d played some midfield through WAFL and was likened a little bit to Luke Ryan but not as good intercept marking and kicking. His JLT form was too good to overlook as he was top 10 DT scorer in both Freo in games. It appears he’ll juggle the ‘3rd man up / loose defender’ role with Ryan through the year. I think he’s a lock to play round 1 so he takes one of those spots in my 18.

Pick 68 - Mason Wood F
The slider I was hoping to get - no one slid.
Others in the mix - Stefan Giro, Quinton Narkle, Callum Brown

Given I’d already taken Bewley, I couldn’t really justify using another pick on a C so it was likely that Riley Knight plays midfield for me in round 1 meaning I needed a forward. I picked Wood up five years ago and quickly traded him away. I needed someone to play round 1 in my forward line so he got the nod in front of Giro (who I really rate as a DTer) and Narkle. I’m very confident Wood plays in all senior games, the only question mark is whether he can stay away from injuries. He’s not your normal key forward. He can push up to the wings and did play on a wing early in has career.

Pick 81 - Callum Brown FC
The slider I was hoping to get - Quinton Narkle
Others in the mix - Will Hayes, Jack Lonie

I was looking for backline options, but I was considering to gamble a bit to take a lesser defender later on than take what was available. I could go a bit speculative at this pick and Brown’s JLT form was too good to ignore. I didn’t think Dunlop would delist him. I don’t think he plays round 1, but he should get 10 to 15 games and develop further.

Pick 99 - Daniel McStay FB
The slider I was hoping to get - Jeremy Finlayson, Taylor Duryea
Others in the mix - Will Hayes, Jack Lonie, Sam Gray, Josh Bruce

It was time to fill in the second question mark in my backline. I didn’t really like many of the defenders available and it’s likely that McStay ends up delisted at some stage this year, but I think his best footy is in the forwardline than in the backline. He’s being played there through JLT and with Brisbane expected to improve, I think he’ll thrive and do better than expected. He’s in Brisbane’s best 22, will get games and the bonus of being a FB means I had enough flexibilityto shift players forward and back / forward and midfield to cover any gaps through the early parts of the season. This meant I could be a bit more adventurous with my remaining picks.

Pick 109 - Connor McFadyen
The slider I was hoping to get - Will Hayes
Others in the mix - Callum Wilkie, Sam Wright, Harry Taylor, Jack Lonie, Sam Gray, Josh Bruce

I was tempted to take Sam Wright here. I’d overlooked Will Hayes twice because I didn’t really need a midfielder so I thought I’d go with the best defender available. I think Sam Wright could average 70 if he can keep away from injuries, but I was gambling that I could get a 10 point lesser scoring defender with a later pick. I monitored the rookies I wanted to take with late picks and most were gone at this point. It made sense to me to take the young guys I rated now before they were taken. McFadyen is a favorite of mine. He was injured through pre-season and I’m confident he’ll smash NEAFL and get a few games towards the end of the season. It was a reach and I’m not sure if anyone else was looking to take him, but I felt he needed to be taken here.

Pick 116 - Callum Wilkie B
The slider I was hoping to get - no one slid
Others in the mix - Sam Wright, Easton Wood, Harry Taylor, Jack Lonie

Wright ended up being listed on the official injury list so I started looking elsewhere. Wilkie is a massive punt. I liked his form through SANFL finals last year and he reminded me a lot of Luke Ryan from the highlights I saw on him. What I saw at SANFL level didn’t replicate during JLT but with the injury to Roberton being out, I gambled that he might get an opportunity.

Pick 147 - Curtis Taylor FC
The slider I was hoping to get - Daniel Lloyd, Brent Daniels
Others in the mix - Harley Bennell, Bryan Miers, Alex Sexton, Todd Marshall, Jake Kolodjashnij

After taking two speculative picks, I was going to take either the best defender or best forward at this pick. Looking at my round 1 team, I thought I could go speculative one last time. I was considering giving Bennell a lifeline here, but thought I need to close that door. I’m a fan of Taylor and think he will get games this year at North. He has had a restricted pre-season but he has shown positive signs at the VFL practise matches. I’ll keep an eye on his VFL form early in the season. If it’s positive, I hang on a bit longer, but if it looks like he needs the rest of the year to develop further, I’ll have to delist him.

Pick 158 - Nathan Broad B
The slider I was hoping to get - no one slid
Others in the mix - Sam Taylor, Aaron Sandilands, Andrew Phillips

I didn’t need any more forwards. I had far too much. 14 players on my list are F eligible, 17 are C eligible and only 9 were B eligible. It made sense that my last pick was a defender. Having said that, I still toyed with the idea of going with a ruck backup just incase something happened to Darcy or Marshall fell out of favour at the Saints. I decided to just take the defender and deal with any ruck coverage off free agency. Nathan Broad was a no brainer. His JLT form was very good, but he has history that when the intensity is low, he can score pretty well. But when it’s a close tussle, he disappears or becomes a lockdown defender and hands out 30 or 40 score games.

In hindsight, I’m okay with Bewley. Jones may turn out a very good pick like Marshall was for me last year but could easily have trouble breaking into the Hawthorn team. I’m content with Ethan Hughes in the short term. I probably would prefer Narkle ahead of Mason Wood even though Narkle isn’t exactly a round 1 lock. McStay was purely for a round 1 pick, so I think that will bite me and I probably should have gone with Sam Gray instead. It would have been better if I took one of McFadyen, Wilkie or Taylor and used the other picks on Sam Wright and Shaun McKernan (I actually didn’t realise he was available). The last pick was always going to be a player who can play round 1 and could end up on the FA scrapheap at some stage in the season, so I’m not worried about how Broad goes.

I’d probably give myself a C for now. In hindsight I shouldn’t have traded pick 9 for David Swallow as I would have loved to have taken Butters or Scott at that pick. Having said that, my strike rate with first round picks has been pretty poor historically.

My 22 for round 1 looks like this:
FF Neal-Bullen, Marshall, Jamie Elliott
HF Mitch Wallis, Robbie Gray, Mason Wood
R Sean Darcy, Mitch Duncan, Riley Knight
C David Swallow, Jack Viney, Dayne Beams
HB Luke Ryan, Oscar Allen, Riley Bonner
FB Nic Newman, McStay, Ethan Hughes
Bench Brett Bewley, Harry Jones, Callum Brown, Nathan Broad
Doubtful Zach Tuohy, Nick Haynes
VFL / NEAFL Connor McFayden, Curtis Taylor, Callum Wilkie
Unavailable Matera (susp), Jed Anderson (inj), Callan Ward (inj)

The bench doesn’t look too promising for round 1 but two of those should at least play. I’ve got enough flexibility to shift players all over the place and bring Broad in should I be short somewhere.

I’m really waiting for round 2 or 3 when Tuohy, Haynes, Matera and Jed Anderson should be available for selection. I think Callan Ward is going to be a longer injury than currently stated by GWS. If he’s back before round 5, then it’s a bonus, but i wouldn’t be surprised if he’s out until round 10.

In the past I’ve used draft picks to suit succession planning and haven’t really done too well. Robbie Gray, Dayne Beams, Callan Ward and Zach Tuohy are all getting on in age and need to be replaced at some stage over the next few years.

Of the draft picks, I think Callum Brown and Brett Bewley could be keepers by the end of the season. It’s more than likely that those two challenge Nick Haynes, Riley Knight, Oscar Allen, Riley Bonner, Matera for a keeper spot than push out my older players. As per previous years (excl last year), I’m hoping to find one or two players off FA that’ll challenge for a keeper spot.

I’m not sure if I’m a top 8 contender this year. It all hinges on the development of Darcy. If he averages 80, then I’ll be able to sneak in to 7th or 8th. Once he becomes the 90+ scorer that I’m confident he can become, then I’ll have the point of difference that’ll help me bridge the gap on the top teams. I do have a a lot of best 22 and fringe players mixed with some developing players at lower levels so the list is probably in a bit of a holding pattern whilst trying to refresh the list at the moment.


#396

Thanks Dunners! Can we pick up our LTIs on UF? Or wait for them to come off waivers?


#397

Great write up, Blummers.

Don’t underestimate McStay, I think he’s a very good pick for list balance and his numbers are climbing. I’ve tracked him for a few years, having had him in the other league as a 1st and 2nd year player. (Probably a story in that, I think I tend to go for KP’s a few years too early as a rule) . I’d have drafted him for sure with my Schache or Garlett picks.

I’m not familiar enough with this league and the strength of squads to have a valid opinion, but that looks like a solid lineup that just needs a couple of those fringe players like Wood and Allen to come good with decent years.


#398

My doubts are more to do with his ceiling than anything else.
Schache was doing well late last year. He was getting up to the wings and getting some cheap marks and kicks. He could be an 80 to 85 scorer at his peak if all things go well.
At best I think McStay will be a 75 scorer. Not this year but in a year or two.
That’s not quite good enough if you want to challenge for a premiership.
Look at Windy and Neela’s lists, you’ll need to be averaging 1550ish with the odd 1600 to 1700 explosion here and there.
Those two have guys who can go plutonic (Tom Mitchell, Dangerfield, Gaff, etc) but my team is generally a bit more even across the board with only Beams and Duncan capable of massive scores.
The make up of my list is more along the lines of Fudge and Smoten, where I try and get many players in the 90s to 100 range and try to overwhelm with numbers and consistency.
I think my team could average 1500 if everything went well with injuries, but I’m more likely to be in the 1450 to 1470 range. So I’m around 80 behind the pace.
I just don’t see how a 75 scorer like McStay can help me bridge the gap to Neela and Windy’s previous pace.

A guy like Oscar Allen will help me bridge the gap though if he develops the way I think he will. I see him potentially hitting 90 in his peak years and being a solid 80 scorer in three years time (if not earlier). Injuries permitting, this guy is a perfect modern tall who can be Roughead like and score well without being a goal kicker.
If Bennell wasn’t injured in the last three years, he combined with Robbie Gray could have given me a forward line that would cause trouble. Elliott’s 80 would have been handy as well. Having forwards and rucks who can tonne up with defenders that can average around 80 were my best chance to bridge the gap. And I just couldn’t quite get it to work. I did well enough to make prelim finals on the back of some luck through finals, but in the end it just wasn’t quite enough

I don’t need to do it straight away, but I do need to retool my list a bit. I’ve pretty much wasted away five years of first round draft picks with poor choices or trades and it’s now catching up to me.


#399

Fudge’s list won a premiership last year :wink: I really like Allen, it may be a few years but he’s going to be a player for you @Blummers32


#400

I’ll do a few snappy draft reviews for a few teams. No need to return the favour.

First up is my old mate Windy Dill, who we’ll call Dill from now on as this review suggest

Pick 10 - Tarry Thomas - Hmmm not terrible, but not great either. I think there were a couple of better options on the board who will porbably be better DT’ers in the future like Jones and Butters. I probably would have looked at Cousins for where you list is as he could help you challenge again in the coming years.

Pick 28 - Corey Ellis - That’s a bit better. Ellis couldn’t get a look in a the tigers but I think he can play. I’ll give this pick a pass.

Pick 46 - Harrison Wigg - Well this is a shocker.You probably could have grabbed him with your LTI pick and not looked like a fool twice. I presume he’ll be first delisted.

Pick 82 - Nick Hind - Bit of a gap in picks here Dill. Did you trade your 4th round pick for Sam Murray last year? Don’t mind this pick cause I was going grab him at my next pick so he must be good,

Pick 100 - Tom Williamson - This is a pretty good pick. Still young, gets games, and with Docherty out another year he should continue to improve.

Pick117 - Tommy Sheridan - Mmmmmm naaaarrrrr. Can’t see him cracking the GWS side very often this year.

Pick 135 - Nathan Hrovat - See above but swap GWS for Norf.

Pick 148 - Conor Glass - This one is okay again. Looks to slowly building into someone who can average 40 for ya.

Pick 159 - Hamish Brayshaw - Probably better options out there still to take a risk on. This guy is the Troy Selwood version of the Brayshaws.

Pick 168 - Neville Jetta - Handy 40 points per week depth.

Pick 182 - Jarrod Pickett - The Dill strikes again!!!

All in all there is a smattering of good picks in there. Ellis, Hind and Williamson look the pick of the bunch. You had a couple of fresh airies in there though that I’m sure you are regretting. I’d rate your drafting a B-.


#401

■■■■■■ hell, that’s generous.

No offence, Dll, we all have a draft shocker every now and then.
I had a trade shocker last period…and the one before that.

Best name in the comp is Trust The Process.
So much hard work can be undone so quickly. You have to ignore the naysayers and build to your plan and not get tempted by candy.


#402

Now I’ll have a look at Albert Thurgood.

This was a big draft for Albert after accumulating 6!!! first round draft picks.

Pick 3 - Izac Rankine - Top 5 talent who went accordingly. Although I may have tossed a coin between him and Rozee. Both should be jets though. You were probaly hoping Smith lasted 1 more pick?

Pick 5 - Nack Lukosios - You like the Gold Coast flavor? Again a nice pick. I’m happy you didn’t take Clark though.

Pick 9 - Zavier Duursma - He may be your best pick up in the draft. He looks like a beauty.

Pick 14 - Liam Stocker - Sorry not sold here. I know Carlton rate him, but it’s Carlton we’re talking about!! Ely Smith or Sparrow may have been better options.

Pick 16 - Jez McLennen - ■■■■ me!! So many 1st rounders!!! More Gold Coast kids!! Like this pick better than Stocker and he should be a nice player of HB.

Pick 18 - Xavier O’Halloran - Now you’re just taking the P155!!! Again a nice pick. I can see him getting a few games early in the year.

Pick 19 - Luke Foley - What is this a priority pick? All rookies so far. I think I would’ve looked a some experience at this point. Someone like Cousins, Saad, Corey Ellis or Miles ( He’s from the Gold Coast to you know?)

Pick 33 - Jordan Roughead - Now the experience! Probably a bit early in the draft for mine. He should play most weeks but doesn’t score very highly. Darcy Moore was a better option in a similar role.

Pick 35 - Matt Guelfi - Don’t mind it. Worsfold seems to like him, just not sure he’ll be a big DT’er. He may also be in and out of the side a bit this year.

Pick 44 - Mark Hutchings - Whilst his scores have been okay he may start to get squeezed out of the Eagles side. Did you need Midfiled depth?

Pick 181 - Kamdyn McIntosh ( LTI) - Good depth. Plays every week and can through in a score ever now and then.

This was a big draft for you. Most of your first round picks should pan out, there may of been a couple of better options early on. Guess we won’t really know how good this draft has been for you for about 3-4 years. So on that basis I’ll give it an A.