Perhaps you are right, in more ways than one please read page 22 of today Herald Sun.
I’m not picky…
Recently at the end of round 8 …
2018 Collingwood were 11th with 4 wins. Played in a GF.
2017 Richmond were 7th with 5 wins. Won.
2016 North Melbourne were top of the ladder in round 8 and were there for 9 weeks before finishing 8th. They had 7 wins by round 8.
2015 Hawthorn had 4 wins and were well down the ladder before winning the GF.
It’s early days peeps.
Eighth after our barnstorming win over Freo, just gotta boost our %.
Perfectly set up for Dreamtime game to cement our spot in the finals.
We’re tenth. Ump competency vs Pies and Bin Chickens and we’re equal fifth. Sigh.
Teh bin chickens…
Fark I love that nickname. (Apologies to our resident bin chicken diggers).
And if we started the year more strongly with say a win against St Kilda we’d be right in the mix.
Need to hold our nerve and find our better game from here on to give ourselves a look at finals. We showed patches of good footy against Fremantle, but I was wondering how this team was going to be a finals contender. Felt we had a decent gap to fill up.
And yes I know it’s the Lid Off thread so I’ll finish with gee we are super and we are so gunna win everything.
Okay this will be a bit of both - Lid Off/Lid On post…a little bit of Monday fat to chew on. Just stating what needs to be done from here on in to make finals or top 4.
After looking at the final Home&Away ladders from 2010 onwards it seems like teams generally need 12 wins to make finals…and 16 wins to make top 4.
After 9 rounds so far, we’re 4 wins, 5 losses.
With 13 games left to play…
So, generally we would need to win 8 from 13 to make finals (realistic)…or 12 from 13 to make top 4 (pretty bleak IMO).
Looking ahead to the rest of the season we have:
- 4 games against top 6 sides (Rich, WC, GWS, Coll)
- 5 games against middle 6 sides (Haw, Adel, Port, Dogs, Freo)
- 4 games against bottom 6 sides (Carl, Syd, Roos, Suns)
We obviously need 4 wins from the bottom teams and then win at least half of the remaining 9 games against top 12 teams to qualify for finals.
Now here’s where I will be a bit Lid Off. There’s not much we can do now about the umpire tragedies that have occurred to us. But we can strongly argue that in a normal world we should have won against Collingwood and Swans and should be sitting at 6-3 alongside Pies, Lions, Richmond and West Coast in equal 2nd spot. Yes, you can’t change the past and we’ve played bad, but so has most of the competition in a very competitive/scrappy/defensive year. At least we can argue that on CURRENT form, we are good enough to be up alongside most teams. And we know we have a hell of a lot of improvement in us.
Another thing to ponder about (if you really want to dream) is that in 2017 & 2018 you have only needed 15 wins for top 4. One could argue that in 2019 it is even closer…perhaps 14 wins with superior percentage could sneak a top 4 finish.
My glass half full tips:
Richmond - LOSS - But it’s 50/50…they’re gaining momentum but they’re still missing alot of key players. Now is as good a time as any to knock them off.
Carlton - WIN
Hawthorn - WIN - has Clarko but they are inconsistent due to lack of talent
WC (Away) - LOSS - 50/50 but they have home advantage
GWS (Home) - LOSS
Swans (Home) - WIN
North - WIN
Crows (Away) - WIN - 50/50 but they have home advantage
Suns (Away) - WIN
Port (Home) - WIN
Dogs - WIN
Freo (Away) - WIN
Pies - LOSS - 50/50 we showed we’re good enough to beat them.
Leaves us with 13 wins. Get our ■■■■ together and we could beat West Coast or Collingwood to give us a shot at top 4. Season is wide open if we grind out some more wins over the next 5 weeks. Then start to build and get somewhat of a decent gameplay/belief going. Have a big last 2 months and be a form team going into finals.
7 wins in a row woah there Billy boy.
I enjoy coming back a few times a day to re-read this post.
Ahhh an optimist
It is the lid off thread after all.
Enjoy them. These type of posts stop appearing after round 12 or so.
Actually got a very good feeling about this game.
Can see us lighting up the G and running away with the win.
Was hoping for the 100+ option, but didn’t want to get too far ahead of myself.
I’m assuming it’ll be greasy so have toned down expectations to six and a bit goals our way
Don’t want to be unrealistic.
It’s hard to take the poll seriously if it doesn’t have that option.