Lots of teams come from nowhere to play finals. You just need a relatively injury-free run and the players you expect to come on to make real steps forward.
I sincerely hope that if we do come good, then all the persistent naysayers just either ■■■■ right off, or consistently write that they were wrong and express contrition.
I rarely start a season with expectation, but rather with hope. Who saw we were going to be that good in 1993 or 1999, and in neither of those seasons, did we have a great run with injury, losing a swag of key players before the '93 finals, and Hird and Lucas for most of 1999.
The only arguments I’ve seen (and not necessarily on here) are ones saying we’ve lost Daniher, Fantasia, McKenna and Saad so we’ll have to be worse.
Pretty dumb, lazy arguments, when the only one of those guys who contributed anything positive in 2020 was Saad.
I think there is genuine reason for hope…not necessarily optimism. The biggest possible factor imo could be the coaches driving standards rather than letting the players do it.
I think if we had a good run and got some exciting wins (as per usual) we could sneak into the 8 or finish around the 9th-12th mark, give or take. But that would require playing all the golden oldies and not properly developing the kids. I’d rather finish 14th and have Jones/Eyre/Reid/Cox start to take shape then scrape into the 8 personally.
If someone told me that we’d finish bottom next year and find one or two long term key forwards I’d take it every day of the week. In my mind, find some key forwards next year, grab the best mid in the draft we can next year, then find some pace in 2022 with the Davey twins. Hopefully we can unearth a rookie or two along the way to fill the other gaps, like small defender.
It’s unsurprising that last season’s bookies predictions aren’t easily available.
But as far as media predictions went GWS were certainties Hawthorn were heavily favoured, and only a handful had Port in the eight.
Virtually no one had St Kilda in the eight, whereas in hindsight they were a good thing.
These things are invariably a herd mentality
Just like if one bookie shortens the odds on a nag dramatically watch the others follow.
And vice versa
So another way to phrase your question;
To lemming or not to lemming?
FWIW here were the 2020 premiership odds from a post of mine in early January…I got pretty close with my ladder forecast for Essendon 2020, and I included a long-term forecast of lowly ladder positions, so I’m just going to boast by posting that again😁 :
And here are the current 2021 premiership odds:
Richmond $4
Geelong $5
Brisbane $8
West Coast $9
Port Adelaide $9
Western Bulldogs $13
Collingwood $14
St Kilda $17
GWS $17
Melbourne $26
Carlton $34
Hawthorn $51
Fremantle $51
Essendon $67
Sydney $81
GC $81
Adelaide $81
North Melbourne $201
When I consider that the 13th place finish last year probably flattered us (our % was worse than that)…we’ve brought in lots of tall draftees, but they traditionally have negligible impact in their first year of AFL football…that leaves me asking whether Caldwell/Hind/Wright/Perkins will make a big difference in 2021…yeah, not for me…14-15th for 2021 is my current feeling, unless something revolutionary happens over the summer.
There’s no reason we can’t have a great year. We have the talent, we have had for ages. If the coaches can get the game plan right and the players can get their heads right we should have a great year.
I predict a 1 - 7 start… yikes that’s a rough draw.
12th finish
Tippa leading goal kicker
7 trade demands
2 retirements
Zerrett B&F
Draft the next big player the comp had ever seen
Wins Crichton: McGrath
Kicks most goals: Stringer
Most improved: Parish
Best Rookie: Perkins
Best trade in: 2mp
Back in form: Smith
Best senior debut: Cox
Ladder finish: 10th
Look, we were royally awful in 2020. But when it clicked, it really worked.
The dwindling Worsfold, heart a million miles from Windy Hill, was clearly in check out mode. Rutten was no doubt keeping it all on the straight and narrow and surely took steps to not rock the boat. Injury upon injury from before the season even started. Hub life, McKenna’s issues, Joe lingering in the background. There are so many reasons why 2020 was utterly forgettable for us to a greater degree than many other clubs.
Despite that, we did have some decent games and did show what could happen when everyone was on the same page.
We will be better in every way in 2021. How much better is still the question. Decent draw, providing we can get through the first tough five or six weeks without too much mental damage. The run home is almost as good as it gets.
Ridley, McGrath, Parish, Draper represent real organic growth. I expect better seasons from Walla, Stringer, a fit Stewart and a focused and injury free Laverde.
Hooker and Hurley will dig deep and provide stability while the younger defenders learn their craft.
A lot to look forward to and with any luck, a season where real progress is obvious.