Future 1st I reckon is achievable.
A future first is essentially a second given all the Tassie picks.
But I still doubt any team would be willing to give that up for Ridley. The guy essentially hasnt played in more than three years.
Yes, but when he does, he is very good.
Can imagine a Brisbane or Gold Coast being very happy to have him. And as you say, a future 1st isn’t as valuable in coming years due to Tassie.
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If Butters nominates Bulldogs then Port will not be getting what they want for him. Based on current ladder position that’s pick 13 and maybe 2 x F1s. I think they will need both pick 4 and 13 to match a Cochrane bid at 1.
I think it will be much easier to trade further into 2027 with Tassie coming in next year.
We will get Bewick just with our draft picks next season without any extras
Reckon you’d only possibly look at a trade after bidding. A club trading out multiple picks for pick 1 gains a lot less from placing bids, but there’s still some value for the club getting the multiples (with picks likely to come in).
ESS: Nominally Starting with pick 1 (R1) and pick 19 (R2) - compo pick would be pick 20
Other: Nominally starting pick 3 and pick 11
ESS: bid at 1 & 2 we’d have pick 3, pick 17 (R2), pick 18 (bid comp)
Other: pick 5 and pick 11 (wouldn’t move)
3 + 18 roughly equivalent points wise to 5 + 11 and I’d want that weighted heavily in our favour.
Can’t see it unless we were happy with anyone we ranked in our top 5 and had a specific player in mind for 11, that we were sure they’d be there at pick 11 but gone at pick 18 (or pick 17).
Hypothetical scenario:
We finish last and have pick 1.
Butters agrees to go to Richmond.
They trade Pick 2, their 2027 first pick & their 2028 first round pick to Port for Butters.
Would Port benefit by trading with us??
Wouldn’t us bidding on Cochrane eat up their 2x top 5 picks this year??
Would you take pick 2 & pick 4 for pick 1??
We would get HVH anyway and another top 5 pick.
How do they match Cochran if they only have pick 1 left as collateral? If they just pick him with 1 its pointless making the trade.
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So in this scenario Port trade us two top 5 picks for pick 1 and then they draft Cochrane themselves with pick 1?
They would straight up be worse off if they did this. Lets say they make this Butters deal with the Tigers and get the Tigs pick 2, and they finish say 5th last.
We bid on Cochrane at pick 1. Port will need 2700 points to match (3k - 10% for finishing in the bottom 5).
Pick 2 eats up 2481 of those points leaving 219 remaining, which is shaved off their pick 5 bumping it down 2 spots to pick 7.
So by not doing the trade they still get Cochrane and they gain pick 7.
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They could be cheeky and bid on Walker first. We could also give them something back. I am genuinely asking because this ■■■■ is starting to become very hard to follow.
Ohh!!! So it doesn’t eat the entire other pick??
Ok. So we would need to add an incentive.
No, we would just straight up not do the deal. Neither would they.
This entire scenario is a complete non starter.
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Lol. Okay.
I dont mean to be an ass.
Its why I changed the title of the thread. These hypotheticals are basically a waste of time. Is there some absolutely fringe possibility of trading pick 1?… probably yes, but its not going to happen, and most of these hypotheticals are being proposed by people who don’t really understand the rules so the entire convo devolves into a lesson on how the draft rules work.
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It’s a forum. Don’t take it all too seriously. It’s the perfect place to ask these questions.
Also a perfect place to provide the answer: We are not trading pick #1
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We don’t know that for sure. That is why it’s fun talking about it in this thread.
its a forum perfect place to read existing discussions
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Not only this. But the team’s most likely to do the deal will also have top 5 picks and be missing out.
If you take one of the biggest missed opportunities, JHF in 2021. Adelaide under these rules not only lose the three first rounders they offered for pick #1 and North’s second. They also lose the priority picks they’d have received in 2021 and 2022. Do they still offer that deal when you add the cost of two seconds in? Unlikely.
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I do wonder if the AFL thought through all this and how it would create this chilling effect on trading top picks before they added the rule.
I suspect not.
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