#9 Dylan Shiel (Part 1)

One of the best performers in the Coaches award this year.

The guy has transformed our midfield. So glad to him him playing for us. NOW PLEASE KICK A GOAL THIS WEEK DYLAN!!

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Mason Redman is a superb kick on the run. Needs to share the clues.

Julianne Moore is a fantastic actress.

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Especially in Boogie Nights

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NO AFL footballer has conceded more points from turnovers this year than Essendon’s big-name midfield recruit Dylan Shiel.

Let’s get that out of the way nice and early.

Shiel’s polarising 34-disposal Anzac Day performance at a packed MCG was lauded in some quarters, whereas others were keener to highlight his 10 turnovers. Note, he made AFL.com.au’s Team of the Week.

Collingwood kicked two goals off those giveaways – crucial in a four-point game – taking the ex-Giant’s season tally in that department to a League-leading 50 points from 10 scoring shots.

WHO MAKES FINALS? Do the 2019 Ladder Predictor

However, closer scrutiny of Shiel’s disposals, perhaps, illustrates he might be too harshly painted as a turnover merchant, particularly given the weight of possession he is gathering.

AFL.com.au has focused on three stars of the game – Shiel, West Coast’s Andrew Gaff and Hawk Jaeger O’Meara – whose ball-winning feats this year have coincided with high turnovers.

Gaff’s 11 turnovers in round six were more than anyone else, and he is averaging a competition-high 8.5 across his four matches since returning from suspension.

Gaff’s gaffes: Eagle is averaging the most turnovers in the AFL since his return. Picture: AFL Photos

O’Meara, his club’s No.1 midfielder in Brownlow medallist Tom Mitchell’s absence, had eight of his own among a personal-best 43 possessions in Hawthorn’s come-from-behind victory over Carlton on Sunday.

That gave him a whopping 35 in his five matches this year, at an average only Gaff surpasses.

This is the basic data, but Champion Data offers increasingly greater depth in how to interpret all this.

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The AFL’s official number-cruncher tracks how many scores are generated off turnovers, disposals by turnover and whether they were in general play or clearing from a stoppage.

The analysis goes even deeper into takeaways (opposition wins the ball back from a contest or free kick), and unforced (corralling or no pressure) or forced giveaways (under physical or closing pressure).

With all that in mind, how do Shiel, Gaff and O’Meara compare in season 2019, and how harshly should we judge their individual turnovers?

PLAYER TURNOVERS PER GAME DISPOSALS BY TURNOVER POINTS CONCEDED TAKEAWAYS UNFORCED GIVEAWAYS
Andrew Gaff 8.5 3.9 10.3 5.5 1.0
Jaeger O’Meara 7 4.4 5.6 3.6 1.8
Dylan Shiel 6 5 8.3 2.8 0.7

Jaeger O’Meara commits the most unforced giveaways of the star trio. Picture: AFL Photos

O’Meara concedes easily the fewest points of the trio from his turnovers, yet commits the most unforced giveaways, so his is an interesting set of numbers to digest.

Gaff, who has played one fewer game than O’Meara and two fewer than Shiel, is on track at this stage to overtake Shiel in the unwanted category of points conceded from turnovers.

The statistics aren’t kinder for the Eagle, at least for this year, once the sophisticated kick rating model is factored in.

Kick rating takes into account the difficulty of the attempt, with an ‘expected’ percentage given to each kick’s chance of being accurate.

For example, if a player successfully completes a kick and it was rated just a 38 per cent chance of that result, that player gains plus-62 per cent for that kick.

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The player would be minus-38 per cent if the kick is unsuccessful in that scenario.

Gaff is +1.3 per cent since 2011, which places him 155th out of the 478 players with at least 500 kicks in that period.

Shiel and O’Meara are -2.2 per cent (397th) and -2.3 per cent (402nd), respectively.

Both Gaff (-11.9 per cent) and O’Meara (-8.1 per cent) are far worse this season than their career kick rating, whereas Shiel (-3.9 per cent) is historically similar.

The Bomber comes in at No.81 in kick rating out of the players in the top 100 for total kicks, while the other two rank even lower, as the below tables illustrate.

BEST KICK RATING (OF TOP 100 TOTAL KICKS)

PLAYERS CLUB KICKS EXPECTED HIT RATE RATING
Shannon Hurn West Coast 132 67.4% 78.0% +10.6%
Daniel Rich Brisbane 129 63.2% 72.1% +8.9%
Caleb Daniel Western Bulldogs 108 54.1% 63.0% +8.9%
Brayden Maynard Collingwood 75 58.9% 66.7% +7.8%
Jake Lloyd Sydney 135 57.5% 65.2% +7.7%
Conor McKenna Essendon 87 60.3% 67.8% +7.5%
James Sicily Hawthorn 116 58.9% 66.4% +7.4%
Matthew Suckling Western Bulldogs 75 63.7% 70.7% +6.9%
Lewis Jetta West Coast 78 64.9% 71.8% +6.9%
Alex Witherden Brisbane 106 61.0% 67.9% +6.9%

WORST KICK RATING (OF TOP 100 TOTAL KICKS)

PLAYERS CLUB KICKS EXPECTED HIT RATE RATING
Andrew Gaff West Coast 74 48.4% 36.5% -11.9%
Jack Martin Gold Coast 70 58.3% 48.6% -9.7%
Marc Murphy Carlton 91 49.9% 40.7% -9.3%
Tim Kelly Geelong 83 47.4% 38.6% -8.9%
Alex Keath Adelaide 80 67.0% 58.8% -8.2%
Elliot Yeo West Coast 70 46.8% 38.6% -8.2%
Jaeger O’Meara Hawthorn 80 46.8% 38.8% -8.1%
David Mundy Fremantle 79 43.3% 35.4% -7.9%
Matt Taberner Fremantle 76 51.6% 44.7% -6.9%
Adam Tomlinson GWS 72 55.3% 48.6% -6.6%
Which teams thrive in the turnover game?

So much is made of Geelong’s renewed forward-half pressure this year, but more attention should be devoted to its ability to avoid turning over the ball.

The Cats are conceding just 30.2 points per game off turnovers, with the next-stingiest side, Fremantle (41.7), coughing up more than 10 extra points.

The competition average is 48.8 points against on turnover, as a further indication of how impressive their efforts so far are.

On the opposite end of the scale, struggling Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs are gifting their opposition 58.7 and 58.3 points respectively.

Remaining clubs: Hawthorn (43.3), Carlton (44.2), GWS (45.7), Port Adelaide, Gold Coast and Collingwood (all 46), St Kilda (46.2), Adelaide (47.7), West Coast (51.8), Sydney (52.5), Richmond (52.7), Essendon (54.7), Brisbane (55.2) and North Melbourne (57.7).

Single game and season records

Docker Harley Bennell holds the undesirable record of committing the most turnovers in one match at 15, against Adelaide in round 17, 2015 while he was still playing for Gold Coast.

Bennell won 39 possessions (16 contested) that day in a 45-point defeat, with just one of them an unforced giveaway and 12 of them in general play.

This statistic is available since only 2010, so someone not on record may have surpassed Bennell’s game.

Meanwhile, the Cairns quagmire North Melbourne and Gold Coast played in to kick off their 2018 campaigns produced the most combined turnovers in one game.

They racked up 221 between them, with the Roos’ 114 the most on record and the Suns the second-most at 107.

The biggest turnover differential came in round 21, 2011, when Port Adelaide committed 27 more than Hawthorn.

As for the season highs, Gary Ablett leads the individual category at 148, while Gold Coast’s 1708 last year is the most as a team.

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Good read. Shiel’s kicking isn’t the worst. If he can slightly improve his kicking accuracy he will be one of the most dominate players in the comp.

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Not the worst, but still very high up there. Needs to improve.

Daniher also turned two over which resulted in goals on the weekend. both were centering kicks which missed their targets. I don’t mind so much though, because he was trying to make things happen.

and it’s not like he or the club don’t know it’s something he can improve on

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Whoosha said he is not concerned. So maybe they don’t know!

I do know he’s a gun and I really struggle to contain myself when he’s bursting from a pack.

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If he is not concerned then he must know. Unless he is doing a Rumsfeld with
Known Concerns
Unknown Concerns
Known non-concerns
Unknown non-concerns

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That’s way too high (points against from turnover). I’d be interested to know what that stat looks like without the gws game in.

Regardless, we need to significantly improve that if we’re serious about going deep into finals this year.

i wonder if a bit of his erractic kicking at present is due to this new dynamic you mention, and not having gelled yet properly.

the players up field prolly aren’t used to a midfielder streaming through traffic with the ball at that pace (note i said midfielder not the backline) and aren’t reading the play up the field as well yet.

i think someone mentioned it somewhere along the line he does seem to try to kick alot at full pace, needs to take a couple of steps before kicking to steady himself a bit more.

Incorrect. The one to Andy McGrath hit him right on the mitts and under no pressure and Andy dropped it. It was a perfect kick and would have opened up the ground. Danihers field kicking is very good.

We love the corridor but need to be smarter with the kick if it’s covered. If we are in a slow play try something new. Why not a short kick to a 20 m lead? Why not a run from behind handball. The majority of the time we turn it over is when we are playing slow. If it’s a slow play have a plan b.

If Shiel wanted to know what it was like to play for a big club in the biggest football market in Australia he surely must know now.

In his first 6 weeks of play he’s had his kicking skills picked apart on almost a daily basis and he’s been involved in what most likely will be one of the biggest stories for the year.

Welcome to the big show Dylan :joy::joy:

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As always, the answer to a headline phrased as a question is “no”.

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Look it’s simple he is a very, very good player, dynamic, powerful, quick and clean. He has made our midfield significantly better and I love that he is in our colours. But make no mistake he is a butcher, Daniel Day Lewis level.

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What’s the big story you’re referring to?