One of the best performers in the Coaches award this year.
The guy has transformed our midfield. So glad to him him playing for us. NOW PLEASE KICK A GOAL THIS WEEK DYLAN!!
Mason Redman is a superb kick on the run. Needs to share the clues.
Julianne Moore is a fantastic actress.
Especially in Boogie Nights
NO AFL footballer has conceded more points from turnovers this year than Essendonâs big-name midfield recruit Dylan Shiel.
Letâs get that out of the way nice and early.
Shielâs polarising 34-disposal Anzac Day performance at a packed MCG was lauded in some quarters, whereas others were keener to highlight his 10 turnovers. Note, he made AFL.com.auâs Team of the Week.
Collingwood kicked two goals off those giveaways â crucial in a four-point game â taking the ex-Giantâs season tally in that department to a League-leading 50 points from 10 scoring shots.
WHO MAKES FINALS? Do the 2019 Ladder Predictor
However, closer scrutiny of Shielâs disposals, perhaps, illustrates he might be too harshly painted as a turnover merchant, particularly given the weight of possession he is gathering.
AFL.com.au has focused on three stars of the game â Shiel, West Coastâs Andrew Gaff and Hawk Jaeger OâMeara â whose ball-winning feats this year have coincided with high turnovers.
Gaffâs 11 turnovers in round six were more than anyone else, and he is averaging a competition-high 8.5 across his four matches since returning from suspension.
Gaffâs gaffes: Eagle is averaging the most turnovers in the AFL since his return. Picture: AFL Photos
OâMeara, his clubâs No.1 midfielder in Brownlow medallist Tom Mitchellâs absence, had eight of his own among a personal-best 43 possessions in Hawthornâs come-from-behind victory over Carlton on Sunday.
That gave him a whopping 35 in his five matches this year, at an average only Gaff surpasses.
This is the basic data, but Champion Data offers increasingly greater depth in how to interpret all this.
FULL INJURY LIST Whoâs ruled out and whoâs a test?
The AFLâs official number-cruncher tracks how many scores are generated off turnovers, disposals by turnover and whether they were in general play or clearing from a stoppage.
The analysis goes even deeper into takeaways (opposition wins the ball back from a contest or free kick), and unforced (corralling or no pressure) or forced giveaways (under physical or closing pressure).
With all that in mind, how do Shiel, Gaff and OâMeara compare in season 2019, and how harshly should we judge their individual turnovers?
PLAYER | TURNOVERS PER GAME | DISPOSALS BY TURNOVER | POINTS CONCEDED | TAKEAWAYS | UNFORCED GIVEAWAYS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Andrew Gaff | 8.5 | 3.9 | 10.3 | 5.5 | 1.0 |
Jaeger OâMeara | 7 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 |
Dylan Shiel | 6 | 5 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 |
Jaeger OâMeara commits the most unforced giveaways of the star trio. Picture: AFL Photos
OâMeara concedes easily the fewest points of the trio from his turnovers, yet commits the most unforced giveaways, so his is an interesting set of numbers to digest.
Gaff, who has played one fewer game than OâMeara and two fewer than Shiel, is on track at this stage to overtake Shiel in the unwanted category of points conceded from turnovers.
The statistics arenât kinder for the Eagle, at least for this year, once the sophisticated kick rating model is factored in.
Kick rating takes into account the difficulty of the attempt, with an âexpectedâ percentage given to each kickâs chance of being accurate.
For example, if a player successfully completes a kick and it was rated just a 38 per cent chance of that result, that player gains plus-62 per cent for that kick.
Find Trends on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts and Spotify
The player would be minus-38 per cent if the kick is unsuccessful in that scenario.
Gaff is +1.3 per cent since 2011, which places him 155th out of the 478 players with at least 500 kicks in that period.
Shiel and OâMeara are -2.2 per cent (397th) and -2.3 per cent (402nd), respectively.
Both Gaff (-11.9 per cent) and OâMeara (-8.1 per cent) are far worse this season than their career kick rating, whereas Shiel (-3.9 per cent) is historically similar.
The Bomber comes in at No.81 in kick rating out of the players in the top 100 for total kicks, while the other two rank even lower, as the below tables illustrate.
BEST KICK RATING (OF TOP 100 TOTAL KICKS)
PLAYERS | CLUB | KICKS | EXPECTED | HIT RATE | RATING |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Shannon Hurn | West Coast | 132 | 67.4% | 78.0% | +10.6% |
Daniel Rich | Brisbane | 129 | 63.2% | 72.1% | +8.9% |
Caleb Daniel | Western Bulldogs | 108 | 54.1% | 63.0% | +8.9% |
Brayden Maynard | Collingwood | 75 | 58.9% | 66.7% | +7.8% |
Jake Lloyd | Sydney | 135 | 57.5% | 65.2% | +7.7% |
Conor McKenna | Essendon | 87 | 60.3% | 67.8% | +7.5% |
James Sicily | Hawthorn | 116 | 58.9% | 66.4% | +7.4% |
Matthew Suckling | Western Bulldogs | 75 | 63.7% | 70.7% | +6.9% |
Lewis Jetta | West Coast | 78 | 64.9% | 71.8% | +6.9% |
Alex Witherden | Brisbane | 106 | 61.0% | 67.9% | +6.9% |
WORST KICK RATING (OF TOP 100 TOTAL KICKS)
PLAYERS | CLUB | KICKS | EXPECTED | HIT RATE | RATING |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Andrew Gaff | West Coast | 74 | 48.4% | 36.5% | -11.9% |
Jack Martin | Gold Coast | 70 | 58.3% | 48.6% | -9.7% |
Marc Murphy | Carlton | 91 | 49.9% | 40.7% | -9.3% |
Tim Kelly | Geelong | 83 | 47.4% | 38.6% | -8.9% |
Alex Keath | Adelaide | 80 | 67.0% | 58.8% | -8.2% |
Elliot Yeo | West Coast | 70 | 46.8% | 38.6% | -8.2% |
Jaeger OâMeara | Hawthorn | 80 | 46.8% | 38.8% | -8.1% |
David Mundy | Fremantle | 79 | 43.3% | 35.4% | -7.9% |
Matt Taberner | Fremantle | 76 | 51.6% | 44.7% | -6.9% |
Adam Tomlinson | GWS | 72 | 55.3% | 48.6% | -6.6% |
Which teams thrive in the turnover game?
So much is made of Geelongâs renewed forward-half pressure this year, but more attention should be devoted to its ability to avoid turning over the ball.
The Cats are conceding just 30.2 points per game off turnovers, with the next-stingiest side, Fremantle (41.7), coughing up more than 10 extra points.
The competition average is 48.8 points against on turnover, as a further indication of how impressive their efforts so far are.
On the opposite end of the scale, struggling Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs are gifting their opposition 58.7 and 58.3 points respectively.
Remaining clubs: Hawthorn (43.3), Carlton (44.2), GWS (45.7), Port Adelaide, Gold Coast and Collingwood (all 46), St Kilda (46.2), Adelaide (47.7), West Coast (51.8), Sydney (52.5), Richmond (52.7), Essendon (54.7), Brisbane (55.2) and North Melbourne (57.7).
Single game and season records
Docker Harley Bennell holds the undesirable record of committing the most turnovers in one match at 15, against Adelaide in round 17, 2015 while he was still playing for Gold Coast.
Bennell won 39 possessions (16 contested) that day in a 45-point defeat, with just one of them an unforced giveaway and 12 of them in general play.
This statistic is available since only 2010, so someone not on record may have surpassed Bennellâs game.
Meanwhile, the Cairns quagmire North Melbourne and Gold Coast played in to kick off their 2018 campaigns produced the most combined turnovers in one game.
They racked up 221 between them, with the Roosâ 114 the most on record and the Suns the second-most at 107.
The biggest turnover differential came in round 21, 2011, when Port Adelaide committed 27 more than Hawthorn.
As for the season highs, Gary Ablett leads the individual category at 148, while Gold Coastâs 1708 last year is the most as a team.
Good read. Shielâs kicking isnât the worst. If he can slightly improve his kicking accuracy he will be one of the most dominate players in the comp.
Not the worst, but still very high up there. Needs to improve.
Daniher also turned two over which resulted in goals on the weekend. both were centering kicks which missed their targets. I donât mind so much though, because he was trying to make things happen.
and itâs not like he or the club donât know itâs something he can improve on
Whoosha said he is not concerned. So maybe they donât know!
I do know heâs a gun and I really struggle to contain myself when heâs bursting from a pack.
If he is not concerned then he must know. Unless he is doing a Rumsfeld with
Known Concerns
Unknown Concerns
Known non-concerns
Unknown non-concerns
Thatâs way too high (points against from turnover). Iâd be interested to know what that stat looks like without the gws game in.
Regardless, we need to significantly improve that if weâre serious about going deep into finals this year.
i wonder if a bit of his erractic kicking at present is due to this new dynamic you mention, and not having gelled yet properly.
the players up field prolly arenât used to a midfielder streaming through traffic with the ball at that pace (note i said midfielder not the backline) and arenât reading the play up the field as well yet.
i think someone mentioned it somewhere along the line he does seem to try to kick alot at full pace, needs to take a couple of steps before kicking to steady himself a bit more.
Incorrect. The one to Andy McGrath hit him right on the mitts and under no pressure and Andy dropped it. It was a perfect kick and would have opened up the ground. Danihers field kicking is very good.
We love the corridor but need to be smarter with the kick if itâs covered. If we are in a slow play try something new. Why not a short kick to a 20 m lead? Why not a run from behind handball. The majority of the time we turn it over is when we are playing slow. If itâs a slow play have a plan b.
If Shiel wanted to know what it was like to play for a big club in the biggest football market in Australia he surely must know now.
In his first 6 weeks of play heâs had his kicking skills picked apart on almost a daily basis and heâs been involved in what most likely will be one of the biggest stories for the year.
Welcome to the big show Dylan
As always, the answer to a headline phrased as a question is ânoâ.
Look itâs simple he is a very, very good player, dynamic, powerful, quick and clean. He has made our midfield significantly better and I love that he is in our colours. But make no mistake he is a butcher, Daniel Day Lewis level.
Whatâs the big story youâre referring to?