Conargo Bulls 2016
List Changes
Trades In – Nil
Trades Out – Mason Wood, Courtenay Dempsey
Delisted – Josh Hill, Nick Robertson (redrafted), Brandon Jack, Alex Sexton, Jeremy Laidler, Alan Toovey,
Hayden Crozier
Drafted - Lin Jong, Cameron Sutcliffe, Josh Dunkley, Nick Robertson, Brendan Whitecross, Andrew Moore, Toby Nankervis, Ryan Lester, Jaden McGrath, Sam Lloyd
Best Team
Backs: Jamie Macmillan, Elliot Yeo, Marley Williams, Zac Williams, Cam Sutcliffe
Mids: David Armitage, Jack Macrae, Liam Shiels, Joel Selwood, Mitch Wallis, Scott Selwood, Andrew Moore
Forwards: Jamie Elliott, Callum Sinclair, Josh Jenkins, Reece Conca, Jack Martin
Ruck: Tom Nicholls
Emergencies: Ryan Harwood B, Ben Kennedy CF, Ryan Lester C, Joe Daniher F
Depth: Sam Colquhoun CB, Ling Jong CF, Nick Robertson C, Brendan Whitecross BF, Toby Nankervis RF, Jaden McGrath BF, Sam Lloyd F, Josh Dunkley C
Suspended – Heath Hocking C
Likely Round 1 Team
Backs: Jamie Macmillan, Ryan Harwood, Marley Williams, Zac Williams, Cam Sutcliffe
Mids: David Armitage, Jack Macrae, Elliot Yeo, Ling Jong, Mitch Wallis, Ryan Lester, Andrew Moore
Forwards: Callum Sinclair, Josh Jenkins, Jack Martin, Ben Kennedy, Joe Daniher
Ruck: Tom Nicholls
Emergencies: Nick Robertson, Brendan Whitecross, Toby Nankervis, Sam Lloyd
Doubtful: Joel Selwood, Reece Conca, Jaden McGrath
Injured: Liam Shiels, Scott Selwood, Jamie Elliott
Depth: Sam Colquhoun, Josh Dunkley
Suspended: Heath Hocking
2016 Draft Summary
Pick 23 - Lin Jong CF
Previous BBFFL#2 games – 9 – Smooth 9 (2015)
After a mid-season trade to bring Scott Selwood to the Bulls I went into the post trade period without a first round pick. I flirted with the idea of getting back into the draft via a trade but none of the deals I considered were worth the cost. So in the end my hands were somewhat tied and as a result I was always likely to bypass the first year players to acquire someone with experience with pick 23.
Once the delistings were finalised I found myself drawn towards the likes of Aaron Hall, Brandon Matera and Shaun Atley. Naturally these players were well gone by 23 and the one youngster who I would have snapped up if available was Matthew Kennedy was taken at 17 by Stoops.
When pick 23 arrived I had narrowed it down to 5 players – Jong, Harry Cunningham (CBH’s spud variety), Cam Sutcliffe, Will Langford and Nick Robertson my last delistee. The added flexibility of dual positions meant Jong and Cunningham were preferred. Jong ended up winning out off the back of a best on ground in NAB 2 and an arguably higher ceiling. If he can cement a spot in the Bulldogs best 22 I see him as a reasonable scorer, although somewhat inconsistent. It was a little frustrating that he failed to produce too much in the last NAB match.
Pick 41 - Cameron Sutcliffe B
Previous BBFFL#2 games – 46 - Come Back Hirdy 35 (2014 to 2015), Redbull 11 (2013)
With my second pick I was again keen to go best available. At first I had no preference on which position I filled but after grabbing a mid/forward with my first pick I thought I should address my backline. Upon review I may have done better than expected and have rated Sutcliffe a starter in my best 18. His average fell last year after he has steadily built it up over the previous couple of years. It was surprising to find him in the draft pool after playing 17 games for Come Back Hirdy last year. I am hoping he plays a more attacking role this year with Freo.
As I mentioned after drafting him I had regretted my decision to cut him before our 2014 draft and was extremely pleased to welcome him home! Interestingly in that same cull from my backline I also got rid of Taylor Duryea and Brad Sheppard, while I kept fantasy guns like Jake Batchelor, Sam Darley, Luke Russell and Dan Nicholson (need I not mention that Jordan Gysberts also made my keepers that year – yuk!!!).
Other players I considered at 41 included Kieran Lovell, Josh Dunkley, Nick Robertson, Brayden Fiorini and Zak Jones. Also a player who would have been strongly considered if he had remained on the board was the little ball magnet Caleb Daniel.
Pick 59 - Josh Dunkley C
First Year Player
After taking two mature age players I decided to assess which first year players remained in the draft pool. I was very surprised to find three potential fantasy guns still available. On this basis each of Kieran Lovell, Brayden Fiorini and Dunkley were considered.
Fiorini’s numbers from TAC Cup and National Championships made a compelling argument and the injuries to key Gold Coast players meant there could be opportunities early this season. However I was swayed away in the end after finding out he had suffered some setbacks during the preseason and read some talk that the Suns wanted him to round out his game some more before giving him a crack at AFL.
Lovell was another fantasy superstar at underage level. I doubt he would have been left in the pool at this stage if he had gone to any other club, but given he is at Hawthorn game time may be difficult to secure this year.
So in the end I went with the player I think is most likely to get games this year in Dunkley. The Bulldogs played most of their list last year and for this reason I think Dunkley will be given opportunities in 2016. I was very thankful the Bombers didn’t draft him as I feel his kicking is a concern, however this is fantasy and the scoring we use means a kick is 3 points no matter where it goes. His big body should enable him to fit in at AFL level straight away and be able to rack up the +4s by laying many tackles. Playing much of last year in the VFL also gives him a head start by having already played against men.
Pick 77 - Nick Robertson C
Previous BBFFL#2 games – 11 - Redbull 10 (2015), Eggs 1 (2014)
As I stated above, my last delistee in Robertson was a consideration at 23. Therefore to see him still on the board at 77 made it a no brainer. The Lion’s midfield is arguably their strength but with Beams not having a preseason (and now going down with knee tendinitis) I still felt there was a place for Robertson. Having watched him closely last year I feel he tends to drift in and out of games. I am hoping this is a result of his fitness levels and relative immaturity level as an AFL footballer. If he can bring himself into the game more his scoring should improve. Unfortunately he was poor on the weekend and a Round 1 berth must be in question.
Other players that were in the mix but not really considered at this pick were – Fiorini (may live to regret overlooking him), Claye Beams, Alex Sexton and Zac Jones again. Also there were some prospects that I would have considered had they not gone between 60 and 76 – Ed Langdon and Riley Bonner.
Pick 95 - Brendan Whitecross BF
Previous BBFFL#2 games – 27 - TDSpartan 26 (2012 to 2013) Come Back Hirdy 1 (2015)
With Fiorini gone this became the most difficult pick I made during the draft. The reason was I really wanted to bring Alex Sexton back to the Bulls. During the trade period it became apparent The Melkman was very keen to get his hands on Sexton again as well (he played one game for Melky back in 2012). After no trade could be negotiated a game of cat and mouse ensued between the two of us. At one stage Sexton actually found himself back into my keepers merely due to Melky’s interest. However I held strong and once I couldn’t trade out Daniher for a first rounder I decided he was best to be moved on with a view of picking him up again. In the final throws of trade week I tried my luck at securing Pick 96 from Birch so I had an extra pick before The Melkman could pounce at 103, but unfortunately nothing materialised.
The counter argument to Sexton was Whitecross who I see as a high risk high reward fantasy player. In 2012 he averaged 88 before knee injuries have chopped him down. His ball winning ability shone through last year at VFL level and a first full preseason since 2012 had me bullish about him. Also going in his favour was the added flexibility that a dual position back/forward would bring to my squad and that he was named in the team for NAB 3.
While it is too early to regret my choice, thus far it hasn’t gone too well. Sexton came out on the weekend and scored 83, showing all the signs that a breakout fantasy season is imminent, while Whitecross was cut from the Hawks squad and faces an uphill battle to win his spot back for Round 1.
Pick 105 - Andrew Moore C
Previous BBFFL#2 games – 28 - Bargey 8 (2012), Stoops 8 (2013), 51 Bewick 3 (2014), Pazza 9 (2015)
Andrew Moore joined his 5th BBFFL#2 team when I decided to pull the trigger and take him with 105. With the increase to 7 mids this year my squad was still one starting mid short. Also the injury concerns to the Selwood brothers meant my squad could be stretched early in the season.
I therefore sifted through the teams that had been named for NAB 3 and looked at the available mids. Names that came out of this search included Brent Macaffer, Ryan Lester, Moore and Jono O’ Rourke. Farren Ray and Jarrad Jansen had been in the mix but their failure to get named ruled them out. Moore fitted the bill well given he adds something that the Tigers midfield is arguably missing. I expect the Tigers will play him early and my expectations are that he will be a key part to their mid rotation. This was confirmed after his game on Thursday night were he scored a respectable 79.
If I was taking this pick now I probably would go for O’Rourke in preference to Moore knowing how well he scored on the weekend and also because of Liam Shiels’ injury.
Pick 112 - Toby Nankervis RF Previous BBFFL#2 games – 5 - Cafegerat 5 (2015)This pick was a pick for position coverage. Having two ruckman who should get regular games means my squad was reasonably well off for rucks, but given their relative scarcity I thought it was important to add another one. The logical fits were ruckman backing up my current rucks in Sinclair and Nicholls. With Dan Currie going in the 40s, it basically came down to 3 choices, Nankervis, Keegan Brooksby and Tom Derickx. The field was shortened to two options with Derickx not getting a game in NAB 3. The risk with Brooksby is that Gold Coast have a number of other options they could throw into the ruck before he gets a game, names like Wright, Currie and possibly Day or Lynch. Sydney on the other hand are already playing Tippett in the ruck and it really appears that Nankervis is next big man in, either as a ruckman or even possibly as a forward. Therefore the choice became relatively straightforward. His failure to really trouble the fantasy scorers on Friday night is a concern, but he is only a backup and if he is playing regularly the Bulls are in trouble.
Pick 128 - Ryan Lester C
Previous BBFFL#2 games – 34 – Come Back Hirdy 16 (2012 to 2013), Stoops 18 (2012 & 2014)
Back to back picks in the 120s meant I could cover off positional requirements. As with pick 105 I thought it was important to get some additional depth in the mids. So once again I run through the available options. All of the players I had considered when taking Moore remained in the pool. Lester appealed for two reasons, one his 2014 season when he averaged 78 and two I feel he has the possibility of picking up a dual position at some stage during the season (gees that would be nice to annoy @wezza ). Reflecting back on this pick, for some reason I seemed to have overlooked O’Rourke on the belief he wasn’t picked for NAB 3. I have my fingers crossed that I don’t live to regret this oversight. Lester was solid without setting the word on fire on the weekend. With Mathieson going down injured I think there is a spot in the Lions team for Round 1.
Pick 129 - Jaden McGrath BF
No Previous BBFFL#2 Games
Again this pick was more a positional move. McGrath jumped to the top of the queue given his back forward status. In 2015 his strong preseason form saw him rewarded with early games before he broke down with a foot injury. Also he is still a teenager so he also serves to add another youngster to the list. Getting a game in NAB 3 was also important. The other player strongly considered here was Jackson Ramsay. Again hindsight is a wonderful thing – McGrath went down in the first minute of his NAB game while Ramsay pumped out a 94 – ■■■■■■ Bargey!
Pick 146 - Sam Lloyd F
Previous BBFFL#2 games – 15 - Redbull 8 (2014), Smooth 7 (2015)
With my last pick I thought I should add another forward to the mix. I hadn’t taken a forward since my first pick – as I don’t primarily consider rucks or backs with forward status to be forwards. A few names including my perennial delist/draftee Hayden Crozier were considered but the choice was decided after a phone call to my mum who confirmed what news Sam’s mum had about his likelihood of getting a regular game. On the back of this intelligence I thought it was worth the risk of taking somewhat of a sentimental pick. The boy is hurting after getting dropped by the Tigs for their final last year – even more so when he was told he was definitely playing early in the week. Having caught up with him over Christmas he is fitter than ever meaning he should be able to play out full games now. Also his scoring was drastically impacted by the sub rule last year, so with that rule going he should be able to push his average back into the 60s. I didn’t like cutting him last year and couldn’t be happier to have him back at the Conargo Bulls this year (ironically we play a game of cricket together each year for Conargo).
Overall Summary
I think I have strengthen my squad with a couple of solid midfield additions and a likely back starter. My depth is also a lot stronger than in previous years. Early season form has been my achilles heel since BBFFL#2 started and I put this down squarely to the fact I have drafted too often based on potential rather than choosing players who will get games. I feel I have rectified this situation with this year’s draft. Of the 10 players taken only 3 didn’t play in NAB 3. This will be important given I already have injury concerns to a number of key squad members.
This season I am hopeful that I will start to see the rewards for a 5 year plan I entered into in mid 2012. It was at this stage that I decided to go down the youth path. Slowly but surely I traded out my older players and my list currently has an average age of 23.6. Joel Selwood is the eldest player in my squad (turns 28 in May) – so it is unlikely WOB and I will be doing much trading this year! Out of interest, the average age of my draftees this year was only 22.9, despite only taking 1 first year player. Whitecross and Lloyd were the eldest taken, both aged 26.
Wins wise I will be looking to improve on the 7 achieved last year. I broke even over the last 14 weeks after losing my first 5. After averaging 1252 points in 2012 the team has subsequently averaged 1182, 1180 and then 1277. Wins wise I have gone 9, 3, 3 and then 7. If I can improve by another 50 points this year than finals are within reach. The lowest average score to make the finals each year has been 1307, 1322, 1313 and 1331 respectively. From Round 4 onwards last year I averaged 1330 so it is definitely achievable. Injuries will be the key to ensure I increase my average by 50 points a week. Last year Harwood and Conca basically didn’t play and Jack Martin missed a lot of the season. Interestingly the best 18 scorers in my 20 keepers would have scored 1399 if they played to their average in 2015 – yet I only achieved a score in the 1400s twice last year. If injuries are taken as a given (especially when you consider for Round 1 I won’t have Scott Selwood, Jamie Elliott and Liam Shiels and question marks hang over Reece Conca and Joel Selwood) then it is important I get improvement out of some of my younger players. In particular I need to have Daniher show that Sunday wasn’t a one off and that he can do that week in week out, Martin to stay fit and have a breakout year and for Conca to stay fit and push his average back towards 80. All of these are within the realms of possibility.
As always I am pumped for the season and can’t wait to get stuck into it!
