BBFFL#2 2017 Discussion

Steez Merchants Off-Season

Trades
Stef Martin for pick 14
I was feeling confident that Witts would likely be first choice ruck for the Gold Coast, and that Archie Smith was a great ruck prospect. Stef will probably still be the most productive of the three this year, but he was also the only one I could shake out a first rounder for. Also, his scoring really suffered last year when paired with Smith, which I expect will happen at least some of the time this year.

Dixon, Bewick and pick 86 for Blicavs
Grew from an offer for Witts from Ivan that I wasn’t interested in, but got us talking about Blicavs. His R eligibility gives me some back-up for Witts, and I expect he’ll continue to average 80+ as a C. Dixon and Bewick would have been considered for keeper spots, but probably wouldn’t have made it.

Zaharakis for Kennedy
Win-win. Melk gets a younger player in a position he had need, I filled a need in the forward line without sacrificing ppg. Very sad to see Zaharakis go, my second pick in the inaugural draft. I wish him the best of luck at his new club.

Harbrow and Foote also left for picks.

Keepers
B Savage - J. Smith - Wood - Salem - Wellingham
C JP. Kennedy - Hall - Goddard - Curnow - Jack - Miles - Blicavs
R Witts
F Rioli - Daniel - J. Riewoldt - JJ. Kennedy - Rose
I Wells - A. Smith

A good side, averaged 1449 last year, but has lost lots of dual position flexibility. Losing Cooney also hurts (seriously, he was OK last year). Rose might have been the wrong guy for the last spot. Whitecross, McIntosh and McDonald were the other considerations, and all got a look in the JLT where Rose didn’t.

Draft
I went in knowing nothing about this year’s draftees, and with my first pick at 14 and no second rounder, wasn’t expecting any chance at the best ones.

  1. Eggs - Taylor Walker (Adelaide)
  2. Eggs - Luke Mcdonald (North Melbourne)
  3. Eggs - Josh Cowan (Geelong)
  4. Eggs - Rhys Palmer (Carlton)
  5. Eggs - Robbie Fox (Sydney)
  6. Eggs - Adam Tomlinson (Greater Western Sydney)
  7. Eggs - Kayne Turner (North Melbourne)
  8. Eggs - Claye Beams (Brisbane Lions)
  9. Eggs - Troy Menzel (Adelaide)
  10. Eggs - Nathan Wright (St Kilda)

Thrilled to get Walker. Forward was my biggest need, and he looks likely to be the highest scorer from the draft this year.

Most of my other picks were looking for players that would get selected every week, with upside if possible. McDonald, Tomlinson, Turner, and Beams fill that requirement.

Cowan was a bit of a panic pick. At that stage I couldn’t see many centres that seemed at all likely to get games. I was choosing between him and Ricky Henderson, and my research had Cowan appearing more often in best 22s than Henderson.

Palmer will be reliable, and should be a better scorer than he was last year at GWS.

Menzel and Wright are worth a look, but will be first out the door if there are good free agents available.

I’d love any feedback on my side or my draft, if anyone has the time.

3 Likes

Interesting draft, Eggs.

Your keeper list looks very good.

I like your trades, blicavs is very valuable if he has R status.

Id probably need to check dp status and in fact some general positions overall to give meaningful feedback. A couple of things jump out at me on gut feel but may be way off target.

1 Like

Sorry Eggs…

Oh dear.

3 Likes

Ok, just checked your draftees positions, there may be some dual pos in the keepers that changes things.

Your keeper list has 5 forwards, 8 centres , 2 ruck ( 3 with Blicavs ) and 5 defenders.

Its also a list for the now. Balance wise, imo Wells is crucial. If he doesnt get fit, the centres are bare minimum (but still strong).

So, on to the draft. To this you added 5 forwards, 2 centres, 3 backs.

Pick 14 Walker: ok, so clearly you’re having a crack for this year. In that context this pick makes perfect sense. Rose drops off the starting list, forward line looks excellent. I could offer some “better” picks here but only if the strategy was different.

Pick 50. Mcdonald. Again, makes sense in the context of finding a regular 22 for a position you only have 5 in. Still some upside in Mcdonald too. But im less convinced of his job security this year. Hibberd is coming through. Competition might be what he needs. Not a whole lot of similar at this point in the draft, so a tick given what you are trying to do. I do think a Centre at this point may have been the go though and hope for Mcdonald or similar at 70.

Pick 70. Cowan. Hmm. This may work out ok but im not liking the pick on instinct. Certainly needed a mid. I think Cats will prioritise Horlin-Smith, Lang, Cockatoo etc. But i may be wrong. Played the 2nd half of the year and i know he’s injury cover but i still think he’s fringe with limited upside. I’d have gone Jarrod Pickett here without a moments hesitation. Dual position would have allowed flexibility, Carlton will play him if fit, big upside that could lift you to the next level even in the context of “now”.

Pick 86. Palmer. I like this pick for one big reason - very good chance to earn mid status. If he does, it may save your bacon at times given Wells fragility. he is likely to play, could score good points for a forward and basically bullet proofs that forward line. No urgent need for more forwards from here on…

Pick 104. Fox. Woah! See, this is my kind of pick. A flyer on a rookie listed kid. Its probably also the wrong pick. But i put Jordan Foote on the keeper list so who am i to judge!? That said, if you need playing depth in the C’s then this pick doesnt really offer it on what we’ve seen so far. Its a tricky one, this pick is a product of what you did earlier but maybe either of Bargeys next two picks (Dunn and Thomas) would have been better given you are in the frame this season and then shift your strategy accordingly.

Pick 115. Tomlinson. Ok, another B needed and found. But job security is iffy - though improved with Marchbank departure. Big upside via huge ball winner in Neafl but gws have mid talent coming out of their ■■■■. So if he plays it will be as a kpd. Id probably have gone with Frawley here for similar with slightly better guarantee. Or maybe Castagna to punt on some ball winning in the B position and then a more boring B later.

So, so far you’ve added a lock F, probably a lock D, a fringe C, an almost lock F, a very fringe C, and an almost lock D.

From here on you then add three very fringe forwards and a fringe B. By this late in the draft options are limited and everything is a punt but im not convinced that was the right balance positionally.

I like Turner. I think theres upside there.

But the other three im not sure on, mainly because of list balance. Youve added 5 forwards and just two Centres, neither of whom are certainties to play. To me, this matters more because Wells is so damn fragile. I wont offer names because this late its all a crapshoot.

You had a tough draft position and i think you’ve done pretty well with your thinking. But the Cowan and Fox picks may prove to be the key ones that locked you into a tough course later. Given all of it, id have punted on a draftee midfield kid late, or Freeman. Just not convinced you needed so many F’s, injuries could impact heavily elsewhere.

Its all easy in hindsight, lol. Certainly no personal criticism intended. We all compromise and 2nd guess how the draft will work out.

3 Likes

Okay so I have been working on a statistical method for simulating the effect of trades/FA pickups/drafting. It essentially works by calculating a “best 18”, and then randomly drawing on that players historical scores. I run a roster that every teams plays each other once, and I run 50 seasons and average the results. A practical use of it would be:

Someone offers me Adam Treloar in exchange for Paul Seedsman. Realistically, I know that is a good trade for me, even though I am losing a cult figure around the club. Treloar has a value of 40 ish above my 5th defender and would make a significant change to my season. I run the model and see how many extra games I am likely to win with that trade. Realistically, trades like don’t happen, so its looking for small gains - and optimising your team with a wins above replacement strategy. It has certain drawbacks and limitations, some I can fix, and some I can’t:

  • Currently no way to take into account injuries, or how injury prone a player is.
  • Projections are based on historical scores over the last 2 years. Natural improvement and of course new players (2017 proj. used) will make a significant difference to this.
  • The best 18 calculation is fairly rudimentary, and requires tweaking for teams with a lot of dual positions.
  • Players with artificially skewed data - the Ethan Hughes/Brayden Fiorini principle. Not much I can do about that at the moment, but its a significant issue.

Anyway, here are the results of the simulation for pre drafting trading, and the final teams yesterday. There will be a few issues with it, as mentioned, but feel free to ask me any questions. Personally, I did not use this at all to draft as I was in a conference in Mount Isa for the entire week, and I think its reflected in my fairly neutral results.

Probably should have converted these to %, oops.

6 Likes

FWIW, I would’ve drafted Fox at 122, so if it was the wrong pick, it wasn’t the wrong pick by much.

He’s also not a ‘kid’ :stuck_out_tongue:

Yeah when you posted that I panicked a little a thought I’d stuffed that trade up. Wouldn’t have made if he had an c, r next him.

As it is I think you got s good deal anyway but I want players to clear the decks so it satisfied my objectives

That’s awesome Sal, thank you. I think you’re pretty spot on with your commentary, although I think I’m more optimistic about some of the players I went for than you.

Also, love the Bix work.

2 Likes

**

Conargo Bulls Off Season

**

Trade Summary

The Conargo Bulls had their most active trade period ever. After a 4 year rebuild my list is finally getting towards a position that should see the team pushing for the top 8 in 2017 and the trade period presented an opportunity to improve the squad to enhance this push. Due to the continued development of some of my younger players and the good form in 2016 the list arguably had a surplus of keepers which meant I was always going to be looking to offload some players with a view of trying to cash them in for higher scoring players.

Trade 1
Redbull Trades Mitch Wallis, Jamie Elliott and Pick 100

To

Silly Billy for Picks 4 and 40

The first trade achieved much of what I was aiming with two players under injury clouds securing a top 5 pick and an early 3rd rounder. It was tough to let both Wallis and Elliott go. Wallis was my 11th pick (186 overall) in the original draft and well and truly outlived players such as Colin Sylvia (67), Jordan Gysberts (114) and Cale Morton (175). While Elliott was arguably my greatest ever free agent acquisition way back in early 2012. Wallis was not going to add much to my team for 2017 and broken legs are horrible injuries to come back from so getting an instant return was well worth it, whilst Elliott’s back injury was a major concern.

When Silly Billy came at me offering pick 4 in return it was impossible to say no. The bonus of pick 40 made it even easier to accept. It will be interesting to see how this pans out over the long run but personally I was happy with the instant reward, for if nothing else it made determining my 20 keepers a lot easier.

Trade 2
The Melkman trades picks 52 and 88

to

redbull for Marley Williams and pick 118

This was a simple trade from my perspective. Williams had a shocking 2016 and his fantasy game was impacted by playing more lock down type roles. When The Melkman came offering I couldn’t say yes fast enough. Firstly Williams was well down in my rankings with regards to making my keepers and secondly there was a risk that his preseason form could potentially push him completely off all radars.

Trade 3
Smooth Trades for Jarryd Lyons + Pick 53

to Redbull Toby Nankervis + Pick 10

Armed with 2 top 10 picks after the trade with Silly Billy I was more than happy to shop the pick around for a top line midfielder where I felt my squad was lacking depth. Initial discussions centred mainly around a direct switch for Lyons who Smooth was open to discussing after he lost his forward status. I was comfortable offering up Pick 10 for Lyons and then I also threw Nankervis into the mix given Smooth was lacking adequate backup ruck support with Lobb losing ruck status for 2017. In the end we reached agreement a fair trade was achieved. As I have pointed out earlier there was always the chance that Nankervis was going to flop at Richmond and end up on the AFL scrapheap so to get something for him while I could, seemed like a good deal. After 3 pre-season matches it looks like Smooth has gotten himself a bargain and I now hope Lyons proves 2016 wasn’t a once off and continues to score heavily at the Gold Coast.

Trade 4
Saladin trades

Bryce Gibbs and pick 95

To Redbull for Picks 4, 28 and 172.

With Pick 4 still in my hand and up for trade Saladin came knocking with an offer of Bryce Gibbs. Whilst I can’t stand him as a footballer I recognise that he offers something as a fantasy player. Last year he returned to his best and if he maintains this form in 2017 I believe the trade will be winner. There are very few coaches willing to give up players with 100+ averages and giving up picks 4 and 28 shows the kind of price you need to pay.

Trade 5
The Melkman trades Matthew Kreuzer + pick 39

to redbull for Joe Daniher + pick 136

This trade was one that only came up once it became apparent I was going to be lacking a top line ruckman with Tom Nicholls struggling to get fit and keep the no. 1 spot at Gold Coast. When The Melkman came offering up Kreuzer it was just a matter of finding what I could offer up in return. His preference was for a forward and given I still had plenty of depth in this area I was willing to offer one up. To make the trade happen, it was Daniher who was the most likely to get the deal done. Joe was taken with pick 4 in the 2013 BBFFL#2 Draft (behind Jaeger O’Meara, Shaun Burgoyne and Lachlan Whitfield) and looks like he is potentially about to explode as fantasy player. However, my concerns about consistency of key position players meant I was willing to part with him. It is sad to see him go but getting a solid, albeit injury prone, ruckman suited my needs far more. Upon reflection, I could have maybe got a slightly earlier pick back from the deal, but the form of Kreuzer in the pre-season probably shows the deal is about right.

So the overall result of the trade period was as follows:

Players
In – Jarryd Lyons, Bryce Gibbs and Matthew Kreuzer
Out – Mitch Wallis, Jamie Elliott, Marley Wililams, Toby Nankervis and Joe Daniher

Picks
In – 39, 40, 52, 53, 88, 95
Out – 10, 28, 100, 118, 136, 172

The period saw me acquire 3 potential high scoring players in the two positions I had greatest concern. To achieve this, I gave up my first two picks and 5 players – 4 of which could have made my keepers but all with question marks. Overall I think I have strengthened my scoring ability and if my team stays fit I should push towards making the 8.

Draft Review
With my first two picks gone it wasn’t until pick 39 that I would enter the draft. Buoyed with my selection of Josh Dunkley with pick 59 in the 2016 BBFFL#2 I was hoping I might be able to snag another first-year player along the way that could score well and become a keeper. However my first priority was to try and find some youngish semi established talent that could add to my bench strength.

Pick 39 – Nic Newman – B Sydney
Finding high scoring backs is one of the tough parts of this game. With my first two picks falling back to back I thought it was the perfect chance to grab a couple of backs. Newman’s NEAFL fantasy numbers over the last couple of years have been great and the Swans were happy to upgrade him from the rookie list at the end of 2016. Also the Swans have a long history of stashing solid footballers in their 2s for a couple of years before they step up and play solid AFL footy. His first JLT Cup match showed he has the potential to perform at AFL level. Another reason for this pick was that in the final keepers squads the Swans were 2 least represented AFL team, only ahead of Carlton, meaning there were players in the draft pool that will play games in 2017. Unfortunately, he was not selected for JLT Cup 3 match and now must be some way off playing in Round 1. This might be a bust but I am still hopeful he will get a chance to show what he can do at AFL level.

Pick 40 – Daniel Howe – BC – Hawthorn
Howe showed some promising signs in 2016 and all signs out of Hawthorn are that they will be willing to push on with youth more in 2017. An extra bonus was his dual position status, something which I really rate at it adds so much flexibility to your squad. During the final week of the trade period I had given serious consideration to trading for Howe, however the form of Jake Barrett in his 2 JLT cup matches meant my 20 keepers were locked in. Ironically it was pick 40 which I was potentially willing to offer up to Come Back Hirdy for Howe. The downside with Howe is that he has been unsighted this pre-season with little or no explanation as to why by Hawthorn. As a result he like Newman is unlikely to feature early in the season which could cause some trouble if injuries hit my backline.

Pick 46 - F - Aaron Vandenberg
Vandenberg is someone the Demons seem to love. He is a competitive beast who played some great footy in 2015 before having an injury interrupted 2016. Unfortunately, just a couple of days after making this pick the news came out that he is injured again and will miss 4 to 6 weeks. Although not ideal I am hoping that once fit he can force his way into the best 22 and score well. In 2016 he was a CF so there is also the slight possibility he could regain this dual status.

Pick 52 – CF - Ben Howlett
With this pick I was looking for someone who could really score well if given the opportunity. We all know what Howlett brings to the table and if he can force his way into the team he should average around 80. The risk here is how he comes back from 12 months off and if there is actually a spot in the team for him at all. Missing out of the final JLT match is not a great sign, nor were back to back scores in the 40s. However I am hopeful it was more a management thing that saw him miss the match against Geelong.

Pick 53 -RF - Callum Sinclair
Sinclair was in the mix for making my final 20 keepers but his scoring last year and lack of a pre-season meant I couldn’t squeeze him in. His scoring was severely restricted in 2016 as the Swans preferred to use Tippett as the first ruckman. Injury niggles also didn’t help his scoring. Again he was unable to secure a spot in the 3rd JLT match which is a concern and the competition for the 2nd ruck spot is hot with Cameron and Naismith also in the mix.

Pick 64 – CF - Alex Neal-Bullen
Probably the best chance of actually playing in Round 1 of my 10 draftees. His fantasy form as a under age player was excellent and if given an extended run at AFL level I expect him to produce similar results. His score of 71 on Thursday was pleasing and I am hopeful he can do similar tings comes Round 1. With this pick I would have taken Riley Knight had Saladin not grabbed him at 59 while I also considered Jack Graham as my smokey first year pick.

Pick 82 – B - Luke Ryan
This pick could prove to be a waste but there was a little bit of method behind my madness. Freo have a history of picking VFL players and throwing them into the mix early. Ryan however doesn’t seem likely for the first few rounds given he has been unsighted in the JLT. The other reason for which I was keen to grab him was that it offers me some protection should either Sutcliffe or Crozier get injured.

Pick 88 – CF Daniel Robinson
Along with Neal-Bullen, Robinson is also a chance of playing Round 1. Must like Newman he has done his time in the NEAFL and after 7 games at AFL level in 2016 he is ready to nail down a best 22 spot this year. He was previously drafted by the Bulls in 2015 with pick 159 before getting chopped before debuting. His preseason form has been solid with his highest score coming in the last match. Once again dual position flexibility is an added bonus as I may struggle to have too many players on the field in Round 1.

Pick 95 – B -Bailey Williams
My only real speculative young player taken this year. Williams managed 6 games for the Bulldogs in their premiership season as a first year player. His underage numbers in South Australia were very strong. As a back he also helps fill that void. This pick was taken just prior to him not making the final 24 in JLT match 3. Again this is a pick that could go either way.

Pick 153 -CF - Matt de Boer
De Boer probably would have made my keepers if he had stayed fit. However once he went down with a hammy it made it a massive stretch. It will be really interesting to see if he can break into the GWS team when fit, but you have to think they picked him in the draft for a specific reason. My hope is that he will be able to score freely when given the chance. If he does get the chance and is given freedom he is a genuine 80 average type of player. I ummed and arhhed about taking him with 95 and was most pleased that he managed to slip all the way down to 153.

So in summary I have picked a whole bunch of players who are capable of scoring well but all have significant job security issues. Unfortunately this is how I draft - no matter how much I try to prioritise job security! Bypassing this year’s draftees may be a risk, but it was something I was willing to do without a pick until 38. No doubt I will be casting off some of these picks in return for some free agents who play in the first couple of rounds, but I really want to keep the faith that I have made the right choices and they will be rewarded with games shortly.

Best 22
Backs – Zac Williams, Jack Martin, Jamie Macmillan, Hayden Crozier, Cam Sutcliffe
Mids – Bryce Gibbs, Joel Selwood, Jarryd Lyons, David Armitage, Liam Shiels, Reece Conca, Scott Selwood
Ruck – Matthew Kreuzer
Forwards – Jackson Macrae, Elliott Yeo, Ling Jong, Josh Jenkins, Josh Dunkley
Bench – Tom Nicholls, Nic Newman, Alex Neal Bullen, Daniel Robinson

6 Likes

Call me crazy but why don’t you guys have the 6-5-6-1 format?

you’re crazy. We have 5-7-5-1

You shouldn’t talk about yourself like that!

The reason is this best fits the UF position allocation. Also it is more reflective of the way modern AFL is played. When was the last time an AFL team actually played with 6 forwards and 6 backs?

Yeah changing the 7 mids to 6 backs and 6 forwards is just going to mean that instead of struggling to cover for mids, we are struggling to cover for defenders and/or forwards.

I must admit, I did like the utility position in a 5-6-1-5 + 1 utility. However I think it would mean fewer rucks are available. I certainly wouldn’t have traded Kreuzer with a utility slot, I’d have just carried Stef and Kreuzer.

2 Likes

its only the ‘wrong’ pick in the sense of what i think the total list and subsequent picks/needs might have been. not so much the outright pick number.

but like i said, i listed Jordan Foote so really i’m no authority on anything at all. lol.

I’d used the current squads thread which has him listed as CR. What an idiot. Hopefully Witts is so awesome this year that it doesn’t matter.

1 Like

Thanks for your insight Pazz.

1 Like

Don’t disagree with the model. I think my team will take a drop this year.

Surprised that Barge is still top dog though, thought Smooth should have him covered quite comfortably.

Oh yep, thanks for that, just curious.

I saw plenty of 6-5-6-1 on Sunday when I watched live, obviously during the match an extra floated back when we were in trouble but fair enough. If you’s struggle to cover positions I don’t know why you’s just don’t do your own like our comp. Blivcas for example is clearly a ruck fill in so should be FR. I think you’s do yourself a disservice by using the very dodgy UF positions imo.

The other thing I didn’t mention is that it doesn’t account for superior depth, which smooth has in my opinion.

I wouldn’t worry too much about your team, the way I see the model is that its a baseline model. The key to winning long term is to use that subjective football knowledge to find the players that buck the trend.

1 Like