BBFFL#2 2018 Discussion


#983

Team are open for changes still.


#984

Nice to get Newman in for his first game.

Happy to sneak Harry Marsh as a fa too. Neafl numbers have been strong.


#985

I would love to know how UF predicts it’s scores… it reckons Kyle Langford is going to score 130 this week against GC. Given his previous best ever score was 102 a couple of weeks ago, seems wildly optimistic.


#986

I have no idea! However Langford’s predicted score is so high is because Gold Coast give up plenty of points. Noticed last week North scores were predicted to be huge and a lot of them actually were. They must give plenty of weight to the opponent and then factor in recent form.


#987

Correct and it means they use an extrapolative method and not an interpolative method as they predict out of that players historical range.


#988

Haha and that means?? When can we expect the Bix weekly predictions?


#989

langford has never scored outside of 0-102 before, so to predict it you need to extrapolate which is interesting.

I do actually have a little program, but its still a bit shithouse, ill work on it and get back to you by round 20.


#990

BBFFL#2 Round 17 Preview
Don to Death (10) vs westozziebomber (17)
UF Prediction: Don to Death 1261 westozziebomber 1030
Head to Head: Don to Death 4 westozziebomber 3
Last time: Don to Death 1451 Defeated westozziebomber 1221 Round 5 2017
Form: Don to Death WWWWL westozziebomber LLLLL
Last week: Don to Death 1404 westozziebomber 1123
Season Average: Don to Death 1323 westozziebomber 1016

Vandrs (18) vs Bargey (4)
UF Prediction: Vandrs 1248 Bargey 1393
Head to Head: Never previously met
Form: Vandrs LLLLL Bargey WLWLW
Last week: Vandrs 1212 Bargey 1426
Season Average: Vandrs 1154 Bargey 1411

Eggs (12) vs TrevorBix (13)
UF Prediction: Eggs 1168 TrevorBix 1361
Head to Head: Eggs 6 TrevorBix 3
Last time: Eggs 1466 Defeated TrevorBix 1327 Round 19 2017
Form: Eggs LLLLL TrevorBix LWLLW
Last week: Eggs 1282 TrevorBix 1356
Season Average: Eggs 1268 TrevorBix 1281

Come Back Hirdy (8) vs cafegerat (9)
UF Prediction: Come Back Hirdy 1343 cafegerat 1692
Head to Head: Come Back Hirdy 3 cafegerat 1
Last time: Come Back Hirdy 1415 Defeated cafegerat 1098 Round 7 2017
Form: Come Back Hirdy LWWWL cafegerat WLLWW
Last week: Come Back Hirdy 1328 cafegerat 1498
Season Average: Come Back Hirdy 1342 cafegerat 1331

saladin (15) vs Birch19 (6)
UF Prediction: saladin 1460 Birch19 1426
Head to Head: saladin 1 Birch19 3
Last time: saladin 1470 Defeated Birch19 1261 Round 16 2017
Form: saladin WLLLL Birch19 LLWWW
Last week: saladin 1167 Birch19 1333
Season Average: saladin 1320 Birch19 1393

Ivan (14) vs 51 Bewick (7)
UF Prediction: Ivan 1195 51 Bewick 1383
Head to Head: Ivan 0 51 Bewick 1
Last time: Ivan 1018 Lost to 51 Bewick 1363 Round 16 2017
Form: Ivan LWLLW 51 Bewick LWWLW
Last week: Ivan 1277 51 Bewick 1274
Season Average: Ivan 1207 51 Bewick 1350

Stoops (16) vs No. 5 (11)
UF Prediction: Stoops 1266 No. 5 1337
Head to Head: Stoops 5 No. 5 2
Last time: Stoops 1406 Lost to No. 5 1468 Round 7 2017
Form: Stoops LLLLL No. 5 WWLWL
Last week: Stoops 1242 No. 5 1244
Season Average: Stoops 1270 No. 5 1278

Matches of the Round
Wezza (3) vs The Melkman (5)
UF Prediction: Wezza 1537 The Melkman 1403
Head to Head: Wezza 2 The Melkman 5
Last time: Wezza 1679 Defeated The Melkman 1400 Round 7 2017
Form: Wezza WWWWW The Melkman WLWWW
Last week: Wezza 1383 The Melkman 1455
Season Average: Wezza 1422 The Melkman 1408

redbull (1) vs Aceman (2)
UF Prediction: redbull 1586 Aceman 1561
Head to Head: Head to Head: Never previously met
Form: redbull WWWWW Aceman WWWWL
Last week: redbull 1649 Aceman 1373
Season Average: redbull 1548 Aceman 1483


#991

Naturally, The week I leave him on the bench is the week Rowan Marshall delivers on the promise that made me draft him.

Edit:. Won’t matter. He’ll come off the bench for Stringer.


#992

Yeah they are, but then he gets a game in the seniors and he plays a different role.

NEAFL numbers never translate to AFL numbers. Just look at Jake Barrett!


#993

Left Naughton out because he has been playing out of position (forward), so the WB move him back.
Sheesh!


#994

Good match up against Aceman. So far my 12 players and his 5 players are averaging exactly 85 points.


#995

Naitanui gone, the curse continues


#996

Pending any late late outs in the Freo Port games teams are all sorted on UF. Easier week ever - just one change required!


#997

A huge thank you to Mark Hutchings and the rest of the Eagles team. They did an absolute number of Aceman’s Pies players. Hutchings kept Sidebottom to just 48 - well below his previous season low of 77. Also Grundy only managed 68 despite Nic Nat going down. This is only his second sub 100 score for 2018, the previous one was in Round 1. While a clearly unfit Hoskin-Elliott only scored 24.

Unfortunately the battle has hasn’t lived up to expectations with both teams having a number of players well below their usual scores.


#998

Jetta should cover Jacobs being out, currently my first emg is Richards (B)


#999

Done - must have thought Jacobs had a score next to him.


#1000

78 up with a half to come from DBJ vs Langdon. Should record a late-season consolation victory.


#1001

Possibly my highest score, I’ve had a few good weeks in a row now, it feels much better than being a perennial cellar dweller!


#1002

How is it that a FA was picked up yesterday after the cut off Friday?