I still think that data is still very much relevant, and a brilliant find by you. It certainly helps confirm what may of us here are thinking. There is no doubt that it is damning. We just need to keep factors such as what simmo41 is saying in mind when we do analyse data such as this.
We aren’t expecting precision,but you do expect accuracy over long time periods.
So based on what we know, the video from the last three games alone would be pretty long.
Worth it though.
I feel it’s worth pointing out that Richmond’s free kick differential has been in the negative for the last two years. Look what that did to them.
-edit- Dustin Martin gave away more free kicks than he was awarded in 2017, and the umpires voted him the best and fairest player in the whole competition.
I suggest to get around issues of assumptions, do nonparametric analyses of the data you have generated.
I would be happy to do so if you can send or post the data - even in aggregate.
I’ll post a link tomorrow. I’m working on a ML approach to see if it’s predictable and if so what are the important features. It may be that teams averaging more tackles/CP/whatever may be the strongest predictor, but I can’t see it in the raw data.
The point is valid and when we look at the way they play it makes sense. But what the data that bix posted clearly shows is a huge swing. I made the point earlier that perhaps our style of play is something to do with it over that period of time, we have also won more then we lost and are actually playing a pressure/tackling style of game not dissimilar to Richmond over this period.
But for the numbers to swing that far away from our favor is still far, far to much for me to believe that its the only factor at play. Especially having watched the games myself. I am not the only one seeing it my father has also said the same thing to me and he is not a EFC supporter at all.
You could also do Time Series analyses of the graphs you have generated. These are much more sophisticated but may be common in your line of work…?
The Freekick awarded against Brown last week in the North game where the player ducked into his tackle after trying to jump and handball a few seconds earlier should be in Woosha please explain video. The commentators even called it a horrendous decision except BT who mumbled some ■■■■ about 1 ump seeing play on and another ump calling the freekick against.
Especially as Collingwood also playing similar game to Tigers and yet they have the best differential in the league.
Which can only be explained by nothing more than the AFL wanting the Pies instead of losing and getting Bucks sacked/upheaval to do well IMO
Which included farking us over last week.
Would be great if someone had the time to do this. But it needs to be subjective and also include the free kicks that the op should have got as well. Not an easy thing to do and very time consuming too.
The ones that will really stand out are the ones that the op gets that we don’t that are very similar, and the ones we get pinned for that the op doesn’t in that particular game of course.
Oh don’t get me wrong, I believe that…
a) the rules allow for enough subjectivity in umpiring for unconscious bias to play a significant enough role to be noticed
b) a number of umpires have unconscious bias against certain teams
But a directive from the top brass? Come onnnnnnn…
hahahaha, and the conspiracy theorists are fanciful, your premise is that the umpires are basing their decisions on the noise of Essendon fans who they believe would be wrong as opposed to the great intelligentsia of the WCE or Crows… riiiiiiight.
Its not just the WC & Crows fans. Don’t you remember when the De goey mark wasn’t paid, the Collingwood fans all accepted the decision without complaint or abuse right. They really are a well mannered lot unlike the EFC fans who are of course the only supporter group who ever make any negative reaction to umpires. We really do deserve it.
There is absolutely no value whatsoever in bringing up individual incidents to strengthen an argument of systematic ‘blatant cheating’ over years. Fark, this should be obvious.
I would love to get Finnis in a witness box. He has lots to tell.
Any of them that actually ended up there will be using the Andruska defence, and will be praised for this, then get new cushy jobs, bonuses and promotions for their mates, man we never learn
if I was told where to download the game I would happily do Sundays game.
Richo said last night that the Tiggas are 18th for free diff, … so worst off in the League this year.