If the three week moving average differential is outside 3 standard deviations from the AFL game mean then it’s probably intentional. If it continues for more than a week then then its defintily intentional. If it’s 2 then id say its biased incompetance and should revert rapidly.
The probability of having three diabolical weeks in a row outside 3 std dev is so improbable in a game where there is no random chance involved it shouldn’t happen.
Although you may be correct mathematically - that reasoning does not take into account the fact that there are two different teams of different qualities and game plans on the field. Your logic is for two equal entities.
I disagree, the long term average differential distribution is based on non equal teams and variability of umpires, player skill, coaching, draw and all the other variable you want to enter. It inherently takes that into account through the shape of the distribution.
Really?
So - let’s test your logic then.
Let’s say a team of Cats were playing a team of Piglets.
How do your short/long term stats account for the whole lot of scratches attained by the Piglet team as opposed to the Cat team?
Obviously a ridiculous example. But the point is - a team with higher possessions will be tackled more. A team that is focusing on pressure will go in harder at the man. A team that is relying on a tall forward set up will be awarded more frees for chopping the arms. A team that concedes the clearance to scoop it up and turnover will be awarded more HTB frees. And so on.
I don’t understand how anyone got sympathy from filth supporters about the umpiring. I got into heated discussion with two of them at work who reckon THEY got the raw deal. Didn’t push the issue as I could see they were getting increasingly frustrated by my stance. No point in permanently damaging working relationships about football especially since I wasn’t going to convince them otherwise.
I had a few pies mates that agreed we got a really poor run. They thought we looked the much better side. We both agreed however that we run out of legs in the last
Absolutely, also annoys me that they seem to have a theme for the round that they will pick on. Like deliberate out of bounds one week, holding the man the next. Just pay the very obvious ones all the time, and let the 50 50 ones go
You are referenceing a single sets scenario in a longitudinal average of free kick differential over 25+ years. The time series of free kick differential is what accounts for all the permiatations you are talking about. And as such any major deviation from them would be evident.
You have any sort of relationship with Pies fans? Especally when you know who keeps stealing your lunch from the fridge…
James Hird said on the podcast yesterday that he went to see the umpires boss a couple of times with a few issues. They agreed the decisions were wrong. Got smashed in the free kick count the next week…
Should be an excellent game with bald number 14 and the chick umpiring. They did the Brisbane Carlton game last week. Both sides left scratching their heads as to decisions. It unified the crowd…
Mitch Brown got absolutely mugged by Scharenburg all game. Pretty much wrapped his arms around him and held/corralled out of every marking contest. Should’ve kicked 8 if the Umps had paid the blatant free kicks