Next Captain?
Scott is so beyond not the answer.
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You can still be good whilst rebuilding
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Define good.
Probably need to define rebuilding too.
Based on the majority of the discussion on Blitz, weâre not rebuilding. Rebuilding is prioritising the 18 to 24 players on your list ahead of everyone else unless the ones above their age are elite, All Australian talent and not too far âpast their peakâ. In our team, itâs Merrett only with maybe a handful of others (Martin, Durham, Caldwell), but thatâs it.
Rebuilding teams win less than 5 games per season. Maybe some creep to the 6 or 7, but they are more likely to be âtankingâ for the first second pick in the draft.
If youâre only winning 5 games a season, your percentage is far more likely to be below 80% and youâll suffer some heavy losses along the way. And obviously, the less games you win, the lower your percentage and the greater likelihood that you get smashed.
Iâve observed a lot of opposition teamâs fan forums in the last decade and the ones that are bad during the season, all sing to a similar tune. Coach cannot develop. Players arenât good enough. Recruitment is poor. Coach has no plan B. Weâre going nowhere. Just fold the club. And so on. Heck, I even read similar things on Geelongâs fan forum prior to their 2022 grand final victory and Iâd say they are one of the three or four best run and coached clubs in the country. I havenât bothered checking that forum, but Iâd say the same criticisms would be happening since their GF loss too. And itâll just grow itâs own legs from there, regardless of what the results show.
From just glancing at ladders, it appears that if youâre winning between 0 and 5 games then your percentage is on average around 85% (probably less). And looking at a few seasons, youâre likely to lose 4 to 5 games by 60 points or more.
Since 2012 (itâs easy to check ladder on AFL website), itâs commonly around 3 or 4 teams per year that won 5 games or less. But there were some seasons where there were 1 or 2 teams in there, so there are a few years where the gap between 3rd/4th and 15th/16th is minimised. This is during the period that GWS entered the comp and Gold Coast were establishing themselves. And weirdly, the last three years have seen more sub 5 win teams than the years before even though there have been more games.
Looking at those teams, I at no stage thought they âlooked goodâ during those depths. Quite the opposite. And looking at the common teams that have been below 5 wins, itâs been Melbourne (2012) and Brisbane (2015) who have won a premiership from those depths. And it took them around 8 years to turn it around.
For the darlings of development, Hawthorn were there in 2020. And thatâs it. And thatâs a bit of an âoutlierâ because there were only 17 games that season and 5 teams finished with 5 or less wins. At no other stage in that period were they 5 wins or less in a season. GWS were there a few times when they entered the league, but once they got their yearly stream of first round draft picks, were up towards the top of the ladder apart from 1 season for memory. Sydney and Collingwood flashed into that zone in one year then bounced straight back out.
I didnât bother checking how many made prelims. I think thatâs another good measure of having a âsuccessfulâ rebuild without ultimately winning the premiership but at least being in the conversation for one.
In general, truly rebuilding teams do look terrible. Because the game isnât built for a full 23 of 18 to 24 years olds. Heck, even if you were conservative and said 16 of them, it probably wouldnât result in âlooking goodâ. They just arenât ready to do 16km of interval running in a game, play a heavily contested style game (which you need to do to be competitive) and be able to do it consistently enough across 23~ games. Without looking at data, Iâd say it takes around 2 or 3 full pre-seasons (can be interrupted) and majority of games during the season (VFL or AFL) to build up to that level.
I suspect how a team âlooksâ is more based on emotion and personal feel. The only reason we think other teams âlook goodâ during their rebuild is because weâre not stuck in the weeds of the rebuild and following the emotional rollercoaster of it. We probably only watch those ârebuilding teamsâ once a month at best or highlight packages. We do catch the teams on their way out of a rebuild though, which we then look back at highlights ts of what they did well, more likely ignoring when they looked rubbish.
North Melbourne is a good example. They look terrible. And Iâm surprised the rhetoric is that they should have been past the â60 point lossesâ after their first few games this season. They have been in the range where a 60 point loss is likely for years now. Iâd wager, they become more competitive next season and get out of that range and win more than 5 games. But I still expect theyâll still suffer a 60 point loss. Even though they screwed up and traded away their first pick, they still have enough talent to improve next season.
Long winded post, but my point is, unless youâre emotionally detached from the situation, every rebuild looks terrible. Iâd wager itâs worse than whatever we want to call what weâve been through the last 20 years. This year was a good sample size of it and the sentiment certainly wasnât âwe look goodâ. And I donât expect us to âlook goodâ next year either. With some natural development, we should improve across the season though. We may âlook goodâ for short periods, but overall weâd be pretty poor.
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Personally the biggest failing of the club is weâve been given 5 or 6 messages in the last 3 years alone (to take one example, but not the only one).
It stifles the entire clubâs ability to actually ever do anything.
The top brass is just 100% reactive and everyone under them has to dance to that tune. Whether itâs Scott or Rutten, Disco or Rosa, or whomever. If youâre planning at the start of the year to go for finals then youâre going to pick sides differently than if youâre consciously rebuilding.
thereâs no coherent, top level message from one month to the next, let alone over years.
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I define good as progressing in a forward direction, it doesnât mean finals or ladder position.
To me, itâs all about progressing the game plan and seeing obvious improvement with the kids and the team as a whole. Itâs also about building a cohesive squad capable of covering injuries and player unavailability - this year was an exception on that one.
As for rebuild, I feel youâve covered it perfectly for 5-10 years ago, although, Iâm not totally convinced it can be that drastic these days.
Your description requires the competition to be totally equal, and itâs not even close to that. Consequently, Iâm not sure the bottoming out approach will work.
During the time you are bottoming out, the more successful clubs will be in the ear of your more developed and/or senior players, who will be tempted by success, meaning your 2 year bottoming out becomes 4, then rinse & repeat. We are seeing this with Merrett.
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No heâs not. We donât want or need another old stager, especially one whoâs never played in or coached a premiership team. We need young and smart and energetic and HUNGRY.
Brad Scott is the next piece in the rebuild that needs addressing. 13 straight losses, late season fade-outs the previous 2 years, points to problems with the coach. Communication and connection have been raised.
His inability to embed a defensive profile in 3 years is damning. Ross bloody Lyon in 1 preseason had his team defending the ground, despite other aspects of their game falling short. They are 1 of the better teams to transition out of defence and Essendon still struggle to move the ball.
With losses mounting, morale will erode, and the coachâs messaging will wear thin, if it hasnât already.
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Heâs another long-serving, unimaginative, unexciting coach who has never won anything. And we wonât win a damn thing with him in charge.
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Barham leaving wonât help his cause either.
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I Reckon it is even more discombobulated than that !
Itâs simple.
We play to our strengths.
Unfortunately we have none.
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I reckon heâs most benefited from this Merrett palava.
He now has an asset that should provide him more Wâs than if we traded Merrett.
Now there are reasonable people here who understand that we may need to go back to go forwards, but the club has historically reacted poorly to continued â â â â â â results.
Merrett makes us more competitive in 2026 and those results is what Scott will be reliant upon.
Just to be clear, I donât agree with that, but itâs the Essendon way
I want to win every game. If Merrett helps us do that, thatâs great. You make progress by winning, not losing. What I donât want is the sort of defensive, negative, backwards and sideways â â â â that we have been getting for years. Attack and apply full pressure and kick goals. Iâm sick of players whose first instinct with the ball is to look sideways. Iâm sick of forwards who canât kick a goal from 30 metres. Iâm sick of players who point instead of chasing.
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Canât see Scott getting moved on sadly. He is here for the next 3 years.
We should be looking towards our post Brad coach nowâŚ.
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Who?
I personally wanted Kingsley when he was availableâŚ
Who is the next anti vanilla coach out there..
please dont say Scott Burns.
That is an extremely depressing thought. My fear is that weâll string together a few wins as we did at the beginning of this year against crappy teams. We wonât beat anybody good â maybe scratch out one win against a reasonable mid-table team, and Brad and the boys will talk about turning the corner and maybe even the â â â â â â â Essendon Edge, and extend the plodder for 3 more years. That would really be par for the course.
This is my point. We will need to start working ahead on a strategy to replace Brad. Identify talent and even bring them over.
I see your Scott Burns and raise you Hayden Skipworth.
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I see your skipworth and raise you Rob Harvey
I disagree. We clearly are trying to win now, and if Brad canât get the group to play a good gameplan and at least get close to final, (like the Bulldogs this year), then he should be gone at the end of the year.