England: Mr Bates versus the Establishment

A repeat referendum is actually a seperate issue, and basically is a desperate hope for a different verdict rather than a clearer direction. Because another “Leave” vote means confronting the exact same issues - how to incorporate a soft border with Republic of Ireland without contravening EU requirements, a Scottish “stay” vote etc.

It’s also an interesting philosophical question about whether they’d now “stay” simply because it’s pragmatically too difficult to “leave” and what that says about the EU system in general.

Of course, they CAN always just go. They just wouldn’t have a reasonable deal. Which neither the Leave nor Stay sides actually want.

The stupidity of it all is that there was never any real need for the first vote. Blair totally and utterly screwed the pooch for domestic political ends, not imagining for a moment that the people might actually vote to go.

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Or maybe Cameron, not Blair.

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Correct. Cameron had his “Blair moment” but, unlike Blair, only succeeded in damaging his own country, rather than several others.

Doh. Correct. I often get those two mixed for some reason.

Teresa May will be forever known as Britain’s Matthew Knights, handed a poisoned chalice, and only adding a lot more poison to it.

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I don’t think that’s fair actually. Keep
In mind that May voted remain. She thinks the whole thing is stupid like the rest of us but is nevertheless trying to implement it by negotiating a deal which means the economy doesn’t go over a cliff (not to mention the Northern Ireland problem, and about a hundred other issues).

If anything the fault here can be sheeted back to that group of hardcore leavers who won’t accept any engagement or relationship with Brussels. And if they take that view that’s fine, but the economy is going to tank and millions are going to be put out of work.

I don’t think May has done a stellar job by any means but she can’t be totally blamed for the catastrophe that’s now coming in two months.

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I have more time for her than that. I think she’s done as well as she could with an impossible task. As others have said, the simple In or Out question was unbelievably stupid, and things have played out exactly as could have been foreseen. (And just by the way, a simple Republic Yes or No would be equally incredibly stupid for us and for exactly the same reasons.)

The referendum said Leave, so she’s spent two years negotiating, and despite what Jeremy Corbyn keeps saying there is absolutely no reason to think that anyone else could have got anything better. (Corbyn’s performance the other day with Andrew Marr was pathetic.)

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Leaving probably isn’t the best option but they definitely have to pull rank and put their foot down. No way should the UK be taking orders from some tinpot EU country

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Yep agree.

There’s a saying in legal/commercial negotiations which I agree with. It is that “the best deal is the one that everyone hates a little bit”.

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Suez and Indian independence both happened over sixty years ago. The UK hasn’t been a major power since then. The British Empire is dead as the Roman Empire, and a nuclear capability they can’t afford and the legacy of Churchill and the Spice Girls do nothing to change that. The UK IS a tinpot EU country.

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All this because of a non-binding plebiscite with no detail. It’s a silly situation, from what was probably a meaningless vote.

And democracies tend to regret their past votes fairly often, so it’s also probably silly to say the UK can never vote on the issue again cause… “democracy”?

Well, it’s the 2nd biggest EU economy (behind Germany) so I’m not sure “tin pot” is apt. Though the empire is certainly long gone.

Just on Tinpot,. Greece is in the middle of a no confidence vote in its parliament right now.

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If Brexit happens, that will change very quickly.

What happens if British parliament don’t pass a brexit plan by the deadline?

Then brexit happens regardless with no plan in place, and the fecal matter hits the rotary air impeller good and proper in areas ranging from customs at Dover to the Northern Irish border to the entire British food export industry.

A long, deep recession, at best. In a worst case, a restart of the Troubles in nth Ireland, massive shortages of food and medicines and other everyday necessities, a serious attempt at secession by Scotland, and a collapse of the health industry and of agriculture as migrant workers leave. Among other fun times.

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Maybe, maybe not. I don’t think it would end up as bad as some of the doomsdayers are predicting but it definitely could become uncomfortable for awhile.
As for Scotland, let them go. They would be back in no time :joy:

Bank of England estimate is a 10 percent hit to GDP if a deal-less exit is forced.

That’s seriously , seriously destructive.

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How much longer they got? They better get moving then.

March 27 iirc.

Why shortages of things?

I would think imports are pretty easily dealt with as Britain can write what ever rules they want. It’s the export markets and potential tariffs on exports that will hurt.