Brexit


#482

I think she’s immune from an in-party challenge for 12 months after surviving a Tory leadership coup late last year.

I don’t think that’s the same thing as a parliamentary no-confidence vote, which would spill the Gov and all parties could then form coalitions to try to establish a majority. I think. I’m not claiming to be across all this.

Edit: I’d assume that the Tories would still have the numbers with DUP support. But again, I don’t know.


#483

#484

yes think thats the point a new government would have to be formed with the same members so one would assume the same government without may leading it, can’t think of another outcome in a 2 party system, unless a minority party holds the balance of power which rarely happens


#485

Australia 1941


#486

If the referendum was held in Australia it never would have gone through. Here we need a majority of people in the majority of states. There it only was the majority of people. That’s why it was easy for Howard to screw the Republic refurendum.
Would have been interesting if it were the majority of people in the majority of counties.


#487

It’s now quite hilarious. Essentially, it seems House of Commons have passed themselves permission to go back to the EU - May is even referring to it as a mandate! - to reopen “negotiations” and ask for removal of the backstop provisions. Which the EU have already denounced and seemingly off they go in circles again.


#488

Don’t they have less than 70 days? What an almighty disaster.


#489

iTs tEh ReMoAnErS FaWlT!


#491

If Ireland is the problem, just give Nth Ireland back. No border no worries, right…


#492

Ireland may actually need a hard border to keep out all the starving NI citizens if UK food prices go through the roof with a No Deal exit.

And according to a UK supermarket supplier, fruit and veg prices will skyrocket due to labour restrictions on most farm workers, importation and transport problems, a likely falling British pound and a 2 month blackspot between English growing seasons and import bans on March 29. His take is that a deal is bad enough, but no deal is insane .


#493

I was reading a BBC report before that dealt with the Irish border in the context of the Good Friday Agreement.

Interestingly, a hard customs border isnt likely to be illegal under the Good Friday Agreement. The Agreement doesn’t really set out specific conditions on the border. But virtually everyone on every side thinks that socially/morally it would be a disaster and reopen tensions between Republicans and Unionists.


#494

Oops
An unfortunate mix up by the BBC with a Brexit report showing visuals from an update on Biggin Hill airfield’s anniversary


#495


#496

The UK and Ireland joined the EU in concert. Prior to that, they had a free trade agreement and free movement of people. There was pretty much a soft border, the only difference being excise taxes. Also, the Irish Republic accords its citizenship to everyone in the six counties of Northern Ireland.
Ireland, as an EU member, could not indepentedly restore those longstanding bilateral economic and social arrangements with the UK.
Absent a EU deal on UK arrangements with Ireland, Brexit could undo most of what has been in existence since Irish independence from the UK.
The UK/ Ireland relationship is a sad matter. Brexit dashed hopes of both sides accepting reconciliation of historical grievances in 2016, the 100th anniversary of the Easter Uprising.


#497

No disrespect Big A, but that is a farking huge understatement.

" a sad matter " has been a disaster for the Irish and Brexit is of no consequence.

" reconciliation of historical grievances " - if you call invasion, occupation, stealing of land and property, rape, murder, torture, starvation and total obliviation of civil rights a mere grievance then you clearly are not Irish.


#498

Among many Irish ancestors, one who was transported for defender offences in the late 18th century, another who was brought out under the Carloline Chisholm scheme, another who fought in the Irish civil war ( escaped from Sligo jail).
I was brought up on Irish history.
I think it was Seamus Heaney who referred to some Irish as strangling themselves on the lampposts of Irish history. You can’t change the past, but don’t let the bitterness corrode the future.


#499

#500

It really is a debacle now. May lost another commons vote . Unbinding so in a sense it doesn’t matter, but symbolically it undermines her position to the EU that she can get a parliamentary consensus. She can’t. Both major parties are split, and even within stay/leave factions there are crucial divisions.

Bottom line here is that it is literally impossible to have a Brexit that isn’t either compromised in some way or breaks international treaties. Or both.


#501

Over the cliff they go. Just as it was always going to be.


#502

The irony is the areas who voted hardest for brexit - farmers, fishers - are going to be the hardest hit, both ways. Their market will shrink by a huge factor overnight, and the prices they have to pay for food will skyrocket.

You’d be stocking up on canned foods if you lived there…