Brexit


#663

It is still the default. May can (and has) ignore parliament. What on earth do you think the hard brexiters are going for?


#664

A UK Court determined that triggering Article 50 was not the prerogative of the Crown. The EU Withdrawal Act conferred on May the power to trigger Article 50. The conferral of that power does not appear to be conditional on the power that Parliament reserved to itself in that Act to approve the terms of a withdrawal agreement.
If there is no agreement, her Article 50 actions would not seem to have translated into a legally invalid action after the event.
The Government might need Parliamentary legislative approval to revoke Article 50.


#665

Easy for you to say that, seeig neither of us will be around in 50 years, never mind a million !

The same thing was said about the French franc, which, given its history, had iconic status in France. The French fascists (Neo-Gaullists) weren’t too happy about giving it up, but Lionel Jospin’s Socialists made sure of it, despite that prize prick Chirac.

The imperialistic English Tories share your view, but does the majority of ordinary English agree with you ? The great days of the English Empire are long gone, and more and more of the English hoi polloi are coming to realise that their future lies with Europe, rather than the alternative which involves pretending that there is a place for an independent post-imperial England in the world dominated by the USA, to whom the English (and Australians, too, btw) are nothing more than yard dogs to throw the odd bone to.

The tragedy of Brexit is that there are so many right-wing English who’d rather dream of their past imperial glory (if that is the correct term to describe the rape and pillage of a third of the globe), than toughen up and accept that the despised French (and Germans) are actually the best friends they have.


#666

The majority of regular English folk I know aswell as English relatives are dead against changing currency. That is probably the one non negotiable they desire.


#667

Stiglitz is pretty damning on the institutional structures supporting the Euro and the difficulties in having a single currency with so many diverse economies.
But it should not be a Brexit issue - rather, illustrates the measures of sovereignty of other than mendicant Member States can exercise through EU treaty opt out provisions


#668

Thanks. But can you say what does that mean in layman’s language?


#669

If Parliament does not accept a May/ EU agreement as a whole , the agreement is dead in the water. The Government cannot give effect to it without Parliamentary approval , under the terms of the UK EU Withdrawal Act.
That Act, passed by the Government, erodes Government executive powers ( probably would not happen if the UK had a written Constitution).
Hard Brexit goes ahead unless:
Parliament gives May the power to revoke the Article 50 notification to quit the EU , before the Article 50 deadline expires.
Or
Parliament amends the EU Withdrawal Act to abolish the requirement for Parliament to approve the agreement, restoring Government executive powers.
Both seem unlikely


#670

Haha. UK contingency planning for hard Brexit is called Operation Yellowhammer
The Yellowhammer birdsong is transcribed as : “ No cheese and a little bit of bread - please”


#671

It is still the default. May can (and has) ignore parliament. What on earth do you think the hard brexiters are going for?

it is not the default!! It is not an option and parliament has made that clear. The default is no brexit, however an extension and referendum are the most likely outcomes. It doesnt matter what the hard brexiters are going for as they are in such a small minority they are irrelevant


#672

OR
They take a longer extension and hold a second referendum


#673

If nothing is agreed by April 12 then the UK will exit to WTO rules. Unless something else is done or passed. So it’s the default.

Parliament also passed a week ago that May should seek a longer extension. How well is May following that votes outcome?


#674

30 June extension date is contingent on Parliament getting agreement.
Even if the EU were to pull something out of the hat before 12 April that would satisfy soft Brexiters, would they have the numbers in Parliament?
How are the Remainers going to get a second referendum before 12 April?
It’s a shambles - three opposing groups in Parliament which have virtually no common ground. Hard Brexiters could be on a winner.
Should have called Operation Yellowhammer Operation Norwegian Blue.


#675

Is yellowhammer being run out of the Home Office? Is that their version Dept Prime Minister and Cabinet?


#676

Operation Beautiful Plumage?


#677

Treasury code name. It’s a Cabinet Office document assigning cross departmental responsibilities and reporting lines - see Guardian article of 23 March which appears to be based on leaked Cabinet documents.
Could have called it dead parrots society.


#678

Pretty accurate reflection of how it’s all going to end up…

swallow


#679

It’s a laugh now. Well, has been for years. But the House that has been split into multiple competing factions for two years has passed itself the right to supposedly “take control of the process” via a day of multiple votes to determine the Houses course of action. As if a fractured Commons will suddenly unite instantly. Corbyn has declared “Where this government has failed, this House must succeed”. Which sounds great, except that on this issue the House and Gov effectively don’t exist because competing votes are often taken across party lines. He wants to Leave but his party largely wants to stay.
May wants to Stay but a large part of her party want out. So on Wednesday , the Commons will attempt to pass amendments on what to do from here via goodness knows how many votes - this promises to be hilarious. Quite feasible that they actually pass - or inadvertently try to pass - themselves contradictory amendments.

Meanwhile, reports are that some Brexiteers are being asked if they’ll now vote for May’s deal if May offers to quit. It’s…well, it’s just mind boggling that such a suggestion is even in play. Either you can vote for her deal on principle or you can’t on principle. Not “well it’s bad for the country but if I get to be PM…” . FFS. Everyone appears to have lost sight of the overarching principle - how to solve contradictory problems with the Ireland /Custom Union/backstop/hard border scenario- and are now focused on the minutiae of the countdown clock manoeuvring.

And I just saw a report that the DUP still prefer a 12 month delay than a “backstop” deal.

This ain’t going away any time soon. Unless the EU crack the sads and say “we’re done, you’re out on April 12th unless you withdraw article 50 and stay for good”.


#680

I know she was technically “Remain” for the referendum, but in any real sense of the word this is now bollocks. If May truly wanted to Remain, she would now be able to do so by saying the Speaker isn’t allowing another vote on her deal, and making sure it was either Remain (or a 2nd referendum) vs. a no-deal Brexit. Instead, everything she has said and done indicates she wants Brexit to occur, and if her deal can’t get through probably via no-deal.

This likely has as much about making sure the Tory party doesn’t split as any strong beliefs of her own. I think the only reason she was Remain for the referendum is she thought it was the smarter political move - which given it helped get her #10 turned out to have more immediate dividends than she likely anticipated. She never lobbied hard in the referendum.


#681

Britain is doomed - Old Winchester and Old Etonians having a go at each other on the floor of the House in front of the lower classes. Whatever happened to class solidarity?
Riveting debate about their different schooling and how that has shaped their positions on Brexit.


#682

Sod all this Brexit nonsense The Boat Race is on Sunday week. Huzzah!