Brexit


#683

So May has offered to quit in return for her plan being passed. That seems bizarre. Even more bizarrely, it has prompted some “No” voters to switch sides and declare they’d now vote it! That’s a disgrace, either the deal is a decent one or it’s not.

But the DUP have just declared that they cannot vote for May’s deal because the timeless backstop is still in existence. So it looks likely that Mays deal won’t come back to the House.

It seems Labour is now formally wanting a second referendum, which has prompted one shadow minister to quit and may lead to several more.

Parliament have just voted to delay Brexit -as expected and as per the EU agreement last week - and it sounds like the votes on what comes next won’t be held until Monday. Roughly 20% voted NOT to delay, which probably gives an indication of how many hard-brexit proponents there are in the Commons.


#684

Here are the indicative votes for various options. I’m not across the full import of each one.

Option B: a no-deal Brexit on April 12 – votes in favour 160, against 400

Option D: - Common Market 2.0 – votes in favour 188, against 283

Option H: single market membership – votes in favour 65, against 377

Option J: customs union with the EU – votes in favour 264, against 272

Option K: Labour’s plan for an alternative Brexit deal – votes in favour 237, against 307

Option L: revoke Article 50 if the alternative is a no-deal Brexit – votes in favour 184, against 293

Option M: second referendum – votes in favour 268, against 295

Option O: future trading relationship with the EU in case of a no-deal Brexit– votes in favour 139, against 422


#685

So:

They voted against a No Deal exit.

They also voted against junking Article 50 if no-deal was the only option! Errr,…

They narrowly voted against a second ref.

They voted against staying in the Common Market.

They voted narrowly against staying in a Customs Union.

They voted against Labours version of a deal (which doesn’t exist yet?)

And as for Option O, I don’t really know what that means but they shitcanned it anyway. Are they saying that if they leave without a deal, they DONT want a trading relationship with the EU!?

Lol.


#686

4 year old: I’m Starving!

Parent: What do you want for dinner

4 year old: Don’t Know!

Sausages?

NO!

Hamburgers?

NO!

Spaghetti?

NO!

Fish?

NO!

Soup?

NO!

THEN FARK OFF HUNGRY, YOU LITTLE SHITGIBBON.


#687

Customs Union and 2nd Ref were the two closest to being passed.

The Customs Union would (I think?) solve the border problem with Ireland, but obviously means they aren’t fully independent of the EU. Surely, that’s the best option available (given that they won’t withdraw Article 50) ?


#688

Are they legit votes, or was everything always going to fail because factions?

One option only lost by 6 votes, and a second referendum only by 14.
That seems like there’s some wiggle room.


#689

Least-worst option wins


#690

I presume lots of faction input, though there is some cross party voting/quitting occuring.

I also presume not one ounce of any of this is binding atm. Other than the extend-to-April-12th bit, which needed legislation.


#691

So, of the two results that were closest, seems like MPs still want a customs union and the economic benefits but want to exit from EU so that they can control immigration and not be beholden to European laws?


#692

I don’t think there’s a lot of economic benefit from the customs union. I think they’d need to stay in the EU Common Market for that?

But the Customs Union would probably solve the backstop problem for Northern Ireland.


#693

In relation to the Irish cross border trade, there would be little difference in impact between a customs union and an FTA and there are indications that the EU would be prepared to bend the rules to accomodate Irish interests ( the invisible border).
A straight customs union would be the least trade disruptive and would maintain a common trade border between the EU/UK and third countries , pretty much as you were - although there would need to be some sort of arrangement in relation to those third countries having FTAs with the EU , if the UK ceases to be a party to such treaties.
A customs union would inhibit UK capacity to set its own tariffs within WTO-bound limits and it would have little say in EU decisions, although there are possibilities for sectoral carve outs ( as with Norway in agriculture and fisheries)
Both options would allow the UK to enter into trade arrangements with third countries and to set up its own arrangements of preferences to developing countries within the limits of WTO rules.
The UK also has the option of rejoining EFTA to conclude an FTA with the EU.
With Irish interests uppermost, the EU would not want a hard Brexit. My guess is that both sides have maintained an informal file of negotiations on an FTA as a contingency


#694

If the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over -and hoping for a different result - then Theresa may have an issue…


#695

There’s an overarching message in this for us too, in the sense that allowing things to quietly drift past for political expediency/gain can lead to irresponsible/uninformed public feeling/decisions.


#696

She’s going to go a fourth time.


#697

United Kingdom in what name?
According to OECD reports, regional disparities in the UK are more marked than in other OECD members, in part attributable to the mish mash of local/ regional government systems with overlapping control by central government in Westminster.
Even with partial devolution to Scotland, Wales and Northen Ireland ( where Strormont has not sar for 2 years), the Brexit decision totally overlooked their interests, in particular Northern Ireland, with its direct interest in maintaining stable political and economic relations with the Irish Republic and also with the economic future of Ireland.
The people of Nothern Ireland should not overlook DUP treachery. Following the High Court judgment, it was Parliament, with DUP support, that gave May the power to revoke Article 50.
A government that farms out its decisions to a simple majority referendum on one of the most significant policies over decades in a nation with such regional differences - absent any considered policy document.
A government system which has ceased to operate on Cabinet lines.
A Parliamentary system which results in 8 different options being debated on the floor of the House with all the grandstanding that it involved. And no Parliamentary Committee structure that could have worked through such issues before they reached the floor of the House.
Reportedly, ten Conservatives have put up their hands to replace May.
If that’s the Westminster system of Government, give me a Federal system with a written constitution.


#698

Farrage in the Euro Parliament encouraging the EU to not grant further extensions and force a hard exit. What a piece of turd that bloke is. But we already knew that.


#699

Doesn’t he personally stand to make a lot of money from a hard exit?


#700

Rees-Mogg certainly.


#701

Yeah that’s the turd i was thinking of.


#702

People like Rees-Mogg and Farage and Boris Johnson make you think nostalgically of women knitting, tumbrils and cane baskets.