England: Mr Bates versus the Establishment

Conservative politics globally has become a race to the bottom in recent years.
Perhaps it was always this way.

More dinosaurs voting for the meteor.

So he’s been basically busted violently putting “his” Woman “in her place” on the eve of the vote for Tory Leader & PM??

Nice move campaign Manager, … he’s a dead cert to romp it in now.

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An interesting article by Ivan Rogers, who sounds like a Tory (is pro-Brexit), and served the UK representative to the EU for years (and thus has actual experience with the actual EU and its workings, and not the Brexiter fantasy).

It goes into detail about how the Tory positions are just lies, how the EU sees the whole situation, the impacts of a no-deal/WTO rules Brexit, and why he thinks no-deal is the most likely outcome.

He also talks about how no-deal Brexit is contrary to the promises in the referendum, without making the leap (no Torries do) that given the promises in that referendum can’t be met, how on earth can it therefore be valid and have a mandate? If Brexit doesn’t agree with the referendum’s Brexit, is it really democratic?

Edit: going back it seems I’m now blocked. So unless you’ve paid to subscribe, probably only get one or two free views

So Hard Brexit Boris now has a majority of just One, with the “Remain” platformed Lib Dems taking a Tory seat in a By election.

So it will now just take one MP to cross the floor and vote with the opposition to torpedo anything he wants to do.

He’s screwed already.

If the left and centre don’t form a coalition people might actually vote for the impending shitstorm of hard brexit.

Hard border in Ireland will be a disaster.

There was already a handful of Tory MP’s who stated they would cross the floor on any Hard Brex vote before they lost this seat.

There’s no way he can make it happen now.

One pundit suggested that ironically, if anyone could do a backflip as a Tory PM and go for a 2nd ref, … it was only Boris who could actually get away with it, and felt it was a distinct possibility.

Fingers crossed he’s correct.

He’s going to try and shut parliament out of the process and leave by default.

Really the only strong bargaining position for the UK is to be prepared to go through with no deal , which the EU do not want. The EU would not get the compo they want/need and effectively lose a major customer who they really need. But that takes real balls and probably Boris is the only person with the guts to push it to the end game and get a more favorable compromise.

Boris probably will not last long, but he is not going to turn to water when it comes to the end game.
Whilst May just fizzled out, for Boris its hero or zero.

Most Europeans don’t give a fark about UK and absolutely do not need them.

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For an individual EU country they make perhaps 5-10% of their trade with the UK.

For the UK they have 50% of their trade with the EU…

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7851

If that’s their strategy, they’re stuffed.

You’ve got to remember that in ireland in particular, the UK are demanding something that the EU simply can’t give unless the EU ceases to have meaning. The No Deal proponents are demanding they have their cake (ability to ignore EU regulations) but eat it too (have an open border with the EU where they can trade freely). There’s a tendency for people to believe that the EU are just being stubborn ■■■■■■ about this negotiation, or trying to punish the UK Leavers. Nope. They’re trying to keep the fundamentals of the EU together.

But the ‘give in to us or we’ll leave with no deal!’ threat ain’t gonna fly. It’s basically the UK saying to the EU “here’s a gun, if you don’t shoot yourself then I’ll shoot MYself and if that happens you’ll get bloodstains on your carpet and THEN YOU"LL BE SORRY!!!”

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It’s the old joke about the irish bloke who’s wife doesn’t respect him

The wife comes home one day to find him sitting at the kitchen table, with a gun to his head, and he threatens to pull the trigger.
She breaks down laughing.
He says “don’t laugh ■■■■■, you’re next!”

Going by the first ashes test the poms want out of international cricket too
#crixit

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Here we go here we go here we goooooooo …

You are farked Borrie.

Might be a shorter lived PM than even our most hated turd PM ever in Abbott.

Entertaining couple of Months coming up …

Could go down in history as the Prime Minister who caused the dissolution of the United Kingdom.

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Excellent. Last Days of the English Empire.

We’re just waiting for Scotland to pull the plug on the Poms.

And the North-East Ulster Unionists would agree to being part of a Scotland-Ireland federation inside the EU, too…

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Might not even be Great Britain then.