Interesting you bring up those stats. I was just looking through some from Champion Data & tried to evaluate if there were any trends appearing by comparison to the previous year & even going back to late 2016. I didn’t look at teams specifically (aside from the Premier’s of the past two years to establish said trends) but it’s clear that some identied a trend earlier than others.
For instance, was Richmond’s forwardline structure that revolutionary given the Dogs in the 2016 finals? Boyd & Stringer probably the only genuine taller types surrounded by pressure forwards like Clay Smith, Picken, Dahlhaus etc. I think Richmond evaluated their list, looked at what worked for the Dogs and rolled with what they had, being Jack and a bunch of pressure forwards. Griffiths missed a lot of footy but clearly he was in the plans early days.
Some stats that I found were that only an average of 11 marks were taken inside F50 from round 15 (after the byes) 2016 to the conclusion of 2017. The opposition intercept marks was around 14 per game which results in an average 8 scoring chains. This tells me the vast amount of inside 50 entries hit the deck which brings the pressure players into the equation. Picken & Smith in particular in 2016 had high pressure ratings and their scoring rose as the pressure index did. They recorded a pressure rating of over 200 (league ave of 171) in their forward half in 7 of their 11 matches after round 15 in 2016. Richmond never achieved that index but were frequently above 185 in the second half of last year.
Round one, we bucked the trend with a large amount of inside 50 marks against a team who haven’t given up much in 2017, how much of this was down to Lever? Thats unknown but pressure between the arcs is the key here, bringing down midfield efficiency moving the ball forward. This is where we fall down IMO. We have a tall forward line, apply below average forward and midfield pressure and often leave the opposition with a spare man in defence to allow us a spare at the contest. This may help balance the sheer clearance & contested possession numbers but the pressure index hovers in the low 160’s which is off the pace for AFL average. The result means our ball movement is slowed which reduces forwards efficiency and boosts the likelihood of opposition intercept. It also allows the opposition more space making it more difficult to apply pressure meaning our defence often faces unpressured ball reducing the ability to intercept and start scoring chains from the back with overlap run.
I’m certain our coaching panel is across this but I want to see what they’re willing to change to address it.