I’ve also got a degree in Electrical engineering and I’ve worked in Power Generation for most of my 18 year career. At a rough count, the projects I’ve been involved in total over 200MW of generation capacity on 5 continents . I’ve had different roles over that time but have spent most of the last 9 years as a Technical Lead and / or Project manager. Mainly working on dirty fossil burning generators (Diesel/Gas), sometimes working on landfill / digester gas machines which are better for the environment than flaring the gas would be.
I really enjoy reading this thread, but have very little interest in trying to change people’s minds.
You know what’s really amazing about it? That AGL got a ■■■■ heap for nothing, the government want to buy it or spend zillions keeping it going and then the government will strut around like they’re calling the hard shots and showing how it’s done. That’s the kicker for me. And, we just know that’s how most of the media will try to dress it up. Heck, it will probably gain them popularity.
I know you are incredibly old, and two hurricanes 27 years appart that happened 100 years ago probably seems like a similar precedent and 27 year gap feels like a week, but two cat 4-5’s a week apart is actually a pretty alarming.
The land fill digester machines are interesting, I’m based in Adelaide and have just been introduced to LMS energy and SDA engineering who are very much involved in landfill methane regeneration. Both slightly different how they go about it but interesting none the less.
My industry view on electricity prices, adopted frankly from the likes of AGL/ORG management, that I think is worthwhile sharing:
The electricity prices that we enjoyed over the last decade or so were unsustainably cheap…it was a period of new powergen supply being forced into the network, thanks to the Renewable Energy Targets (wind and some large scale solar build)…at the same time, on the demand side, households were lowering their electricity draw from the grid, by installing small scale solar units, and general energy efficiency improvements from new appliances or better awareness.
Eventually, the low grid prices did what they are supposed to do to the supply side - they caused some powergen closures (typically precipitated by units simply becoming old, and unable to justify sustaining investment)…and not long after, over on the demand side, the population growth finally overwhelmed diminishing household efficiency improvements, and total residential demand bottomed and is growing again.
Now to electricity users, the change in electricity prices has come as a shock, but it is a necessary one as we switch from oversupplied electricity markets (ie. short run marginal cost) to undersupplied (ie. long run marginal cost)…the sudden change causes discomfort and political heat…but my gut feeling is that there should not be another leg up in prices. Having said that, this new level is here to stay. We need to stay at these long run marginal prices to stimulate new powergen build, to satisfy the forecast ongoing population growth.
Only question left is - what gets built? Well renewables proponents claim that this price level is sufficient to build out their powergen plus firming storage. Well they are going to have to demonstrate it now. An economic project should be able to attract the necessary capital.
(PS. As I was writing this, all sorts of complicating side issues popped into my head, like commercial electricity rates/smelters/gas prices/LNG/policy uncertainty, but I think this post is already TLDR)
Benny, we all know you’re easily alarmed but I’m sure you are smart enough to research both Texan and Florida hurricanes. There is a history of them going back to the time of the American revolutionary wars and ocuring regularly. Its like thinking that there is something unusual about tornadoes in Kansas or cyclones in Cairns.
Of course there’s a long history of hurricanes in the US South. Nobody’s disputing that. It’s the increase in frequency of the really severe ones that has everyone worried. Katrina was supposed to be a once in a hundred years storm. Irma was supposed to be a once in 500 years storm. So was Harvey. Harvey is supposed to have caused once in 500000 year floods in some areas(!), and this is the third consecutive year they’ve had once in 500 year floods. There have been more numbers like this.
If we’re seeing multiple 500-year storms in a single year, and 500-year floods year in, year out, then the overwhelming probability is that the baseline of our climate has changed.
And @ALBIE_YEO the most frightening thing about Irma is she picked up speed and velocity whilst she was in the deep ocean, all historical data shows that all th hurricanes that hit thay region gain their speed and power when in the gulf.
How did this happen you ask, or more pertinently how is this possible?
That part of the ocean was warmer than it’s ever been. Hurricanes don’t form on cold water
Ok, I’ll bite. How much warmer was the ocean than its ever been. Again in 1780 20,000 people died in the West Indies . I don’t think it went through the gulf beforehand do you? The point is every hurricane is different. Florida has had 127 hurricanes since 1850 . In 1886 US was hit by 7 hurricanes ,2 major. From 1950 to 1960 the US was hit by 11 hurricanes. In the last 11 years the US has had 2. I do not claim any expertise in hurricane dynamics, I leave it up to the Climate Druids that haunt this thread , though I do have doubts about their theology. Have a nice life Ben and may all your guitars be Fenders.
Date on my source was dated 10 days ago so I do apologise. Irma is interesting . It was rated at Cat.3 when it hit the Keys but only Cat.1 when it hit Miami, barely stronger than a superstorm. The flooding issue is another matter altogether. If people continue to build on marginal coastal swamp land and cover it all up with concrete and asphalt there will always be problems. Look at what happened in the Lockyer valley. Most people have since built on higher land, but you will find as time goes on people will take the risk , buy the cheaper land and it will all happen again. Dams were built as much for flood mitigation as water storage but this is often forgotten. I live in a town that has its main street flooded on average every 20-25 years but I made sure that where I built had not flooded since white settlement.
I have always laughed at these 50 year, 100 year, 500 year events for flooding etc. Melbourne Water put out a new set of rules for our valley in the Marsh and it changed flood levels and “events”. It meant that building approvals are impossible to get or you have to build your new house one 1 metre stumps. And of course, some Insurers refuse to insure or put up premiums by 100%.
The irony was that this happened when we were in our 10 year drought !!!