Delistings and List Regeneration

Football Discussion Trade week Duursma head in
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There are 18 players of 40 on the contracted list due to have some considerations re their 2016 futures soon. An extraordinary ratio.

Of these, there are some exceptional statements at the time of writing.

For example, Dustin has just played his 400 and looks okay. You would expect him, in consultation with the club, to be able to choose his 2016 pathway. Similarly, Joe D and Baguley and a few others are awaiting other issues to clear before the club re appoints them beyond this year.

There are obvious retirements and journeyed positions to vacate as well.

Baguley, Mark - 2015
Bellchambers, Tom - 2015
Browne, Alex - 2015
Carlisle, Jake - 2015
Chapman, Paul - 2015
Dalgleish, Lauchlan - 2015
Daniher, Joe - 2015
Dempsey, Courtenay - 2015
Fantasia, Orazio - 2015
Fletcher, Dustin - 2015
Gwilt, James - 2015
Hams, Will - 2015
Kavanagh, Elliott - 2015
Melksham, Jake - 2015
O’Brien, Nick - 2015
Pears, Tayte - 2015
Stanton, Brent - 2015
Winderlich, Jason - 2015

Rebuild or rekindle, we will handle this well.

Note also that Steinberg has had three terms on the rookie list and Aylett took one for the list early 2015(?).

What/who gives for trade or retirement or movement on the 2015 list.

I’ll play - this is how I’d look at it.

Absolutely staying, no brainer
Daniher

Likely Staying
Baguley, Fantasia, Kavanagh, Stanton

Bags and Stanton stay because they are best 22. Fantasia and Kav if they continue to play like they did against Geelong will have earned new contracts.

Unknowns
Bellchambers, Browne, Carlisle, Dalgleish, Gwilt, Melksham, O’Brien,

Bellchambers will likely stay - I still don’t think he’s 100% fit, and if he gets himself right, he’s probably got 6 pretty solid years left in him. The only caveat I put on him is that if we are offered a good deal for him, we’d be crazy not to take it. Browne has to play senior footy this year,and I don’t think he’s far away. Carlisle will hopefully stay. Dalgleish is a bit like Browne, except he may be further away. Melksham interests me - I’m not sold on him being best 22, but I can see the potential there. O’Brien is another I’m not sure of. Like to see minimum 4 games of AFL of him before we keep him. If he can’t crack the seniors this year, I don’t see why we would give him another contract. Gwilt… would be harsh on him to pick him for a season and then delist him - but he’s a depth player who was given a one year contract, and I think I’d prefer to give Steinberg his spot on the list.

Likely Going
Chapman, Dempsey, Fletcher, Hams, Pears, Winderlich

Hams and Pears would have to turn it around somewhat from here, so I’ll consider them gone. I know they haven’t had a decent crack at it, but I just can’t see them getting another contract. I would hope Pears would do a Hardy and sign with the VFL team. Dempsey is in trouble. If you’re dropped after a 70 point flogging, at the age of 27, in round 11 - things look grim. I think he could turn it around, but he’ll have a bit to do. Fletcher, Winderlich, and Chapman will probably retire.

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Stole the template from brem06

Absolutely staying, no brainer
Daniher and Baguley

Likely Staying
Fantasia, Kavanagh, Stanton, Browne, Dalgleish, Melksham and Hams

Fantasia, Browne, Dalgleish, Hams and Kav deserve the chance to claim a spot for the future. Stanton and Melksham should hopefully move there way backwards to important depth players. (which every club needs)

Unknowns/trade options
Bellchambers, Carlisle, Gwilt and Dempsey

Bellchambers needs to freshen up and get his body right in the twos before we make a decision. Carlisle I hope to god we resign but if not lets hope we get a good draft pick or young (under 23) stud for him. Gwilt and Dempsey are both decent players as depth defenders and i wouldn’t mind signing them for another season or trading them if anyone wants them.

Likely Going
Chapman, Fletcher, Pears, Winderlich, O’Brien

Chapman, Fletcher and Winderlich should all be ushered respectfully into retirement. Pears and O’Brien unfortunately not up to muster.

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Interested why NO’B is so far down the list compared to Hams, Browne or Kav. Latter three have played about 4 good games between them. NO’B hasnt, yet, but better and far more consistent VFL form.

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Wow taking 4 draft picks this year in the ND?! Un essendon like. Must be looking to promote a rookie

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Hardingham - trade.

10. Darren Bewick.

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Interested why NO'B is so far down the list compared to Hams, Browne or Kav. Latter three have played about 4 good games between them. NO'B hasnt, yet, but better and far more consistent VFL form.

He’s down the list for me because he’s been in good VFL form for the last 18 months and hasn’t played a senior game. He seems to be down the bottom of the pecking order, and if he’s the last picked of guys in his age group then he’s presumably on the chopping block.

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One of the most insightful things Hirdy has said in his press conferences is that statistically if you play more than 7 kids under 50 games you lose.

Except for Collingwood on ANZAC Day who had 12 players who had played under 50 games compared to our 5 and they FARKING BEAT US.

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I hear the term rebuild bandied around a lot. Since our poor start to the season I hear many media types saying we overrated the list and topped up for a flag but now need to rebuild. For all of that talk I say bullsh!t. Consider the following:

a) We have an extremely good core group of players 26 and under, all with a great deal of footy left. All of Hurley, Hooker, Carlisle, Daniher, Z Merrett, Zaharakis, Myers, Hibberd and Heppell are an outstanding core group with 6-8 years of top shelf footy left. Where we have been let down is not with the likes of Cooney, Gwilt, Chappy and Fletch, but with the Kavanagh, J Merrett, O’Brien, Melksham, Bellchambers etc have not come on as required. We have another group of Fantasia, Gleeson, Ashby etc all showing signs of coming through and we really need those guys to take the next step ASAP. Laverde and Langford will prove inspired picks IMO, but will likely need another year or two.

b) The draft penalties and the uncertainty of the saga meant we had to take some risks on established players. Gwilt cost nothing in a contract or draft pick sense. Cooney cost us pick 37 but I believe the Dogs are still paying a portion of his salary. Chappy cost us pick 78 and around $280k a year, but the influence these guys will have on the aforementioned developing types cannot be measured accurately. We all knew Cooney’s Brownlow form is not coming back, Chappy won’t win any more Norm Smith medals but their experience, presence and attitudes to preparation has helped our young players and gave the club insurance in the event of the worst case scenario of the saga.

I expect us to lose Chappy, Fletch, Winders to retirement this year and IMO we’ll lose Kavanagh to another club as well as possible FA defections of Dempsey and Bellchambers. It’s important that we not miss with any of the draft selections we have from here and we get the required improvement from at least a handful of the periphery players. I’m certainly not as pessimistic as a lot of people are in regards to the state of our list.

This.

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I don’t feel the need to come on here every second day to reiterate what I’ve said since October last year. Until Jake and/or his family say otherwise, my opinion will not change. I just deadset refuse to read the Carlisle thread now. So much rubbish being sprouted in there, based on those “supporters” views on him… I shouldn’t share any info with them.

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I Think Jake Can become a good forward.
its not fair that he has media “AFL Experts” saying he isnt much good cause he is a defender." he will get that his whole career except for the weeks he kicks 4+

A lot of experts would say that Neitz was a better defender too but the club needed him forward and we need jake forward.

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I don't feel the need to come on here every second day to reiterate what I've said since October last year. Until Jake and/or his family say otherwise, my opinion will not change. I just deadset refuse to read the Carlisle thread now. So much rubbish being sprouted in there, based on those "supporters" views on him... I shouldn't share any info with them.
Very good point.
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To follow up on Mr Sunbury’s point, of the 45 (including rookies) players on our list - 33 are 26 or under.

26: Hooker, Howlett
25: Myers, Bellchambers, Hibberd, Zaharakis, Pears, Hurley
24: Mckernan, Kommer
23: Colyer, Melksham, Ambrose, Carlisle, Aylett, Heppell
22: Browne, Steinberg, J Merrett, Kavanagh, Dalgleish
21: O’Brien, Edwards, Daniher, Ashby
20: Hams, Gleeson
19: Fantasia, Z Merrett, Long, McKenna, Laverde
18: Langford

Of that above group of 26 or unders, I think we have 12 solid (will only miss games if injured) or potentially solid (in the case of Laverde or Langford) senior players who will form the nucleus of the side for the next 5-6 years:

Future Nucleus:
Hooker, Myers, Hibberd, Zaharakis, Hurley, Colyer, Carlisle, Heppell, Daniher, Z Merrett, Laverde, and Langford.

Then I have this group:

Fringe/Depth Players:
Howlett, Bellchambers, Pears, McKernan, Kommer, Melksham, Ambrose, J Merrett, -

All of them have shown that their best is good enough to be a senior player, but haven’t made themselves automatic selections yet. This is the group that we would be thrilled to get 1 or 2 (wishful thinking: 3) to cement into the “Nucleus” group by the end of the season. Merrett, at just 22 - is probably the outlier in this group, given his younger age. He probably has a couple of seasons more than the rest of these guys to nail down his spot - he’s at least 18 months younger than the rest.

Then I have a group of U/23 players who I just don’t know think we’ve seen enough of to decide on yet, but will need to find out about in the next 30 games we play:

The U/23 Brigade
Aylett, Browne, Steinberg, Kavanagh, Dalgleish, O’Brien, Edwards, Ashby, Hams, Gleeson, Fantasia, Long, McKenna

All these guys have played less than 10 games, except Edwards (13), and Gleeson (20). Fantasia, Long and McKenna are all under 20, so there’s no hurry to make decisions on them.

Now, if we go to the other end of the list, there are 12 players over 26. Of those 12 - there are 3 probably retiring at year end:

The Retiring
Fletcher (but who bloody knows for sure???), Chapman (if he doesn’t, I’d delist him anyway), and Licka (straight to the coaches box please)

I have 3 players who I can’t decide on - they’re probably best called:

Older Fringe Players:
Gwilt, Dempsey, Giles

The other 6 over 26 are the core of the nucleus players who will probably be first to retire:

Nucleolus:
Watson (30), Goddard (30), Cooney (29) Stanton (29), Baguley (28!), and Hocking (27)

Summary
We have real issues at the moment, given that I’ve called our 3 ruckmen Fringe Players, however - in about 4 years time, we’re probably also going to have issues with the midfield. Our first choice mids will still be quality with Heppell, Myers, Zaka and Zerrett, but we may well have issues with depth. So, that’s what I’d be targeting in this years draft, and prioritising over the rest of this year. Get games into O’Brien, Kav, Browne, Hams and Aylett, and see if we can take them up to being fringe/depth players. I think it’s probably unlikely they’re going to become first choice midfielders in front of the other guys, but stranger things have happened.

I think we’ll need to trade for an established ruckman (aged between 23 - 26 preferably), drafting a young one will take too long to join the current Nucleus - and I don’t think there are any standouts in the draft for that matter anyway. The Vic Metro guy (Covacevic) is ■■■■■■ huge though - 204 cm and 111 kg. So is Kyle Galloway from NSW/ACT. (206 and 104) Tony Olango could be interesting as well: “He’s a NT 2 metre plus ruck who converted from soccer recently. If he participated in last years combine then he would have finished top 10 at both the standing and running vertical jump tests and finished first in both the 20m sprint and agility test.”

Finally: Has anyone in SA (@aceman) heard any whispers on Reilly O’Brian from the Crows?

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I don't feel the need to come on here every second day to reiterate what I've said since October last year. Until Jake and/or his family say otherwise, my opinion will not change. I just deadset refuse to read the Carlisle thread now. So much rubbish being sprouted in there, based on those "supporters" views on him... I shouldn't share any info with them.

There’s very few on here that have good info and are willing to share it. These people are what makes blitz great. There’s a lot of background noise that can drown out those in the know. Personally I keep an eye out for posters like yourself and greatly value the insight. You don’t need to fight the battle every day, you’ve said your piece and those that pay attention will remember it. I just hope the media driven hysteria and panic doesn’t put you off giving updates in the future.

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I wouldn’t delist pears yet. If Giles, Gwilt and Carlisle goes or gets delisted in the off season our depth in the tall department will be depleted. Keep him for one more year unless we’re planning on drafting or recruiting more talls next year.

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I wouldn't delist pears yet. If Giles, Gwilt and Carlisle goes or gets delisted in the off season our depth in the tall department will be depleted. Keep him for one more year unless we're planning on drafting or recruiting more talls next year.

We must be looking at drafting or recruiting talls though.

136

If Pears doesn’t get a game in the remainder of this year, then he wont be getting a game any other year.

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I don't feel the need to come on here every second day to reiterate what I've said since October last year. Until Jake and/or his family say otherwise, my opinion will not change. I just deadset refuse to read the Carlisle thread now. So much rubbish being sprouted in there, based on those "supporters" views on him... I shouldn't share any info with them.

There’s very few on here that have good info and are willing to share it. These people are what makes blitz great. There’s a lot of background noise that can drown out those in the know. Personally I keep an eye out for posters like yourself and greatly value the insight. You don’t need to fight the battle every day, you’ve said your piece and those that pay attention will remember it. I just hope the media driven hysteria and panic doesn’t put you off giving updates in the future.

Perfectly put.

138
I wouldn't delist pears yet. If Giles, Gwilt and Carlisle goes or gets delisted in the off season our depth in the tall department will be depleted. Keep him for one more year unless we're planning on drafting or recruiting more talls next year.

He’s broken and he’s no good any more.
Most done player on the list.

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Thing is, we hold onto players too long and give too many chances.

In any other club, Pears and Browne would be gone. The club needs to be ruthless in the trade and delisting this offseason and give kids a crack.

Don’t drop NO’B… play him and see what will happen if he doesnt improve by season end, ship him off. Kav has shown glimpses and we need to persist. Give Laverde a crack too. Stop giving one year contracts to players who we are not playing or getting a gig.

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I’d be more inclined to throw Kavanagh in the delisted category considering that he was offered up during last trade period with no interest being reported.