Do we need to rebuild?

Experience tells us that a team usually needs to win finals for about three years before they are premiership contenders. Given that we haven’t managed to win one yet and it doesn’t look like we’re going to be playing one this year, that’d mean that we are looking at 2018 at the earliest to be a genuine contender.

By 2018 we’ll probably be getting fairly limited contributions from guys like Watson, Goddard, Cooney and Stanton as they’ll all be well into their 30s, and I also doubt that we’ll be seeing the best of Hocking at that age given his crash and bash style. This means that we’re going to have to find half a midfield rotation.

We’ve still got a great young spine, though we’re obviously missing a ruckman, and our backline should be relatively intact at that stage. We’ve got to find some quality crumbers and a third forward (though Laverde and The Langford look promising in that role) and we need some enforcers.

Is it time to acknowledge that we missed it with this group? Should we cull hard at seasons end and look to the future or keep aiming at a flag with the current group? Does the supposed weakness of this draft change our tact?

Anyone who reckons Stanton is “the problem”, “indicative of the problem”, “only average” or “shows where we are at” is pretty much a dyed
-in-the-wool ■■■■■■■.
Ditto anyone hitching their wagon to DKP.

He’s a good player - very good. Has been for a decade. We have about 40 worse players on the list right now - same story as the best part of the decade he’s been around.
Nah, problem definitely isn’t Dempsey or Ambrose or Bellcho or Pears, or any of the other guys who are worse than him. it’s the bloke who’ll finish top 5 in the B&F for about the 8th time.

Same logic as replacing a tire because your car’s blowing smoke.

If you’re potting Stanton you may as well pot Watson for being slow and a liability defensively.

We’ve been an average team but a team is more than 2 players. It goes without saying that Watson is a champion, but Stanton also has been so good for this club through one of the worst periods in its history.

Probably deserves a bit more respect.

I love how they think that if Dodoro has been at Essendon for 17 years it must have been the same job.

How long has he been involved in recruitment and/or list management?

Not like it mattered

Sheedy would of just overruled him and drafted somebody else he liked the look of

Okay well this discussion has gone a little off a rails…

I love how they think that if Dodoro has been at Essendon for 17 years it must have been the same job.

How long has he been involved in recruitment and/or list management?

I love how they think that if Dodoro has been at Essendon for 17 years it must have been the same job.

I think the decision around this is the biggest one facing the club, and hugely critical to get right. HAP wrote we're already in a rebuild, as evidenced by the new youth policy. I disagree - I think its writing off 2015, not necessarily rebuilding. Its similar to 2006, we went crap so long that Sheedy tanked for a priority pick right at the end, but he still aimed for finals in 2007. That wasn't a rebuild. And even if we lose 8-9 players this year, its not really a rebuild, its list tinkering.
If you don't classify what we did end of 2006 as a rebuild then I don't know what you do classify as one. We tanked for half the year, ploughed games into young blokes (Laycock Johns Kep Dyson Winders et al), cut a bunch of old blokes, traded one or two out, and took a bunch of picks. How does that differ from a rebuild exactly?

And (if 9 players is tinkering) what would you classify as a rebuild?
10 main list changes?


2006 wasn’t a rebuild for us, just like 2005 wasn’t for Collingwood. We had a terrible year injury wise, and although I totally agree we tanked at the end, I’ve never seen a good argument that we tanked earlier. I do not for a moment believe Sheedy would have deliberately risked having the longest losing run at EFC on his record, and we came one game from doing that. I think like Collingwood 2005 we were plagued with injuries, which forced us to play youngsters. And the post-season reflected that. You say we hit the draft hard and traded one-two out, but the only pro-active thing we did was trade Solomon. We only had 6 picks + 1 PSD, and that was used on Mal Michael. Another pick was used on a mature player (Davey). That isn’t a rebuild, 7 players is about standard for an AFL club. I’m not even sure if any older players were even cut, Peverill, JJ, MJ, Lucas, Lloyd, all stayed. I think we delisted/traded Solomon, Lucy, Henneman, Cartledge, Rioli, Tim O’Keefe and Ben Jolley - not exactly the old guard.

The reason I don’t think 9 changes for us is more than tinkering is because we’ve been topping up the last few years, we’ve built a backlog of older players which needs to clear. E.g. last year we only put 4 players on the list (including rookies) who were under 25. When you can cut 9 odd players who all have 4-5 seasons under their belt and yet cut nobody who has played regularly in your seniors, that means you (most likely) still have a lot of pruning to do. I’m also assuming we would promote 2-3 rookies, so the number of direct draft picks is reduced.

Is this even a question?

Of course we need a rebuild but I would suggest it is more a cosmetic rebuild rather than a deep cull. The core is there, just need to fix the top 12.

We missed it , at about time time in 2013 when the AFL screwed us over, suspending Hird, dropping us out of finals and taking draft picks. We were second on the ladder and headed for top four into finals.

Easy to say, cut hard, but you need to find replacements and still win games, so decisions may need to be tough, but they must be considered ones.

the top 12?

I think a lot of this has been over-stated. Unfortunately we’ve not been operating on a level playing field, and that makes it hard to make an accurate assessment of the list. It certainly needs attention, but rebuild is too drastic a term for it. We have a core group of players who should be long term performers for the club. We have some players just about past their prime who will be gone at the end of the year, and another set beneath them still good, but aging. I think we need to address particular deficiencies in the team, but a lot depends on how the young players on the list blossom. In that regard the potential and development of the likes of Langford, Laverde, Edwards, plus Fantasia, Ashby, etc, and the wildcard McKenna, is encouraging. Pick up another couple of potential A-graders and the ‘rebuild’ might be quicker than people suppose.

We need a ruckman, three or four quality mid-fielders and a small forward. Otherwise, we are ok. Hopefully we can pick up one of those mid-fielders in this year’s draft as we should have a very early pick.

We missed it , at about time time in 2013 when the AFL screwed us over, suspending Hird, dropping us out of finals and taking draft picks. We were second on the ladder and headed for top four into finals.

Easy to say, cut hard, but you need to find replacements and still win games, so decisions may need to be tough, but they must be considered ones.

I suggest there will also have to be some tough trading decisions - if we’re going to rebuild we probably need to move one or two of our 25+ y.o. players onto other clubs and bring some quality youth in. It hurt St Kilda to move Goddard and Dal Santo on to other clubs but I don’t think they regret it now.

If Carlisle leaves, Yes.

Spine is young and promising. Only Hooker is over 25 I think. Now is the time to be drafting young mids to replace Watson Stanton Goddard etc. Complete rebuild? No. Renovate? Yep.

…?

That particular horse has not only bolted, it’s in a taxi to the airport, with a one way flight to Bolivia already booked. There’s no closing that particular barn door.

Guys like NOB and Kav and Laverde haven’t all muscled their way into the best side within the same week. It also wasn’t a co-incidence that Fletch Watson Chapman Bellcho Carlisle all got ruled out within about 2 weeks.
We’re rebuilding.
Glad you’re with us.

Zerrett (19), Carlisle (23), Hooker (26), Daniher (21), Heppell (23), Colyer (24) and Hurls (25) are all star quality who we can build a team around.

Developing players like Edwards, Langford, Laverde and Gleeson will be a part of it.

Others like Fantasia, Jerrett, Hamms, Dalgliesh and maybe a couple of other young players are worth putting time into.

Apart from that you’d keep a handful of other experience players like Myers (26), Hocking (27), Hibbo (25), Watson, Goddard, Zaka, Stants and Baggs for transition and leadership but the rest are fair game to be culled as soon as we find/develop younger upgrades.

There are seriously some players who’ve had time and wouldn’t be missed if they were moved on for a younger kid. We should look to turnover more that usual IMO.

....?

That particular horse has not only bolted, it’s in a taxi to the airport, with a one way flight to Bolivia already booked. There’s no closing that particular barn door.

Guys like NOB and Kav and Laverde haven’t all muscled their way into the best side within the same week. It also wasn’t a co-incidence that Fletch Watson Chapman Bellcho Carlisle all got ruled out within about 2 weeks.
We’re rebuilding.
Glad you’re with us.

I’ll agree with you at year end when we cull the usual suspects. When the coaching staff make the hard decisions then, I’ll believe you.

No