Draft Strategy

browne24 · October 31, 2016, 7:28am

Jackets should play money ball after pick 30!
It would be interesting to work out the average draft pick number where the tipping point occurred when the more known quantities of state league players who are either mature players or at least have exposed form playing against mature bodies, outweighed the potential of TAC players who may or may not perform in the senior competition.

For EFC players who were recruited since 2009 there have been 24 TAC draft selections vs 24 draft selections coming from players who have been playing in State or other major senior competitions.

Of those recruited since 2009 there are remaining on an AFL list currently:

11 out of 24 of the TAC remain

14 out of 24 of the State League recruits remain.

I have not included non drafted players or players drafted directly from an AFL club, this includes players like Goddard, Leuey, Bird, McKernan, Kelly and Dea.

TAC only recruits:

Parish
Morgan
Langford
Laverde
Zerrett
Daniher
Gleeson
Jerrett
Heppell
Melksham
Carlisle

State League Recruits:

Francis
Redman
Brown
Hartley
Walla
Long
Fantasia
Ambrose
Baguley
Hibberd
Jenkins
Colyer
Howlett
Crameri

State League Recruits (SLR) - ratio of players recruited 2009 - 2015 players still playing AFL in 2016

SLR 2015
Francis - SANFL - pick 6
Redman - SANFL - pick 30
Brown - VFL - pick 54
Hartley - VFL - pick 68
Walla - rookie pick 22

2015 - players remaining
SLR 5 out of 5 still playing
TAC recruits: 2 out of 5 still playing. (Parish and Morgan remain, Eades? Nyoun, Wallis delisted).

SLR 2014
Long - NTFL / VFL - F/S rookie

2014 - players remaining
SLR 1/1
TAC 2/2 (Langford, Laverde)

SLR 2013
Fantasia - SANFL - pick 55
Thurlow - NEAFL - rookie pick 9
Ambrose - VAFA - rookie pick 26

2013 - players remaining
SLR 2/3
TAC 1/1 (Zerrett)

SLR 2012
Van Unen - VFL - pick 51
Kommer - WAFL - pick 73

2012 - players remaining
SLR 0/2
TAC 2/4 (Daniher, Gleeson)

SLR 2011

Dell’Ollio - WAFL - rookie pick 29
Baguley - VFL - rookie pick 47
Lee - WAFL - rookie pick 78

2011 - players remaining
SLR 1/3
TAC 1/5 (Jerrett)

SLR 2010
Davis - SANFL - pick 64
Hibberd - VFL - PSD pick 4
Jenkins - CMFL - rookie pick 12
Webster - BDFL - rookie pick 61 (NSW scholarship promotion)

2010 - players remaining
SLR 2/4
TAC 1/4 (Heppell)

SLR 2009
Colyer - WAFL - pick 26
Hardingham - WAFL - PSD pick 7
Silverlock (missed Barlow) - SANFL - rookie pick 14
Howlett - WAFL - rookie pick 30
Crameri - VFL - rookie pick 43
Marigliani - VFL - rookie pick 55

2009 - players remaining
SLR 3/6
TAC 2/3 (Melksham, Carlisle)

Jackets strike rate:

SLR vs TAC 2009 to 2015 drafts

SLR 14/24
TAC 11/24

Somewhere around pick 40 we should start concentrating on players with some exposed senior league experience. Gleeson (pick 53) is the only TAC only player since 2009 still on our list with a pick higher than 31 (Jackson Merrett) and the rest were in the 20’s or less.

Francis, Redman and Colyer were the only State League Recruits taken at less than pick 31, and most were way over that. You can conclude that after pick 30 it would be reasonable to start looking in the direction of State leagues unless you are sure the TAC pool is deep.

If it helps here are the results from the WA state combine. The beep test was done 30mins after the 30m repeat sprints so those results are probably lower than what they should be.

WA Football CommissionWAFC
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DEPPRO Draft Watch: State Combine Results
Wednesday, October 19, 2016 - 2:45 PM

A group of 17 WAFL players were put through their paces under the watchful eye of AFL recruiters at the WA State AFL Draft Combine on Sunday, October 16.

Held at Herb Graham Recreation Centre in Mirrabooka, the Combine included body composition, speed, agility and power tests consisting of the running and standing vertical jump, beep test, 20m sprint, agility test and repeat 30m sprints.

East Perth’s Tarir Bayok recorded one of the best results of the day with a 2.79 second 20m sprint, the fastest recorded at all AFL Draft Combines around Australia this year and only 0.01 seconds behind the current AFL record.

Bayok also recorded the second best result at the WA State Combine in the standing vertical jump with a leap of 73cm behind an impressive 80cm result from Claremont’s Bailey Banfield.

Banfield also recorded the highest running vertical jump (right leg) with 88cm, while Subiaco’s Liam Ryan topped the results jumping of his left leg with a high-flying 90cm.

East Perth player Stan Wright was the only player to break 8 seconds in the Agility Test with a 7.99 and was followed closely by Peel Thunder’s Calvin Thorne with 8.17, Bayok 8.24 and Claremont’s Keanu Shandley 8.26.

Claremont’s Jake Stergiou impressed in the repeat sprints as the only player to run faster than 24 seconds with a 23.68. The next best were Bayok 24.53 and Banfield 24.88.

Four players reached level 13 in the beep test, with Claremont’s Darcy Cameron and West Perth’s Luke Meadows exiting on 13.1 and Peel Thunder player Noah Hura and Claremont’s Keanu Shandley reaching 13.2.

Name Surname DOB HT WT Club

Darcy Cameron 18.07.1995 204 101 Claremont

Jeremy Goddard 27.3.1998 202 101 Claremont

Keanu Shandley 10.09.1998 181 70 Claremont

Bailey Banfield 26.2.1998 188 89 Claremont

Jake Stergiou 11.1.1998 182 73 Claremont

Luke Strnadica 1.1.1998 199 93 East Fremantle

Stan Wright 18.3.1998 175 79 East Perth

Tarir Bayok 8.3.1998 174 71 East Perth

Calvin Thorne 16.02.1998 175 62 Peel Thunder

Noah Hura 31.1.1998 187 78 Peel Thunder

Matt Taylor 27.03.1997 187 81 Perth

Jimmy Miller 25.7.1997 195 90 South Fremantle

Chad Pearson 14.2.1998 191 82 South Fremantle

Tyson Pickett 20.12.1997 182 79 South Fremantle

Liam Ryan 02.10.1996 184 76 Subiaco

Brad Fullgrabe 1.4.1998 194 97 Swan Districts

Luke Meadows 16.11.1994 185 88 West Perth

Results Summary

Running Vertical Jump
(Right Leg)
Name Score
Bailey Banfield 88
Jimmy Miller 80
Liam Ryan 78
Brad Fullgrabe 77
Keanu Shandley 77
Luke Meadows 76
Tarir Bayok 72
Tyson Pickett 72
Matt Taylor 71
Jeremy Goddard 70
Jake Stergiou 70
Darcy Cameron 69
Luke Strnadica 69
Calvin Thorne 67
Stan Wright 66
Chad Pearson 59
Noah Hura 57

Running Vertical Jump
(Left Leg)
Name Score
Liam Ryan 90
Matt Taylor 85
Bailey Banfield 84
Tarir Bayok 84
Calvin Thorne 83
Brad Fullgrabe 82
Jake Stergiou 82
Tyson Pickett 82
Luke Meadows 79
Keanu Shandley 78
Jeremy Goddard 75
Luke Strnadica 75
Darcy Cameron 74
Noah Hura 73
Chad Pearson 69
Stan Wright 68
Jimmy Miller 65

Vertical Jump
Name Score
Bailey Banfield 80
Tarir Bayok 73
Liam Ryan 71
Brad Fullgrabe 70
Jeremy Goddard 70
Luke Strnadica 68
Keanu Shandley 67
Matt Taylor 66
Luke Meadows 63
Stan Wright 63
Jake Stergiou 62
Calvin Thorne 62
Jimmy Miller 61
Darcy Cameron 57
Noah Hura 57
Chad Pearson 54

Repeat Sprints (30m x 6)
Name Total Time
Jake Stergiou 23.68
Tarir Bayok 24.53
Bailey Banfield 24.88
Matt Taylor 24.97
Tyson Pickett 25.23
Liam Ryan 25.26
Brad Fullgrabe 25.39
Jeremy Goddard 25.40
Calvin Thorne 25.56
Luke Meadows 25.63
Noah Hura 25.78
Luke Strnadica 25.83
Keanu Shandley 25.87
Chad Pearson 26.24
Jimmy Miller 26.60
Darcy Cameron 27.03

20 metre Sprint
Name Time
Tarir Bayok 2.79
Calvin Thorne 2.81
Jake Stergiou 2.83
Noah Hura 2.94
Liam Ryan 2.92
Bailey Banfield 2.96
Matt Taylor 2.96
Tyson Pickett 2.98
Keanu Shandley 3.00
Brad Fullgrabe 3.01
Luke Meadows 3.01
Jeremy Goddard 3.02
Jimmy Miller 3.04
Stan Wright 3.05
Chad Pearson 3.06
Luke Strnadica 3.07
Darcy Cameron 3.39

Agility
Name Score
Stan Wright 7.99
Calvin Thorne 8.17
Tarir Bayok 8.24
Keanu Shandley 8.26
Chad Pearson 8.28
Jake Stergiou 8.28
Bailey Banfield 8.30
Brad Fullgrabe 8.34
Tyson Pickett 8.34
Matt Taylor 8.38
Liam Ryan 8.39
Jeremy Goddard 8.42
Luke Meadows 8.43
Noah Hura 8.57
Jimmy Miller 8.66
Darcy Cameron 8.93
Luke Strnadica 9.00

Beep Test
Name Level
Keanu Shandley 13.2
Darcy Cameron 13.1
Luke Meadows 13.1
Matt Taylor 12.10
Bailey Banfield 12.9
Stan Wright 12.6
Tarir Bayok 12.4
Tyson Pickett 12.1
Jeremy Goddard 11.7
Brad Fullgrabe 11.4
Chad Pearson 11.2
Luke Strnadica 10.11
Jimmy Miller 10.4
Liam Ryan 10.1
Calvin Thorne 10.1
Jake Stergiou **

BOMBERS4LIFE2 · October 31, 2016, 9:47am

We should take Ben Long with 41 to annoy the Bulldogs who would be waiting to take him with pick 50.

Alan_Noonan_10 · October 31, 2016, 10:42am

Liam Ryan has been talked up from the WAFL but poor on agility and beep test.

Houli_Dooley · October 31, 2016, 10:49am

Gee for semi elite sportsmen you think their beep test scores would be better than that, generally speaking. My year 8 self would have come equal second among that group been downhill ever since

frosty · October 31, 2016, 11:22am

Decent results for Bailey Banfield

Played WAFL seniors at end of the season (2 games @19ppg), off the back of 23ppg in reserves, 25ppg in colts.

And sort of looks like Langford.

11kgm · October 31, 2016, 11:35am

Gee for semi elite sportsmen you think their beep test scores would be better than that, generally speaking. My year 8 self would have come equal second among that group *been downhill ever since*

I peaked then i got 11 now can even get 6

gutteral · October 31, 2016, 1:00pm

Taite Fkn Silverlock. Still dunno how he didnt make it. He looked like he was going to be alright. Maybe a bit too small

SCarey1 · October 31, 2016, 4:48pm

Long version updated to include all the post Sheedy era:

Should Jackets play money ball after pick 30?

I thought it would be interesting to work out the average draft pick number where the tipping point occurred when the more known quantities of state league players who are either mature players or at least have exposed form playing against mature bodies, outweighed the potential of TAC players who may or may not perform in the senior competition.

For EFC players who were recruited since 2009 there have been 24 TAC draft selections vs 24 draft selections coming from players who have been playing in State or other major senior competitions.

Of those recruited since 2007 there are remaining on an AFL list currently:

13 out of 31 of the TAC remain

17 out of 34 of the State League recruits remain.

I have not included non drafted players or players drafted directly from an AFL club, this includes players like Goddard, Leuey, Bird and McKernan ( or Kelly and Dea).

TAC only recruits:

Parish
Morgan
Langford
Laverde
Zerrett
Daniher
Gleeson
Jerrett
Heppell
Melksham
Carlisle
Hurley
Zaka

State League Recruits:

Francis
Redman
Brown
Hartley
Walla
Long
Fantasia
Ambrose
Baguley
Hibberd
Jenkins
Colyer
Howlett
Crameri
Myers
Hooker
Bellchambers

State League Recruits (SLR) - ratio of players recruited 2009 - 2015 players still playing AFL in 2016

SLR 2015
Francis - SANFL - pick 6
Redman - SANFL - pick 30
Brown - VFL - pick 54
Hartley - VFL - pick 68
Walla - rookie pick 22

2015 - players remaining
SLR 5 out of 5 still playing
TAC recruits: 2 out of 5 still playing. (Parish and Morgan remain, Eades? Nyoun, Wallis delisted).

SLR 2014
Long - NTFL / VFL - F/S rookie

2014 - players remaining
SLR 1/1
TAC 2/2 (Langford, Laverde)

SLR 2013
Fantasia - SANFL - pick 55
Thurlow - NEAFL - rookie pick 9
Ambrose - VAFA - rookie pick 26

2013 - players remaining
SLR 2/3
TAC 1/1 (Zerrett)

SLR 2012
Van Unen - VFL - pick 51
Kommer - WAFL - pick 73

2012 - players remaining
SLR 0/2
TAC 2/4 (Daniher, Gleeson)

SLR 2011

Dell’Ollio - WAFL - rookie pick 29
Baguley - VFL - rookie pick 47
Lee - WAFL - rookie pick 78

2011 - players remaining
SLR 1/3
TAC 1/5 (Jerrett)

SLR 2010
Davis - SANFL - pick 64
Hibberd - VFL - PSD pick 4
Jenkins - CMFL - rookie pick 12
Webster - BDFL - rookie pick 61 (NSW scholarship promotion)

2010 - players remaining
SLR 2/4
TAC 1/4 (Heppell)

SLR 2009
Colyer - WAFL - pick 26
Hardingham - WAFL - PSD pick 7
Silverlock (missed Barlow) - SANFL - rookie pick 14
Howlett - WAFL - rookie pick 30
Crameri - VFL - rookie pick 43
Marigliani - VFL - rookie pick 55

2009 - players remaining
SLR 3/6
TAC 2/3 (Melksham, Carlisle)

SLR 2008
Tyson Slattery - SANFL - Pick 64
Skipworth - VFL - PSD 3
Christian Bock - SANFL - rookie pick 36

2008 - players remaining
SLR 0/3
TAC 2/6 (Hurley, Zaka)

2007
SLR 3/7 (Myers WAFL pick 6, Hooker WAFL pick 54, Bellchambers NTFL (Tas) PSD 8) (Departures included Pears pick 23 WAFL).
TAC 0/1 (Darcy Daniher - departure)

Clearly around pick 30 we should start concentrating on players with some exposed senior league experience. Gleeson (pick 53) and Jackson Merrett (pick 31) are the only TAC listed recruits since 2007 still on an AFL list taken with an EFC pick higher than 30.

Francis, Colyer and Myers were the only State League Recruits taken at a pick less than 30, and most were way over that. You can conclude that after pick 30 it would be reasonable to start looking in the direction of State leagues unless you are sure the TAC pool is deep. There will be exceptions in either direction.

anon71769209 · November 1, 2016, 12:36am

Taite Fkn Silverlock. Still dunno how he didnt make it. He looked like he was going to be alright. Maybe a bit too small

Wasn’t he always injured?

What sort of player was he?

nickers · November 1, 2016, 12:42am

Taite Fkn Silverlock. Still dunno how he didnt make it. He looked like he was going to be alright. Maybe a bit too small

Wasn’t he always injured?

What sort of player was he?

I liked him - played a bit like Reimers but without the attitude. Clean with the ball, nice kick, dangerous around goals and decent pace. Perhaps on the smaller side but it didn’t seem to worry him much. Suffered a broken leg at one point and never really got a chance after that.

Alan_Noonan_10 · November 1, 2016, 2:42am

I thought Silverlock was near the edge of senior selection when he broke his fibula.

Just didn’t recover for his second season.

Luke Davis was much the same. Really developing as a tagger, then got hurt and was never in contention after that.

Heppelltitis · November 1, 2016, 11:37am

Long version updated to include all the post Sheedy era:
Should Jackets play money ball after pick 30?

I thought it would be interesting to work out the average draft pick number where the tipping point occurred when the more known quantities of state league players who are either mature players or at least have exposed form playing against mature bodies, outweighed the potential of TAC players who may or may not perform in the senior competition.

For EFC players who were recruited since 2009 there have been 24 TAC draft selections vs 24 draft selections coming from players who have been playing in State or other major senior competitions.

Of those recruited since 2007 there are remaining on an AFL list currently:

13 out of 31 of the TAC remain

17 out of 34 of the State League recruits remain.

I have not included non drafted players or players drafted directly from an AFL club, this includes players like Goddard, Leuey, Bird and McKernan ( or Kelly and Dea).

TAC only recruits:

Parish
Morgan
Langford
Laverde
Zerrett
Daniher
Gleeson
Jerrett
Heppell
Melksham
Carlisle
Hurley
Zaka

State League Recruits:

Francis
Redman
Brown
Hartley
Walla
Long
Fantasia
Ambrose
Baguley
Hibberd
Jenkins
Colyer
Howlett
Crameri
Myers
Hooker
Bellchambers

State League Recruits (SLR) - ratio of players recruited 2009 - 2015 players still playing AFL in 2016

SLR 2015
Francis - SANFL - pick 6
Redman - SANFL - pick 30
Brown - VFL - pick 54
Hartley - VFL - pick 68
Walla - rookie pick 22

2015 - players remaining
SLR 5 out of 5 still playing
TAC recruits: 2 out of 5 still playing. (Parish and Morgan remain, Eades? Nyoun, Wallis delisted).

SLR 2014
Long - NTFL / VFL - F/S rookie

2014 - players remaining
SLR 1/1
TAC 2/2 (Langford, Laverde)

SLR 2013
Fantasia - SANFL - pick 55
Thurlow - NEAFL - rookie pick 9
Ambrose - VAFA - rookie pick 26

2013 - players remaining
SLR 2/3
TAC 1/1 (Zerrett)

SLR 2012
Van Unen - VFL - pick 51
Kommer - WAFL - pick 73

2012 - players remaining
SLR 0/2
TAC 2/4 (Daniher, Gleeson)

SLR 2011

Dell’Ollio - WAFL - rookie pick 29
Baguley - VFL - rookie pick 47
Lee - WAFL - rookie pick 78

2011 - players remaining
SLR 1/3
TAC 1/5 (Jerrett)

SLR 2010
Davis - SANFL - pick 64
Hibberd - VFL - PSD pick 4
Jenkins - CMFL - rookie pick 12
Webster - BDFL - rookie pick 61 (NSW scholarship promotion)

2010 - players remaining
SLR 2/4
TAC 1/4 (Heppell)

SLR 2009
Colyer - WAFL - pick 26
Hardingham - WAFL - PSD pick 7
Silverlock (missed Barlow) - SANFL - rookie pick 14
Howlett - WAFL - rookie pick 30
Crameri - VFL - rookie pick 43
Marigliani - VFL - rookie pick 55

2009 - players remaining
SLR 3/6
TAC 2/3 (Melksham, Carlisle)

SLR 2008
Tyson Slattery - SANFL - Pick 64
Skipworth - VFL - PSD 3
Christian Bock - SANFL - rookie pick 36

2008 - players remaining
SLR 0/3
TAC 2/6 (Hurley, Zaka)

2007
SLR 3/7 (Myers WAFL pick 6, Hooker WAFL pick 54, Bellchambers NTFL (Tas) PSD 8) (Departures included Pears pick 23 WAFL).
TAC 0/1 (Darcy Daniher - departure)

Clearly around pick 30 we should start concentrating on players with some exposed senior league experience. Gleeson (pick 53) and Jackson Merrett (pick 31) are the only TAC listed recruits since 2007 still on an AFL list taken with an EFC pick higher than 30.

Francis, Colyer and Myers were the only State League Recruits taken at a pick less than 30, and most were way over that. You can conclude that after pick 30 it would be reasonable to start looking in the direction of State leagues unless you are sure the TAC pool is deep. There will be exceptions in either direction.

This makes no sense. At all.
u18s are u18s. Doesn’t matter if they’re from vic or sa, wa, nt, etc. Only matters if they can play.
You should be comparing u18s with mature agers.

SCarey1 · November 1, 2016, 2:53pm

Long version updated to include all the post Sheedy era:
Should Jackets play money ball after pick 30?

This makes no sense. At all. u18s are u18s. Doesn't matter if they're from vic or sa, wa, nt, etc. Only matters if they can play. You should be comparing u18s with mature agers.

Thanks @Heppelltitis , you make me realise how I have been unclear.

I wasn’t making an issue of what state the players come from, just indicating that they played in a senior competition. An obvious error I made is that I was referring just to TAC Cup when I should have been just indicating they haven’t played senior football. I should also have included the Australian U 18 championships not just TAC. I didn’t mean to make it specific to Victoria.

I was just comparing whether they had only played junior football vs having played in a senior competition. And while having only played junior football is fine for picking stand out talents (ie: earlier draft picks), it is an impediment for picking players who don’t stand out as much (ie: later draft picks).

If they have proved they can cut it when playing with adults, this is a better predictor of being able to play AFL. Once you go over pick 30, or to be tidy lets say over pick 31, which brings Jackson Merrett and Mason Redman into the top half of the draft picks still on our list (ie: 1 to 31).

You do have a point though, in that the majority of players who had played senior football before being drafted were over 18 when recruited.

The only players who:

Are still on an AFL list
Were 18 YO at the time of recruitment by EFC (post 2007 season - ie post Sheedy)
Were taken at over pick 31 are:
Gleeson pick 53 - had not played senior football
Jake Long - Father son Rookie pick - had played senior football
Fantasia - pick 55 - had played senior football
Bellchambers - PSD pick 8 - had played senior football

So while there is an improved correlation with senior football experience 18YO succeeding (staying on the list) = 3 out of the 4 - it is much greater for players over 19 when recruited.

The players who:

Are still on an AFL list
Were over 18 YO at the time of recruitment by EFC (post 2007 season - ie post Sheedy)
Had played senior football
Taken at over pick 31, were:

Brown

Hartley

Walla

Ambrose

Baguley

Hibberd

Jenkins

Howlett

Crameri

Hooker

So in summary out of 65 players drafted by EFC since 2007:

There are 30 still on an AFL list
Just under half of those players (14 players) were drafted at a pick higher than 31
Only one of those players, Martin Gleeson (pick 53), had no senior football experience.
Only 3 other post pick 31 players were still 18 when selected (Fantasia, Long and Bellchambers)
So, 10 of the 15 post pick 31 players were 19 YO or over when drafted
One third (10) of all the EFC players drafted since 2007 who are still on an AFL list were not from the main draft (ie: were from the Rookie or PSD)
All 14 players who were drafted at pick 54 or later had played senior football
No player without senior football experience drafted after pick 53 is still on our list

samwoods · November 1, 2016, 10:32pm

So SCarey, I hear you saying we should draft Willie Rioli and Ben Long after pick 31.

Bomber_Billy · November 1, 2016, 11:16pm

In terms of list balance what do we need to draft? Even though we finished as wooden spooners I think our list is in good shape. Over the next 2-3 years we will only lose Watson, Kelly and Stanton (edit - and Goddard) to retirement. And we’ve just lost Dempsey, a developing ruckman and a series of second-string fringe midfielders/flankers. I’m assuming we will sign Green as DFA and we will take McCluggage as best available.

So I think everyone will agree that as long as we draft in another ruck prospect and a few midfielders/back flank options (preferably inside midfielders and versatile defenders with speed) we will make this offseason a success. This is a great position to be in because we don’t have to reach at any picks to fill a hole e.g. Freo and Carlton reaching for talls. So going best available at all picks should set us up pretty well. We will most likely have a pick earmarked for another ruckman but you would say that will most likely be a late ND/rookie pick.

An ideal situation would be:

Pick 1: McLuggage - best available; what a luxury to add another super smart, highly skilled well-rounded midfielder to slot alongside Zerrett, Heppell and Parish. Sick of years past where our midfield was so one dimensional. With Hugh we now have a solid core who can win a lot it inside and out, but most importantly make really good decisions and then execute with brilliant disposal.

Pick 20, 29, 41: best available; which at these picks, is generally in line with our current (but only slight) needs. Easy to find inside midfielders and speedy versatile flankers at these picks. Because our list is so balanced at the moment we can afford to choose a tall kpp/ruckman if one slips. e.g. Tim English @ 20, Todd Marshall @ 20, 29,41. You can laugh at this examples but it happens all the time. You wouldn’t mind picking a kpp if they’re too good to pass. I remember when we picked Carlisle at 23-ish one year we had already heaps of tall options and probably needed more midfield prospects but I’m sure people don’t regret that decision.

theDJR · November 1, 2016, 11:22pm

Without checking more thoroughly, I think it’s pretty safe to say Goddard isn’t going past another 2-3 years.

LucasLefty · November 1, 2016, 11:39pm

Without checking more thoroughly, I think it's pretty safe to say Goddard isn't going past another 2-3 years.

Perhaps Baguley too. An area of interest for me has been growing the midfield stocks with Hocking, Howlett and Bird also getting to that stage.

samwoods · November 1, 2016, 11:45pm

In terms of list balance what do we need to draft? Even though we finished as wooden spooners I think our list is in good shape. Over the next 2-3 years we will only lose Watson, Kelly and Stanton to retirement. And we've just lost Dempsey, a developing ruckman and a series of second-string fringe midfielders/flankers. I'm assuming we will sign Green as DFA and we will take McCluggage as best available.
So I think everyone will agree that as long as we draft in another ruck prospect and a few midfielders/back flank options (preferably inside midfielders and versatile defenders with speed) we will make this offseason a success. This is a great position to be in because we don’t have to reach at any picks to fill a hole e.g. Freo and Carlton reaching for talls. So going best available at all picks should set us up pretty well. We will most likely have a pick earmarked for another ruckman but you would say that will most likely be a late ND/rookie pick.

An ideal situation would be:

Pick 1: McLuggage - best available; what a luxury to add another super smart, highly skilled well-rounded midfielder to slot alongside Zerrett, Heppell and Parish. Sick of years past where our midfield was so one dimensional. With Hugh we now have a solid core who can win a lot it inside and out, but most importantly make really good decisions and then execute with brilliant disposal.

Pick 20, 29, 41: best available; which at these picks, is generally in line with our current (but only slight) needs. Easy to find inside midfielders and speedy versatile flankers at these picks. Because our list is so balanced at the moment we can afford to choose a tall kpp/ruckman if one slips. e.g. Tim English @ 20, Todd Marshall @ 20, 29,41. You can laugh at this examples but it happens all the time. You wouldn’t mind picking a kpp if they’re too good to pass. I remember when we picked Carlisle at 23-ish one year we had already heaps of tall options and probably needed more midfield prospects but I’m sure people don’t regret that decision.

In my opinion you’ve under-estimated our pending retirements. Over the next 2-3 years I expect we will see Goddard, Baguley, Hocking and Howlett retire as well as those you list (Watson / Kelly / Stanton).

Francis is a fair chance at replacing Goddard in the utility role.

Watson, Hocking and Howlett as inside mids are more difficult. Bird will be getting on by then as well. We must find some big bodies for our midfield going forward. It is one of the reasons I think Langford, for all his forward skills, is being given so much midfield time. Still, we need some more coming through. A priority in my view, and why I’m a bit surprised Brodie isn’t the obvious #1 draft pick.

Kelly has a number of suitors for his role. Not that any of them are great options yet, but all are at least serviceable and some have good upside.

Stanton has a bunch of suitors for his role as well. Having stated that, I’m not sure we’ve found one that can play a game and not be tagged out of it. Still, not our biggest concern as I think we have plenty of potential wingman. And truth be told, Stants might not keep his spot as a starting wingman this year indicating that we already have him reasonably covered.

Baguley at this stage is irreplaceable. We’ve got nothing. There is a certain individual with whom we are all very familiar who I desperately hope ends up on our list soon, as he is a fair chance of being decent at that role. A priority in my opinion, but can be filled pretty reliably from the mature age pool of players.

Other than that, I agree with you, just get more talent onto the list. We do have room on the list for one more tall and one more ruckman. But if we get them this year or next or the one after, I don’t think it matters much.

Albert_Thurgood · November 1, 2016, 11:46pm

Long version updated to include all the post Sheedy era:
Should Jackets play money ball after pick 30?

This makes no sense. At all. u18s are u18s. Doesn't matter if they're from vic or sa, wa, nt, etc. Only matters if they can play. You should be comparing u18s with mature agers.

Thanks @Heppelltitis , you make me realise how I have been unclear.

I wasn’t making an issue of what state the players come from, just indicating that they played in a senior competition. An obvious error I made is that I was referring just to TAC Cup when I should have been just indicating they haven’t played senior football. I should also have included the Australian U 18 championships not just TAC. I didn’t mean to make it specific to Victoria.

I was just comparing whether they had only played junior football vs having played in a senior competition. And while having only played junior football is fine for picking stand out talents (ie: earlier draft picks), it is an impediment for picking players who don’t stand out as much (ie: later draft picks).

If they have proved they can cut it when playing with adults, this is a better predictor of being able to play AFL. Once you go over pick 30, or to be tidy lets say over pick 31, which brings Jackson Merrett and Mason Redman into the top half of the draft picks still on our list (ie: 1 to 31).

You do have a point though, in that the majority of players who had played senior football before being drafted were over 18 when recruited.

The only players who:

Are still on an AFL list

Were 18 YO at the time of recruitment by EFC (post 2007 season - ie post Sheedy)

Were taken at over pick 31 are:

Gleeson pick 53 - had not played senior football

Jake Long - Father son Rookie pick - had played senior football

Fantasia - pick 55 - had played senior football

Bellchambers - PSD pick 8 - had played senior football

So while there is an improved correlation with senior football experience 18YO succeeding (staying on the list) = 3 out of the 4 - it is much greater for players over 19 when recruited.

The players who:

Are still on an AFL list

Were over 18 YO at the time of recruitment by EFC (post 2007 season - ie post Sheedy)

Had played senior football

Taken at over pick 31, were:

Brown

Hartley

Walla

Ambrose

Baguley

Hibberd

Jenkins

Howlett

Crameri

Hooker
So in summary out of 65 players drafted by EFC since 2007:

There are 30 still on an AFL list

Just under half of those players (14 players) were drafted at a pick higher than 31

Only one of those players, Martin Gleeson (pick 53), had no senior football experience.

Only 3 other post pick 31 players were still 18 when selected (Fantasia, Long and Bellchambers)

So, 10 of the 15 post pick 31 players were 19 YO or over when drafted

One third (10) of all the EFC players drafted since 2007 who are still on an AFL list were not from the main draft (ie: were from the Rookie or PSD)

All 14 players who were drafted at pick 54 or later had played senior football

No player without senior football experience drafted after pick 53 is still on our list

Great analysis, SCarey! Thanks for this.

theDJR · November 2, 2016, 12:04am

Baguley at this stage is irreplaceable. We've got nothing. There is a certain individual with whom we are all very familiar who I desperately hope ends up on our list soon, as he is a fair chance of being decent at that role.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=gxPF9AeHznE