Draft Strategy

In terms of list balance what do we need to draft? Even though we finished as wooden spooners I think our list is in good shape. Over the next 2-3 years we will only lose Watson, Kelly and Stanton to retirement. And we've just lost Dempsey, a developing ruckman and a series of second-string fringe midfielders/flankers. I'm assuming we will sign Green as DFA and we will take McCluggage as best available.

So I think everyone will agree that as long as we draft in another ruck prospect and a few midfielders/back flank options (preferably inside midfielders and versatile defenders with speed) we will make this offseason a success. This is a great position to be in because we donā€™t have to reach at any picks to fill a hole e.g. Freo and Carlton reaching for talls. So going best available at all picks should set us up pretty well. We will most likely have a pick earmarked for another ruckman but you would say that will most likely be a late ND/rookie pick.

An ideal situation would be:

Pick 1: McLuggage - best available; what a luxury to add another super smart, highly skilled well-rounded midfielder to slot alongside Zerrett, Heppell and Parish. Sick of years past where our midfield was so one dimensional. With Hugh we now have a solid core who can win a lot it inside and out, but most importantly make really good decisions and then execute with brilliant disposal.

Pick 20, 29, 41: best available; which at these picks, is generally in line with our current (but only slight) needs. Easy to find inside midfielders and speedy versatile flankers at these picks. Because our list is so balanced at the moment we can afford to choose a tall kpp/ruckman if one slips. e.g. Tim English @ 20, Todd Marshall @ 20, 29,41. You can laugh at this examples but it happens all the time. You wouldnā€™t mind picking a kpp if theyā€™re too good to pass. I remember when we picked Carlisle at 23-ish one year we had already heaps of tall options and probably needed more midfield prospects but Iā€™m sure people donā€™t regret that decision.

In my opinion youā€™ve under-estimated our pending retirements. Over the next 2-3 years I expect we will see Goddard, Baguley, Hocking and Howlett retire as well as those you list (Watson / Kelly / Stanton).

Francis is a fair chance at replacing Goddard in the utility role.

Watson, Hocking and Howlett as inside mids are more difficult. Bird will be getting on by then as well. We must find some big bodies for our midfield going forward. It is one of the reasons I think Langford, for all his forward skills, is being given so much midfield time. Still, we need some more coming through. A priority in my view, and why Iā€™m a bit surprised Brodie isnā€™t the obvious #1 draft pick.

Kelly has a number of suitors for his role. Not that any of them are great options yet, but all are at least serviceable and some have good upside.

Stanton has a bunch of suitors for his role as well. Having stated that, Iā€™m not sure weā€™ve found one that can play a game and not be tagged out of it. Still, not our biggest concern as I think we have plenty of potential wingman. And truth be told, Stants might not keep his spot as a starting wingman this year indicating that we already have him reasonably covered.

Baguley at this stage is irreplaceable. Weā€™ve got nothing. There is a certain individual with whom we are all very familiar who I desperately hope ends up on our list soon, as he is a fair chance of being decent at that role. A priority in my opinion, but can be filled pretty reliably from the mature age pool of players.

Other than that, I agree with you, just get more talent onto the list. We do have room on the list for one more tall and one more ruckman. But if we get them this year or next or the one after, I donā€™t think it matters much.

Anyone checked out that young Western Australian kid surname English, 200cms all and still growing, very mobile ruckman and a good kick.

Wont make it to pick 20

Just like Grundy would never have slipped to 18. It happens. I wouldnā€™t put money on it but it happens.

These are the players who were over 18 when recruited and had played in senior football competitions.

Brown
Hartley
Walla
Ambrose
Baguley
Hibberd
Jenkins
Howlett
Crameri
Hooker

Currently I would put Hooker and Jenkins in the elite category, Walla, Hartley and Hibberd in the good with potential to be elite category, Baguley and Crameri in the very good category, and Brown, Ambrose and Howlett in the very serviceable category with all of these players either having or being capable of being 100 game players. Not bad for players selected to perform a role, Sydney have been famous for doing this with recycled players to great effect (eg: Ted Richards).

If you add in Fantasia and Bellchambers you are including the players later picked players who came from interstate and were 18 when selected, admittedly Hooker was close to being one of these, turning 19 just before the draft. And as you say, players from interstate have less under 18 opportunities, so are more likely to play senior football. The sample is way too small to make major statements about, but would you say that Jerrett and Marty Gleeson who were later picks who didnā€™t give the recruiters the benefit of playing senior football before being drafted were as good a selection as the even later picked Fantasia, Hooker and Bellchambers?

Interestingly Jenkins was drafted out of Lake Boga, and Iā€™m not sure whether he was playing state seniors, and Iā€™m not sure that Hooker as a just 19yo who had had glandular had played any state level seniors either.

Not sure what it means though :slight_smile:

Iā€™d still say that generally >18 with state league are role players. Some very very good. Interestingly thereā€™s no top level mids on our list, but I guess Sam Mitchell would have met that criteria, so maybe you can get anything from state leagues if you look hard enough.

As for 18yos with state league experience, I think itā€™s just another piece of evidence you can use. I wonder how it might compare to the academy guys taking in a vfl team for instance?

Im not sure you can draw anything from fanta vs Merrett vs Gleeson. 18yos are 18yos and you have to work out how theyā€™re going to develop. But getting 20-22 yos who have matured both physically and mentally is definitely something that reduces risks in the draft process

In terms of list balance what do we need to draft? Even though we finished as wooden spooners I think our list is in good shape. Over the next 2-3 years we will only lose Watson, Kelly and Stanton to retirement. And we've just lost Dempsey, a developing ruckman and a series of second-string fringe midfielders/flankers. I'm assuming we will sign Green as DFA and we will take McCluggage as best available.

So I think everyone will agree that as long as we draft in another ruck prospect and a few midfielders/back flank options (preferably inside midfielders and versatile defenders with speed) we will make this offseason a success. This is a great position to be in because we donā€™t have to reach at any picks to fill a hole e.g. Freo and Carlton reaching for talls. So going best available at all picks should set us up pretty well. We will most likely have a pick earmarked for another ruckman but you would say that will most likely be a late ND/rookie pick.

An ideal situation would be:

Pick 1: McLuggage - best available; what a luxury to add another super smart, highly skilled well-rounded midfielder to slot alongside Zerrett, Heppell and Parish. Sick of years past where our midfield was so one dimensional. With Hugh we now have a solid core who can win a lot it inside and out, but most importantly make really good decisions and then execute with brilliant disposal.

Pick 20, 29, 41: best available; which at these picks, is generally in line with our current (but only slight) needs. Easy to find inside midfielders and speedy versatile flankers at these picks. Because our list is so balanced at the moment we can afford to choose a tall kpp/ruckman if one slips. e.g. Tim English @ 20, Todd Marshall @ 20, 29,41. You can laugh at this examples but it happens all the time. You wouldnā€™t mind picking a kpp if theyā€™re too good to pass. I remember when we picked Carlisle at 23-ish one year we had already heaps of tall options and probably needed more midfield prospects but Iā€™m sure people donā€™t regret that decision.

In my opinion youā€™ve under-estimated our pending retirements. Over the next 2-3 years I expect we will see Goddard, Baguley, Hocking and Howlett retire as well as those you list (Watson / Kelly / Stanton).

Francis is a fair chance at replacing Goddard in the utility role.

Watson, Hocking and Howlett as inside mids are more difficult. Bird will be getting on by then as well. We must find some big bodies for our midfield going forward. It is one of the reasons I think Langford, for all his forward skills, is being given so much midfield time. Still, we need some more coming through. A priority in my view, and why Iā€™m a bit surprised Brodie isnā€™t the obvious #1 draft pick.

Kelly has a number of suitors for his role. Not that any of them are great options yet, but all are at least serviceable and some have good upside.

Stanton has a bunch of suitors for his role as well. Having stated that, Iā€™m not sure weā€™ve found one that can play a game and not be tagged out of it. Still, not our biggest concern as I think we have plenty of potential wingman. And truth be told, Stants might not keep his spot as a starting wingman this year indicating that we already have him reasonably covered.

Baguley at this stage is irreplaceable. Weā€™ve got nothing. There is a certain individual with whom we are all very familiar who I desperately hope ends up on our list soon, as he is a fair chance of being decent at that role. A priority in my opinion, but can be filled pretty reliably from the mature age pool of players.

Other than that, I agree with you, just get more talent onto the list. We do have room on the list for one more tall and one more ruckman. But if we get them this year or next or the one after, I donā€™t think it matters much.

Anyone checked out that young Western Australian kid surname English, 200cms all and still growing, very mobile ruckman and a good kick.

Wont make it to pick 20

Just like Grundy would never have slipped to 18. It happens. I wouldnā€™t put money on it but it happens.

If he does and we pick him. Ill eat my multicoloured ISC training guernsey. But its not gonna happen

These are the players who were over 18 when recruited and had played in senior football competitions.

Brown
Hartley
Walla
Ambrose
Baguley
Hibberd
Jenkins
Howlett
Crameri
Hooker

Currently I would put Hooker and Jenkins in the elite category, Walla, Hartley and Hibberd in the good with potential to be elite category, Baguley and Crameri in the very good category, and Brown, Ambrose and Howlett in the very serviceable category with all of these players either having or being capable of being 100 game players. Not bad for players selected to perform a role, Sydney have been famous for doing this with recycled players to great effect (eg: Ted Richards).

If you add in Fantasia and Bellchambers you are including the players later picked players who came from interstate and were 18 when selected, admittedly Hooker was close to being one of these, turning 19 just before the draft. And as you say, players from interstate have less under 18 opportunities, so are more likely to play senior football. The sample is way too small to make major statements about, but would you say that Jerrett and Marty Gleeson who were later picks who didnā€™t give the recruiters the benefit of playing senior football before being drafted were as good a selection as the even later picked Fantasia, Hooker and Bellchambers?

Interestingly Jenkins was drafted out of Lake Boga, and Iā€™m not sure whether he was playing state seniors, and Iā€™m not sure that Hooker as a just 19yo who had had glandular had played any state level seniors either.

Not sure what it means though :slight_smile:

Iā€™d still say that generally >18 with state league are role players. Some very very good. Interestingly thereā€™s no top level mids on our list, but I guess Sam Mitchell would have met that criteria, so maybe you can get anything from state leagues if you look hard enough.

As for 18yos with state league experience, I think itā€™s just another piece of evidence you can use. I wonder how it might compare to the academy guys taking in a vfl team for instance?

Im not sure you can draw anything from fanta vs Merrett vs Gleeson. 18yos are 18yos and you have to work out how theyā€™re going to develop. But getting 20-22 yos who have matured both physically and mentally is definitely something that reduces risks in the draft process

Yep, that all sounds right. I do think Hooker was closer to the 18YO group and there isnā€™t much to compare to be sure about amongst the 18 year olds, but I have a hunch that Fanta stepping out onto the ground in the SANFL Grand Final and being part of a senior premiership would have been great for his frame of mind and approach to football, compared to other skinny kids who have only played juniors.

As far as mids go, we were in the hunt for Barlow, and I think the major point I am trying to make is not to undervalue the mature age player and risk missing out. Barlow would have justified a main draft pick for example.

The Bulldogs werenā€™t shy and used pick 57 and beat us to Tory Dickson rather than wait for the rookie draft where we were probably thinking, they also used pick 35 last year on Marcus Adams who was 22 at that point, and had a breakout year in the WAFL, they will going for Ben Long this year and Iā€™m hoping they will wait to pick 50 (although Knightmare is thinking theyā€™ll use pick 26) and we can get him at pick 41, not sure Jackets would be in favour of using pick 20 to make sure of him even though he is perhaps a Baguley replacement and also a promising forward and has potential as a mid. I also think we should be thinking of getting Aaron Heppell at pick 68.

Looking at last yearā€™s draft when we had two picks in the 20s we just took unnecessary risk and reached for players. Though I havenā€™t given up on Morgen, it was a wtf moment.

Steinberg move is another that makes me shake my head from past drafts.

Hope we donā€™t take stupid risks like that.

Looking at last year's draft when we had two picks in the 20s we just took unnecessary risk and reached for players. Though I haven't given up on Morgen, it was a wtf moment.

Steinberg move is another that makes me shake my head from past drafts.

Hope we donā€™t take stupid risks like that.

Maybe you should go talk to our recruiters and tell them to stop reaching and wasting our picks in the second round on hacks like Zach Merrett and Zaharakis and Colyer and Carlisle, you clearly seem to know more than they do.

A draft strategy isnā€™t ā€œtake player x hereā€ itā€™s a plan for what to do with each pick that springs from an overall philosophy So, for example, it might be ā€œfill a need with pick one by getting best inside midā€ (ie a philosophy of filling needs) or ā€œget the top player on our draft board at pick oneā€ (ie draft BPA) etc.

TBH in this draft one strategy I would have is drafting into the teeth of the draft, ie this draft is overloaded with mid talent, I think basically with our first two or three picks we should get mids (whether all of them end up playing there is another question). Basically I think the only talls we should go after are from our pick 41 and after, especially given the tall talent apparently available in next years draft.

I think itā€™s clear that there will be some players we covet that will drop to our second and third round selections, reason being this draft is deep. Alex Morgan last year was a needs based pick, perhaps a reason for that was what other players were also available at that selection, maybe this year there will be players at our later selections that we will draft regardless of position just because of how high we rate them.

If you look at other sports that have drafts, in the NFL each team has a distinct draft philosophy; so youā€™ll see teams like the Patriots frequently trade back and gather later or future picks (and they tend to focus on a few colleges for their picks) or a team like the Ravens attempt to gather compensatory picks, or other teams frequently trade up in order to target a player they like or to target a need. Obviously the NFL allows draft day trading of picks and itā€™s different because of how important the QB is to that league.

At the end of the day though I pretty much trust the people we have making the decisions; we draft well and we have some early picks in a deep draft, weā€™ll be fine whatever happens in the draft.

Steinberg over Parker will haunt me for decades

Our strategy should be to load up on midfielders early, with possibly a lower league big later.

An example might be

Best mid (they are all available)
best available mid (size irrelevant)
best available big bodied mid
best available utility
best available big (lower league ruckman)

go to preseason for upside fringe type player

rookie b for those we nominated and not selected.

For what itā€™s worthā€¦

Pick 1ā€¦best player of course. Preferably a Gun mid who gets it himself, good quality kick, goals are a bonus of course.
Pick 20ā€¦big inside mid 185-190cm who is tough as nails, physically big, not only in height.
Pick 29ā€¦ Mids are prob needed if the young talls donā€™t stack up, so a running hb or wingman with good pace and skills.
Could be a good young tall slip here? fwd/back doesnā€™t matter. Our needs prob dictate a fwd? Hard working tall who leads up at the ball.
Pick 41ā€¦maybe a small elusive X factor outside mid / half fwd
Pick 68ā€¦??? Iā€™d like to use this pick. If we donā€™t take a dfa maybe use this pick on a state league ruck as back up for TBC and Cheesy. Or maybe an ESSENDON VFL player who we like.

For what it's worth...

Pick 1ā€¦best player of course. Preferably a Gun mid who gets it himself, good quality kick, goals are a bonus of course.
Pick 20ā€¦big inside mid 185-190cm who is tough as nails, physically big, not only in height.
Pick 29ā€¦ Mids are prob needed if the young talls donā€™t stack up, so a running hb or wingman with good pace and skills.
Could be a good young tall slip here? fwd/back doesnā€™t matter. Our needs prob dictate a fwd? Hard working tall who leads up at the ball.
Pick 41ā€¦maybe a small elusive X factor outside mid / half fwd
Pick 68ā€¦??? Iā€™d like to use this pick. If we donā€™t take a dfa maybe use this pick on a state league ruck as back up for TBC and Cheesy. Or maybe an ESSENDON VFL player who we like.

Pick 1 - Mccluggage
Pick 20- Slider (Witherden, Marshall most likely)
Pick 29- Begley
Pick 41- Rioli
Pick 68 - Darcy Cameron

I donā€™t get this slider bullshit that everyone goes on with. Just because the stupid media or some wannabe experts on big footy think a bloke should go at a certain point in the draft, doesnā€™t mean heā€™s actually worth taking if heā€™s still on the table 10 or 20 picks later.

I don't get this slider bullshit that everyone goes on with. Just because the stupid media or some wannabe experts on big footy think a bloke should go at a certain point in the draft, doesn't mean he's actually worth taking if he's still on the table 10 or 20 picks later.

You may want to stay away from the biggest slider and bolter thread that has been created then.

I don't get this slider bullshit that everyone goes on with. Just because the stupid media or some wannabe experts on big footy think a bloke should go at a certain point in the draft, doesn't mean he's actually worth taking if he's still on the table 10 or 20 picks later.

Media bullshit???

Weā€™re talking a Jacketsā€™ special or two ā€œI canā€™t believe he was still available at pick 20/29ā€, in his post draft presser.

After Zerrett, Langford, Laverde and Redman (there is still time for Morgan), wash your mouth out!

Essendon

List needs

  1. A contested-ball winning beast through the midfield - (Alongside Jobe Watson, someone with similar size and power at the coalface is required to pair with Dyson Heppell and the clubā€™s young, developing midfield group)

  2. Elite young outside midfielder - (Brendon Goddard and Brent Stanton are nearing the end and lack obvious successors)

  3. Second high-quality key forward to pair long-term with Joe Daniher - (ex-Giant James Stewart may be good enough but optimally Daniher should have a second star key forward to pair with, allowing Cale Hooker to play back)

  4. Young ruckman to develop and eventually succeed Matthew Leuenberger and Tom Bellchambers - (with Gach Nyuon delisted, a second young ruckman would be beneficial)

  5. Crumbing small forward who can kick 30+ goals in a season and heap on the forward pressure (Orazio Fantasia is a talent but needs more support in the front half)

Draft picks: 1, 20, 29, 41, 68, 95, 113, 131

Who should they draft?

Hugh McCluggage with the first pick overall is a great list fit both through the midfield and up forward.

Hugh McCluggage poses for a portrait during the 2016 AFL draft combine. Scott Barbour/Getty Images
Around picks 29 and 41 there are likely to be some strong-bodied midfielders still available with Jonty Scharenberg, Dylan Clarke, Jack Graham and Willem Drew among a larger group Essendon may consider with one of those selections.

Through the ruck, under-18 prospects Sean Darcy, Jordan Sweet, Jeremy Goddard and Peter Ladhams if there late draft or as rookies would be suitable list fits and may be developable young ruckmen. Otherwise next year there are lots of talented rucks who may feature towards the top of the draft.

As small forwards, late draft or as rookies, Tyson Stengle, Kym LeBois, Sam Fowler, Dan Allsop, Kyle Kirby and Willie Rioli are some names who may be considered.

As a stop gap key forward, Essendon would benefit from considering Brett Eddy.

From Knightmare most recent article

So ideal world

  1. Clug
    20/29. Drew, Clarke, Graham and best available maybe HBF
  2. Quality small forward
  3. Eddy

Buckleyā€™s chance Marshall is available at 20. Heā€™s the best tall forward in the draft and if he was consistent he would be in the number 1 talks. Plenty of clubs would kill for a good FF, and yet people think practically every club will pass him up?

Convert that to Games played and percentile as compared to the rest of the competition and you might have something, else those stats are not worth much.

[quote=ā€œHenry_s_Angry_Pills, post:335, topic:3761, full:trueā€]

Heā€™s been here all of 18 months and been injured for 9? of them

I donā€™t really know what else to say. He was rated inside the top 40 of his draft, it doesnā€™t make sense to chop him at the first opportunity. Not like weā€™ll have much of a squeeze for spots.

Also Iā€™d love to know the hit rate for 3rd+ round rookie picks to even play 1 game.
[/quote]](#14 Jordan Ridley - Riddle me this)

Rookie and PSD picks from the beginning of the Rookie Draft in 1996/97.

The Rookie Draft has been going since the end of 1996 which divides into roughly equal Sheedy and post Sheedy era. In the Sheedy era (not including the 2007 draft) 14 out of 39 rookies played a senior game (36%) and as much as we loved them, all 4 of his PSD picks played senior footy, (Zantuck, Heffernan, Camporeale and Michael), and in the post Sheedy (starting from the 2007 draft) 17 out of 27 non recycled EFC playing rookies have played at least 1 senior game (63%) and 6 out of 7 PSD players have played at least 1 senior game, but the nature of the picks were quite different from the Sheedy days when the rules were different also (Hams, Hibberd, Hardingham, Skipworth, Williams, Bellchambers).

The players who were rookied after being on the senior list previously were John Williams, Anthony Long, Kurt Aylett, Jay Neagle, Tyson Slattery, Ariel Steinberg, Will Hams and currently Sean McKernan. These are all post Sheedy era and only the last 3 out of the 8 (37.5%) played senior football after being rookied, and perhaps Will was lucky with the sanctions increasing his chances. So it may be reasonable to conclude that we have mainly wasted picks with recycling rookie picks except where it was to cover a specific need like McKernan as ruck depth and Stein as KPD depth, both of which have been needed.

So were we much worse at recruiting rookies in the Sheedy era? I suppose we were clinging to the glory days of the of being a consistent finals side up until 2004 and Sheedy was more prone to picking his finals players and picking up recycled players (see PSD and a number of infamous draft picks) rather than the new blood amongst the rookies, is one way of looking at it, but we got worse and worse at picking rookies as the Sheedy era went on (post 2003).

By my reckoning, there are 7 players of the Sheedy era who made a significant contribution as best 22 players (in bold) who were from the Rookie draft and the PSD, and 9 players in the post Sheedy era who either have, would have (if we could have kept them) or are likely to make a significant contribution as best 22 players, and if Sam Draper makes it we could be averaging 1 best 22 player a year from the Rookie draft in the post Sheedy era, which is a pretty impressive strike rate. We currently have 7 promoted rookies / PSDraftees on our senior list at the moment (TBC, Bags, Ambrose, Heater, Bobcat, Walla and Conor), 5 of which are arguably best 22 and who play a significant role in the side.

Personally I think Dodoro needs a lot of credit for being able to spot upside that can be developed right down to the rookie draft

Below are those players originally picked up in the Rookie Draft and PSD who have played at least 1 senior game
(R1= Rookie pick 1 , R AP = Rookie Alternative Pathway pick, PSD 6 = Pre-season Draft pick 6)

2016
R AP Ben McNeice

2015
R22 Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti

2014
R12 Shaun McKernan
R47 Jake Long
R62 AP Conor McKenna

2013
R26 Patrick Ambrose - he goes OK

2012
PSD 6 Will Hams

2011
R11 Dalgliesh
R37 Mark Baguley
R29 Dell
R78 Brendan Lee

2010
PSD 4 Hibberd
R12 Josh Jenkins (Adelaide)

2009
PSD 7 Kyle Hardingham
R 30 Ben Howlett
R 43 Stewart Crameri
R 55 Marigliani

2008
PSD 3 Skipworth
R 64 Michael Quinn (AP)

2007
PSD 5 John Williams
PSD 8 Tom Bellchambers
R 5 Rhys Magin
R21 Jarrod Atkinson

2006
Interesting to note the change in tone of drafting going back to the Sheedy years, only recycled players recruited via PSD and rookie draft played
PSD 2 Mal Michael
R33 Rama

2005
Sheedy strikes again
PSD 4 Camporeale
PSD 10 Heffernan
R20 Heath Hocking

2004
PSD 6 Zantuck
R27 Benjamin Jolley

2003
2 not bad rookie picks in 2003
R27 NLM
R42 Andrew Lovett

2002
Who could forget
R28 Courtney Johns

2001
R46 Ken Hall

2000
R32 Damien Peverill

1999
R14 Cory McGrath
R30 David Johnson (Markā€™s brother - played for Geelong)
R58 James Podsiadly (Geelong, Adelaide)

1998
No PSD or rookie picks

1997
R3 Dean Rioli
R67 Mark Johnson (rare distinction re-rookied from the rookie list)

1996
R13 Mark Johnson
R45 Gary Moorcroft

4 Likes

100% on the re-rookie from the rookie list?

Opportunity for Long.

1 Like

Iā€™d also suggest the comment against 2006 was more a comment on the specifics of that draft. (And the fact that we took 6 or 7 draftees in the top 40 odd of the ND that year.)

(And still I thought Dean Dick had played 1 game, but apparently not)