Elections in Europe

Don 't want to diss Merkel, but the response to the GFC pushing for budget restraint imposed on the poorer EU members has not helped stability. Some are saying that Greece can only get out of its mess by leaving the Euro, if allowed to by its paymasters.

If Greece leaves the euro the drachma immediately devaluates to worthlessness and every Greek finds their life savings won’t buy a cup of olive oil.

On the other hand, if they stay in the euro, they are shackled to a currency driven by the much bigger & stronger German economy, & which can’t devalue like the Greek economy needs it to. Which leads to the crisis stretching on more or less forever.

I suspect (from not a massive base of economic knowledge!) they’d be better off out of the euro in the long run, but if they leave with their current debt levels it’d trigger a huge crisis for them which (given current global political climate) would probably end up with them run by lunatics and/or fascist blowhards. But their debt is largely held by France & Germany, and they have no desire to make it possible for Greece to leave the euro, since weak economies in the euro means the euro stays artificially low which means French & German exporters get a massive artificial boost.

I’d really love to see the justification for the universal wage. I can see it for people unable to work etc but I’m really struggling justifying it for professional layabouts and wastrels. It just strikes me as fanciful and more than the IPA would throw tanties.

Umm, guys, what is “IPA”?

I am assuming its not this:

Nowhere near as fun as one of those, I’m afraid.

Institute of Public Affairs. Wikipedia rap sheet about them:

Big bunch of arseholes and names that that are highly unsurprising.

Nowhere near as fun as one of those, I'm afraid.

Institute of Public Affairs. Wikipedia rap sheet about them:

Big bunch of arseholes and names that that are highly unsurprising.


Thanks comrade.

Yes, looking at that list of attendees at the 70th celebration had me throwing up.

Nowhere near as fun as one of those, I'm afraid.

Institute of Public Affairs. Wikipedia rap sheet about them:

Big bunch of arseholes and names that that are highly unsurprising.


Thanks comrade.

Yes, looking at that list of attendees at the 70th celebration had me throwing up.

“Notable absentees include: Dracula, Attila the Hun, Caligula, Satan…”

Yeah, it’s pretty gob smacking. Take a look at the “Notable People” section. John Elliot. Of-farking-course he’s there! Andrew Bolt’s son. Gina…

Don 't want to diss Merkel, but the response to the GFC pushing for budget restraint imposed on the poorer EU members has not helped stability. Some are saying that Greece can only get out of its mess by leaving the Euro, if allowed to by its paymasters.

If Greece leaves the euro the drachma immediately devaluates to worthlessness and every Greek finds their life savings won’t buy a cup of olive oil.

On the other hand, if they stay in the euro, they are shackled to a currency driven by the much bigger & stronger German economy, & which can’t devalue like the Greek economy needs it to. Which leads to the crisis stretching on more or less forever.

I suspect (from not a massive base of economic knowledge!) they’d be better off out of the euro in the long run, but if they leave with their current debt levels it’d trigger a huge crisis for them which (given current global political climate) would probably end up with them run by lunatics and/or fascist blowhards. But their debt is largely held by France & Germany, and they have no desire to make it possible for Greece to leave the euro, since weak economies in the euro means the euro stays artificially low which means French & German exporters get a massive artificial boost.

I never even got to the failed economics stage, but have had to deal with those engaged in the imperfect science.
Following Navarro’s comments about German currency manipulation I tried to follow the debate, not too successfully.

krugman.blogs.nytimes.com.

Keep an eye on Macron in France:

I'd really love to see the justification for the universal wage. I can see it for people unable to work etc but I'm really struggling justifying it for professional layabouts and wastrels. It just strikes me as fanciful and more than the IPA would throw tanties.

I think the idea behind it is that industries require less and less employees over time as tech advances and globalisation takes over the labour duties. So, what do you do with a growing population and decreasing employment opportunities? For what it’s worth I don’t necessarily think it will work.

Dumb question from an economic ignoramus, but could it be an alternative to income supplementation for part time and casual work, or conceptually close to the basic wage when there was full employment.

There are some WTO provisions on currency manipulation in traded goods , drawn from GATT and Havana Charter/ Bretton Woods, but very difficult to implement and there are some BOP exemptions.
At one stage the US was threatening the WTO dispute settlement provisions against China, but don’t know where it is at now.
wto.org

I'd really love to see the justification for the universal wage. I can see it for people unable to work etc but I'm really struggling justifying it for professional layabouts and wastrels. It just strikes me as fanciful and more than the IPA would throw tanties.

I think the idea behind it is that industries require less and less employees over time as tech advances and globalisation takes over the labour duties. So, what do you do with a growing population and decreasing employment opportunities? For what it’s worth I don’t necessarily think it will work.

The trials are tiny right now (2000 people and only unemployed people) but remember a universal wage is paid to everyone. Unemployed, employed, multi billionaire. With it though all the other things disappear like unemployment benefits, family benefits etc… The ‘ideal’ universal is to pay a large wage and nothing is subsidised. Schools, hospitals, etc…

The universal wages covers all the basic needs. If you want a better life though you can work.

Which country was trying the universal wages thing?
I seem to recall Switzerland, right?

Finland I thought.

Yep.
Netherlands are almost there also.
The Swiss held a referendum - a crappily worded one, iirc - it failed.

Can anyone even imagine someone trying to get universal wages as a concept floating over here? The IPA and their benefactors would be in full tanty mode. Party leaders would topple from great heights, full on media propaganda campaigns, until an election was lost over it in a landslide and everyone across the land was convinced that the idea is pure evil.

It’s actually a very messy debate. As was said above, Switzerland had a referendum on it which was soundly defeated. Finland is often reported as having introduced it, but the only thing definite that I’ve seen is that there’s a pilot program on a very small scale in one part of the country. Apparently Alaska also has a version of it, paid for out of oil and gas revenues.

The endorsed Socialist candidate for the presidential election in May, Benoit Hamon, has it as his signature policy, but has been incredibly vague about what it might involve, or how it might be paid for.

I'd really love to see the justification for the universal wage. I can see it for people unable to work etc but I'm really struggling justifying it for professional layabouts and wastrels. It just strikes me as fanciful and more than the IPA would throw tanties.

More to the point, what’s the justification for paying it to high income earners who have absolutely no need for it? Because that’s the point about the “universal” part: everybody gets it, not just welfare recipients.

If all it really amounted to was some way of replacing all the insanely complicated different benefits payable to different people in different circumstances, it might make some sense, if anyone could work out a sensible way for that to happen. But all the ideas are so vague that it’s difficult if not impossible to form any opinion.

I'd really love to see the justification for the universal wage. I can see it for people unable to work etc but I'm really struggling justifying it for professional layabouts and wastrels. It just strikes me as fanciful and more than the IPA would throw tanties.

More to the point, what’s the justification for paying it to high income earners who have absolutely no need for it? Because that’s the point about the “universal” part: everybody gets it, not just welfare recipients.

If all it really amounted to was some way of replacing all the insanely complicated different benefits payable to different people in different circumstances, it might make some sense, if anyone could work out a sensible way for that to happen. But all the ideas are so vague that it’s difficult if not impossible to form any opinion.

The idea at the top end is that things like negative gearing benefits would also disappear or work place related expenses deductions with regards to taxation.

Don 't want to diss Merkel, but the response to the GFC pushing for budget restraint imposed on the poorer EU members has not helped stability. Some are saying that Greece can only get out of its mess by leaving the Euro, if allowed to by its paymasters.

If Greece leaves the euro the drachma immediately devaluates to worthlessness and every Greek finds their life savings won’t buy a cup of olive oil.

On the other hand, if they stay in the euro, they are shackled to a currency driven by the much bigger & stronger German economy, & which can’t devalue like the Greek economy needs it to. Which leads to the crisis stretching on more or less forever.

I suspect (from not a massive base of economic knowledge!) they’d be better off out of the euro in the long run, but if they leave with their current debt levels it’d trigger a huge crisis for them which (given current global political climate) would probably end up with them run by lunatics and/or fascist blowhards. But their debt is largely held by France & Germany, and they have no desire to make it possible for Greece to leave the euro, since weak economies in the euro means the euro stays artificially low which means French & German exporters get a massive artificial boost.

I’d like to think I have a decent economic base. Have looked a bit at Greek debt and yes, they should be out of the Euro (they should never have been admitted in the first place, but hindsight is always 20-20).

The Euro is far too high for Greek exports to be competitive in global markets. A lower Drachma would give their economy a kick start, but there’d be a fair bit of pain in the short term.

The debt is now largely held by the European Central Bank and other EU bodies, rather than financial institutions - means there’s a touch more stability and less risk of a Euro wide crisis coming out of Greece.

In all the early EU enlargement negotiations, Greece was said to be the easiest : Where do I sign? With its narrow trade and production base, it posed no disruption in opening up the single market. About the only card Greece has held has been political in regard to blocking Turkey’s accession and its strategic geographical location to Eastern Europe. The EU now has other reasons re Turkey, like human rights. I don’t know how much importance is placed on its strategic location now and whether it has any connected bargain chips re NATO.

Fake news Euro-style -

Report of mass sexual assault by refugees in Frankfurt was ‘baseless’, police say
A widely-reported, inflammatory news story about a “rioting sex mob” of immigrants assaulting women on New Year’s Eve in Frankfurt, Germany, has been exposed as “baseless” after investigation by police.

In a humiliating backdown, the German newspaper Bild, which originally reported the claims, has apologised for what it said was a “false report”, which was based on the now disputed claims of a pub owner and some of their staff.

On February 6, Bild reported claims that women were attacked by a 50-strong group of “Arabic and North African looking men”, at the city’s Fressgass nightspot. The group were also said to have stolen drinks and clothing, and thrown bottles and fireworks.

The newspaper headlined its story “37 days after New Year’s Eve, victims break their silence – sex mob in the Fressgass”. Another report put the size of the fictional mob of “mostly drunk refugees” at 900.

The newspaper admitted on Tuesday the claims, and its report, were “in no way confirmed by the police and are completely unreliable”.

The retraction comes amid worldwide concern over fake news being used to drive political agendas, particularly on right-wing and nationalist websites.

Such fake news often seeks to confuse or exaggerate events. For example, on 2016 New Year’s Eve in Cologne, Germany there had been a rash of criminal complaints related to assault on women.

German police said they had interrogated staff and patrons at the pub and their statements “created considerable doubt about the portrayal of events” and that the story was “baseless” or “without foundation”. One person who had claimed to have witnessed the attacks was not even in Frankfurt on New Year’s Eve.

Prosecutors are now investigating two of the people who allegedly fabricated the claims.

Bild wrote: "The Bild editorial team expressly apologises for this non-truthful reporting and the accusations against those concerned.

“This reporting does not correspond in any way to the journalistic standards of Bild.”

The newspaper said it would investigate how it came to be published.

Bild editor in chief Julian Reichelt apologised on Twitter and said he would “promptly inform you of the consequences” of the investigation.

The Bild story was followed by other German media and re-reported around the world – including right wing newspapers such as the UK’s Daily Express and websites such as Breitbart.

At the time of writing Breitbart had still not taken its original report down, though it did publish a new story saying the pair “may” have made up the attacks.

The Express edited its story, adding police denials and Bild’s retraction but retaining the original claims.

Germany has had to deal with a rash of hoax stories targeting refugees and immigrants, with the rise of anti-immigration political party AfD and tensions following 2015’s extraordinary migration of almost one million refugees into the country.

The stories circulate on social media and occasionally spill over into mainstream media.

In early 2016 a Berlin teen admitted she had invented a story about being abducted and gang-raped by migrants. The story was widely reported by Russian media and on social networks, even leading to a street demonstration by members of the girl’s Russian-speaking community in Berlin.

Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov accused German authorities of a cover-up, before the girl withdrew her claims after a medical examination revealed she had not been raped, and police found her phone records put her nowhere near the scene of the alleged crime.

The spate of hoax news led one German woman to establish a list of such spurious claims, which she keeps updated online and on Twitter.

According to @HoaxMap, earlier this week hoax stories have circulated about refugees supposedly interfering with funerals.

However the fake news problem was not isolated to anti-migrant groups: in January last year a volunteer at a refugee centre admitted she had made up the story of a Syrian asylum seeker dying in the cold waiting for help outside a Berlin refugee centre.

Euro exchange rate problems back on the agenda, Greek problems not resolved . Merkel saying that if Germany had the mark, exchange rates would be different, but she has no control over Euro, not within her decision- making powers.

9-weeks till the 1st round of the French elections.