Interesting this.
So I’ve read that article in this week’s Speccie being quoted/paraphrased. Mortimer is provoking thought around what we’re seeing play out in Georgia, France and Romania. Greece also in recent years one could add… but Germany won’t have a ruling AfD imho because they won’t get a majority and no other party wants to work with them. With France, it’s their Republic and Le Pen isn’t President and her party cannot win through clearly enough to form a government. It’s deadlocked in the LA still … new elections this year might be needed. Messy but democratic.
Democracy is complicated in Europe, particularly in places like e.g. Germany and Belgium where several layers of government and power lay within. And e.g. in the UK with a FPTP system where the popular vote for Right leaning parties like Reform is high, but results in them winning only a few outright seats in the HoC. No 2nd place medals. But Farage’s Reform are on a roll, broadening their appeal and base. Currently outstripping the Tories post the July 2024 election.
Back to Mortimer and Elena Panina’s little intervention though. Elena was previously a member of the Duma and dominant United Russia, nowadays a soft seller of Putin’s Russia and regional “influence” … add Iran to that btw. Quick to call out Western commentary on Russian affairs and make no mistake, looking wistfully at the chance of a breakup of western Europe.
Mortimer ‘s article is balanced and himself warns of the peril in democracies attempting to muzzle popular votes. His last two paragraphs are in fact this:
“One might counter that German democracy is endangered more by politicians who seek to ban an opponent because they find their popular ideas disagreeable. Isn’t that what happens in dictatorships and regimes such as the one in Putin’s Russia?
As Friedrich Nietzsche said: ‘He who fights with monsters might take care lest he thereby becomes a monster.’ “ … and just to complete that lucid quote from Nietzsche I’ll complete it “And if you gaze for long into the abyss, the abyss gazes also into you.”
Sorry Elena. Misleading when plucking key bits of an article to make a point favorable to your own anti- western cause. Pot, kettle, black to Elena I say.
The UK isn’t a perfect democracy, but it and most of western Europe are far more preferable these days (wherever it democratically takes them) to an authoritarian state under Putin.
This is the case for now, but I don’t trust the CDU/CSU to keep to their word on this. Recall there was mass outrage not too long ago when it was revealed the two parties were secretly negotiations.
There was another wacko far-right party in Germany once who everyone was sure would never run the government, because nobody would work with them.
Eventually, the old-school conservatives caved and did just that, out of fear of the lefties and hatred of the decadent inner-city trans people. Spoiler alert - it didn’t work out well for anyone.
I’m old enough to remember when the Libs disowned Pauline Hanson. Since then, they’ve relied on her vote in the Senate, and pretty much adopted her entire immigration policy and indigenous policy. Things change.
I hear your point.
The analogy with Nazism I think is a little wide of the mark, given savage post WW1 socio-economic circumstances in the 30s fuelling their rise back then. Compared to the state of play now.
Germany has undergone huge change over the past few decades since the wall came down. Rise of the Greens and SPD, same with the CDU/CSU strength in a background of strong economic growth. Yet it’s changing and the AfD (particularly in the East) and Die Linke are attracting support. A lot, but not enough to storm the Bundestag come the Feb elections me thinks.
But keep throwing in rising anti Muslim and antisemitIc sentiment across Europe, unresolved migration issues at home, economic downturn, the odd Islamist attack and yep, it could lead to far broader unrest. Taking eejit Musk with his inputs and donations aside, I think the Germans will pull back and it’ll be the CDU in particular to be the anchor through the turbulence. IMHO only of course.
If nothing else, these more extreme voices are forcing the established parties to get their acts together in Germany (and elsewhere). Warning bells are going off. Ignore them and they’ll come back to bite.
There’s been an uproar within Germany and wider ripples in Europe, with some CDU voting with the AfD. This goes against longstanding policy that it would not accept AfD or other far right votes to secure the passage of legislation. It could cause a split within the CDU.
Christian Cons really putting the second bit first there. God bless em, lick of the finger, wind’s blowing a bit fascist, see you next time we need the high road pass Jesus. At least abortion’s no longer a woke issue.
So firstly, there’s a long way to go before the next GE.
And just for context they only have 5 MPs right now in a Commons of 650 members.Tories are the ones being squeezed most, post Starmer’s election and there’s not much of an appetite amongst their ranks to even consider some sort of pact with Nige. Not now nor ever. More like a few Tory headbangers like Suella Braverman will eventually defect. Badenoch their leader is not secure and pretty weak currently, much due to the sheer Labour majority in the HoC. She cannot get a hook and line in at present.
Reform’s strength is rooted within the BRexiteer people and specific seats … and BRexit? Well that’s not gone at all well since 2019. And there’s also plenty of time for Reform to implode again. I’d also reckon the centre and left leaning parties would unite behind Labour in the face of a serious threat to these imposters closer to 2029. N.B. I’m ignoring the Musk effect for now mind you, who might get involved with fistfuls of cash if he and Farage kiss and make up.
There’s a lot not perfect in the UK for sure. And a few unpopular things Labour has introduced tax and priority wise that’s surprised many (me too btw). And polls now as you highlighted also saying Reform are on the burst and charging. Even leading.
But I’d say this country just doesn’t have the appetite to succumb to a right wing Trumpian and populist centric government, push come to shove. They had a bit of a taste of it with Boris, suffered as a result, and decided they didn’t like it as soon as they got the chance to vote again
We’ve seen the same dynamic here, in the USA, and in the UK. A disastrous govt of right wing buffoons who staggered from crisis to daily self-inflicted crisis while shoving corrupt cash into their pockets with both hands is swept decisively out of power. The Brexit Tories and the Trump republicans also have the commonality of having originally won election by explicitly marketing themselves as the party of major dramatic change.
Then the (nominally) centreleft party that beat them proceeds to govern and … do not all that much. Safe pair of hands, don’t rock the boat, make politics boring again, civility, etc etc. Thing is, that underlying desire for change that led to (for instance) the Brexit vote hasn’t gone away. When a stupid failed reformist govt loses, the lesson to learn isn’t that change is bad, it’s that DUMB is bad, but Starmer and Biden and Albanese all got that wrong.
And to make things worse, when you govern with a light touch after a bunch of weirdos have wrecked the joint, and you don’t energetically undo all the ■■■■ that the weirdos did, then you basically cement and endorse the legacy of the weirdos, and make it bipartisan policy. And by doing that, you’re telling the public that the weirdos were actually kinda right or justified all along. Albanese basically adopted Morrison’s entire policy platform from climate to defence to tax with some minor tinkering around the edges, Starmer hasn’t even considered trying to undo brexit, or unravelling the stacking of the House of Lords with corrupt right wingers and Boris Johnson’s affair baby, or moving from FPTP to preferential voting. God help us, 80yo Joe Biden was actually the most decisive of the three, but even he failed to act with decision to punish the coup plotters in his own country because he (or his people) didn’t want to rock the boat. And the US will lose their democracy as a result.
Every time an alleged centre left govt wins power and governs meekly with their right wing predecessor’s policies, they basically endorse their own opposition, which in turn gives their opposition, no matter how crazy, worthless, or incompetent, credibility. I think Reform winning the next election is perfectly credible.
