Another one of those hardly ringing endorsements. Morgan wasn’t good enough, the first time, he won’t have improved since then.
Jacob Townesend… we are not flush with depth in tackling forwards…?
At worst he’d push bags for a spot , or do we not have lost room for him?
Because this is the kind of thing I do, here’s our last 20 picks in the ~20 to ~40 range (ie the modern second round, ignoring F/S picks) ordered by pick. The Essendon second round, if you will.
Partly it shows that assessing these things is difficult because you have to go back a long time to get a half decent sample size. I think if that were presented as a single draft year you’d regard it as middling at best, although the 4-5 players yet to prove themselves could easily tip it one way or the other.
19 Dempsey
19 Kavanagh
20 Laverde
20 Hislop
22 Ridley
23 Zaharakis
23 Pears
24 Carlisle
26 Colyer
26 Zach Merrett
29 Morgan
30 Redman
31 Begley
31 Jackson Merrett
31 Steinberg
33 Anthony Long
34 Ashby
36 Davey
42 Houli
42 Mutch
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Except we didn’t take just one.
We took Redman at 30, the very next pick.
So I’ll repeat myself and assert we were worried / identified a need.
Similarly we took Brown and Hartley as two recycled talls, as cover for the loss of Carlisle.
Yestin Eades was our other choice in that compromised draft - now that was a speculative pick.
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Excellent post & pretty much explained what I was trying to say much more succinctly.
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He was talked about as going from 20-40, not many in the industry suspected him to go much later than our pick.
What I take from drafting is that it’s very hard to get it right.
The transition from gun junior to (at the very least) competitive-consistent-durable AFL player is not guaranteed. Let alone having a 150-200 game player.
Found this (no doubt been posted before) on recent draft summary highs-lows-misses for all clubs.
The 2016 AFL draft has been billed as one of the deepest and most talented of all time, but before you get your hopes up about your club recruiting the competition’s next big star, ask yourself this: just how successful has your team been at the draft in recent years?
We’ve analysed every selection since 2010 to identify your side’s best and worst picks, as well as that one junior star who got away.
Adelaide
Since 2010, the Crows have not had a pick inside the top 10 and have had just four first-rounders in total. The Kurt Tippett debacle in 2012 also made drafting difficult when the Crows were stripped of their two top picks. However, some clever rookie elevations prove that drafting well isn’t always dependant on high picks.
Best pick-up: Jake Lever (Pick No. 14, 2014)
Biggest steal: Rory Laird (Pick No. 86, 2012 - originally selected as a rookie in 2011)
Biggest bust: Nicholas Joyce (Pick No. 46, 2011)
Missed opportunity: Adelaide will wish they had’ve taken Zach Merrett in 2013. The Bombers star was picked up at No. 26 – three places after the talented but inconsistent Matt Crouch – and Merrett has turned into the classy midfielder the Crows now crave.
Brisbane
Despite having five top-10 picks since 2010, the Lions haven’t managed to unearth a star, and what’s worse, only two of the five remain at the club. The 2011 draft is a perfect example of how Brisbane have drafted reasonably well in the second and third rounds - but holding onto players has become the issue. Their top three selections from that draft (Billy Longer, Sam Docherty and Elliot Yeo) are now at other clubs.
Best pick-up: Elliot Yeo (Pick No. 30, 2011)
Biggest steal: Rhys Mathieson (Pick No. 39, 2015)
Biggest bust: Sam Mayes (Pick No. 8, 2012)
Missed opportunity: In 2014, the Lions gave up pick No. 5 in order to secure Dayne Beams – who has played just 18 games in two seasons – and that selection may have yielded a greater reward if they chose emerging Gold Coast big man Peter Wright (pick No. 8), who would pose a fearsome duo with 2015 No. 2 draft pick Josh Schache.
Carlton
First round selections have been Carlton’s Achilles heel since 2010. The Blues will be thrilled to have selected Patrick Cripps who has blossomed into one of the game’s elite clearance players, and Jacob Weitering who looks to be a 10-year star defender for the club. However, their other four first-round picks have been disappointing (Matthew Watson, Josh Bootsma, Troy Menzel and Blaine Boekhorst).
Best pick-up: Patrick Cripps (Pick No. 13, 2013)
Biggest steal: Ed Curnow (Pick No. 89, 2013 - originally selected as a rookie in 2011)
Biggest bust: Josh Bootsma (Pick No. 22, 2011)
Missed opportunity: The Blues had two picks early in the 2010 draft that failed to deliver with Matthew Watson (18) and Patrick McCarthy (34) combining for just 24 games. Victorian-born Luke Parker – who finished second in the 2016 Brownlow Medal – slipped through Carlton’s fingers and was snapped up with pick No. 40 by the Swans.
Collingwood
It’s been slim pickings at the draft since the Magpies won the 2010 premiership with just eight top-30 selections in six years. The picks of the crop would be father-son forward hopeful Darcy Moore, who looked set for a breakout season in 2016 before injuries took their toll, and promising ruckman Brodie Grundy (Pick No. 18, 2012).
Best pick-up: Darcy Moore (Pick No. 9, 2014)
Biggest steal: Alex Fasolo (Pick No. 45, 2010)
Biggest bust: Nathan Freeman (Pick No. 10, 2013)
Missed opportunity: It’s still very early but if the Magpies had their time over again at the 2014 draft, Jake Lever may be a lot higher up the priority list than Jordan De Goey. The Crows backman was selected with pick No. 14, nine places later than De Goey at pick No. 5, and already plays like a seasoned star. With defensive stocks low and small forwards aplenty, it’s only natural for Pies fans to dream about what may have been.
Essendon
It’s been a tumultuous few years for Essendon, which culminated in 34 past or present players serving a one-year suspension. Nevertheless the Bombers – who hold pick No. 1 in the 2016 draft – have managed to recruit half a dozen quality players through a mixture of father-son, rookie promotion and high selections.
Best pick-up: Dyson Heppell (Pick No. 8, 2010)
Biggest steal: Zach Merrett (Pick No. 26, 2013)
Biggest bust: Elliot Kavanagh (Pick No. 19, 2011)
Missed opportunity: On the surface, failing to select Tim Membrey may appear far from a disaster, but the 22-year-old, who has become a reliable forward for the Saints, could have formed a dynamic attacking partnership with Joe Daniher if selected by the Bombers instead of Jason Ashby in 2012 with pick No. 34.
Fremantle
Zero top-10 picks for the Dockers since 2010 has made drafting elite talent difficult, but they’ve compensated well by promoting a number of classy rookies. Fremantle can also take credit for one of the best steals of the decade in young ball-magnet and midfield star Lachie Neale.
Best pick-up: Lachie Neale (Pick No. 58, 2011)
Biggest steal: Lee Spurr (Pick No. 93, 2012 - originally selected as a rookie in 2011)
Biggest bust: Josh Simpson (Pick No. 17, 2012)
Missed opportunity: Shane Kersten made the move to the Dockers during the 2016 trade period, but the former Cat could have stayed in his home state if Fremantle picked him up in 2011. Instead, the Dockers went for Alex Forster – who played just one game – with pick No. 29, while Kersten slipped through to No. 34. Who knows, maybe they would have claimed that maiden flag if Mathew Pavlich had some support.
Geelong
The Cats have been one of the competition’s benchmark sides over the past decade, but ironically, drafting has not been a strong point. They’ve elected to surrender a number of their early picks in recent years in order to land some high-profile recruits, while their second and third round picks have resulted in plenty of busts.
Best pick-up: Cameron Guthrie (Pick No. 23, 2010)
Biggest steal: Mark Blicavs (Pick No. 54, 2011)
Biggest bust: Jarrad Jansen (Pick No. 36, 2013)
Missed opportunity: Geelong had an opportunity to add some dash to their aging backline in 2010 by picking up Shaun Atley. The Cats took Billie Smedts – who has managed just 11 games in the past three years – with pick No. 15, while Atley, picked up at No. 17, has been one of North Melbourne’s most consistent through his 132 games.
Gold Coast
Like cross-town rival Brisbane, retaining players is proving to be an issue for the Suns. Since joining the AFL, Gold Coast have had 11 top-10 picks, yet only six of those remain at the club. However, as some sort of consolation, they’ve managed to uncover some handy players deeper in the draft.
Best pick-up: Tom Lynch (Pick No. 11, 2010)
Biggest steal: Aaron Hall (Pick No. 7, 2011 - Pre-season draft)
Biggest bust: Jack Leslie (Pick No. 20, 2013)
Missed opportunity: Since being recruited by the Eagles in 2010, Andrew Gaff has established himself as one of the game’s premier outside runners. Gaff was taken at pick No. 4, after the Suns selected David Swallow, Harley Bennell and Sam Day with the draft’s first three selections. Did they make the right call?
Greater Western Sydney
With 17 top-10 draft picks in five years, the Giants were bound to strike gold, and strike gold they did. GWS have quickly become the envy of the competition after recruiting an abundance of young talent that look set to enter into one of the greatest dynasties the AFL has ever seen. The 2011 draft has proved to be a major winner for them, with many A-graders emerging.
Best pick-up: Stephen Coniglio (Pick No. 2, 2011)
Biggest steal: Zach Williams (Pick No. 95, 2013 - originally selected as a rookie in 2012)
Biggest bust: Jonathan O’Rourke (Pick No. 2, 2012)
Missed opportunity: It’s hard to fault the Giants’ drafting, but one player that could be seen as getting away would be Chad Wingard. At the 2011 draft GWS held the top five picks, but let the classy half-forward slip through to the Power at pick No. 6. Nevertheless, they could argue the correct decision was made with Wingard having family ties in South Australia.
Hawthorn
In recent years the Hawks have elected to build their team in the trade window as opposed to the national draft, and with three premierships since 2010, who can argue against that philosophy? This year was no exception with Hawthorn signing Jaeger O’Meara and Tom Mitchell among others, while their first pick is the lowly No. 88 which was received from West Coast in return for Sam Mitchell.
Best pick-up: Isaac Smith (Pick No. 19, 2010)
Biggest steal: Luke Breust (Pick No. 77, 2011 - originally selected as a rookie in 2009)
Biggest bust: Dayle Garlett (Pick No. 38, 2013)
Missed opportunity: The Hawks could have drafted exciting Swans defender Aliir Aliir in 2013, but opted against him for zero-gamer Dayle Garlett. Aliir was snapped up by Sydney with pick No. 44 and demonstrated great poise and skill in the back-half this year – an area Hawthorn would surely have loved to bolster.
Melbourne
The Demons can be relatively pleased with their recent drafting efforts. In the space of four years they managed to draft a key forward (Jesse Hogan), key defender (Tom McDonald), ruckman (Max Gawn) and quality on-baller (Jack Viney). However, a couple of botched first-round selections will have left a sour taste in fans’ mouths.
Best pick-up: Jesse Hogan (Pick No. 2, 2012 - GWS Mini-draft)
Biggest steal: Jack Viney (Pick No. 26, 2012)
Biggest bust: Jimmy Toumpas (Pick No. 4, 2012)
Missed opportunity: He can be hot and he can be cold, but one thing is certain; Jake Stringer is a star when on song. The Bulldogs premiership player – who was selected with pick No. 5 in 2012 – was snubbed by the Demons who opted for Toumpas with their pick No. 4. Just imagine a Jack Watts, Hogan and Stringer forward line.
North Melbourne
The Kangaroos have only debuted two of their eight draftees since 2014, which points towards a below par-effort at the draft considering six of those picks were in the top 36. What is pleasing from a North Melbourne perspective is, they’ve had some success in the back-half of the draft with Ben Brown, Sam Gibson and Majak Daw all being scooped up with bargain picks.
Best pick-up: Shaun Atley (Pick No. 17, 2010)
Biggest steal: Sam Gibson (Pick No. 76, 2012 - originally selected as a rookie in 2011)
Biggest bust: Taylor Garner (Pick No. 15, 2012)
Missed opportunity: Every single club could have drafted Lachie Neale in 2011, but the Kangaroos will see it as a bigger miss than most. The 23-year-old has become the most prolific ball accumulator in the league and can play inside and out. The Roos selected Tom Curran with pick No. 40 as Neale slipped down to pick No. 58.
Port Adelaide
Two top-10 picks since 2010 for the Power and they’ve managed to draft a pair of young stars in Chad Wingard and Ollie Wines. Port Adelaide have also fared well with rookie promotions in recent times, with Tom Jonas, Kane Mitchell and Sam Gray all getting drafted through this avenue.
Best pick-up: Chad Wingard (Pick No. 6, 2011)
Biggest steal: Aaron Young (Pick No. 36, 2010)
Biggest bust: Ben Newton (Pick No. 35, 2010)
Missed opportunity: If the Power could take pick No. 35 of the 2010 draft again you can bet they’d be eyeing Alex Fasolo. The Magpies small forward has played 81 matches and continues improving every year. A player like Fasolo, who would likely play as a permanent small forward, would allow Robbie Gray to spend more of his time in the midfield.
Richmond
Of the 25 players the Tigers have picked up in the national draft since 2010, only three are yet to debut but unfortunately they have a knack for drafting too many average footballers. Reece Conca, Jake Batchelor, Nick Vlaustin and Brandon Ellis are handy, but none of them are yet to establish themselves as stars of the competition.
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Best pick-up: Brandon Ellis (Pick No. 15, 2011)
Biggest steal: Sam Lloyd (Pick No. 66, 2013)
Biggest bust: Todd Elton (Pick No. 26, 2011)
Missed opportunity: Reliable Blues defender Sam Rowe could quite easily have become a Tiger in 2011. Richmond opted for Todd Elton – a four-game player – with pick No. 26, while Rowe, who could have formed a valuable defensive pairing with Alex Rance, was drafted with pick No. 44.
St Kilda
Despite 2012 being a horror draft for the Saints, overall they can be quite pleased with their recent selections. Patty McCartin was a welcome No. 1 pick, while Mav Weller, Jack Billings and Jade Gresham among others continue to improve each week. Strangely, the Saints have a very poor record with their second pick at the draft with only one player (Luke Dunstan) reaching 10 games.
Best pick-up: Jack Newnes (Pick No. 37, 2011)
Biggest steal: Maverick Weller (Pick No. 20, 2013 - Rookie draft)
Biggest bust: Spencer White (Pick No. 25, 2012)
Missed opportunity: Marcus Bontempelli, if he’s not already, looks set for a decade as one of the league’s finest players. The Saints preferred Jack Billings (Pick No. 3, 2013) over The Bont, a decision they could regret for a long, long time, despite the young Saint’s promise.
Sydney
Classy academy players have ensured the Swans continue adding depth to what’s already a quality outfit. Isaac Heeney (Pick No. 18, 2014) and Callum Mills (Pick No. 3, 2015) are close to A-grade players despite combining for just 60 games. However, aside from these two, Sydney haven’t been too efficient at the draft with early selections.
Best pick-up: Luke Parker (Pick No. 40, 2010)
Biggest steal: Dane Rampe (Pick No. 90, 2013 - originally selected as rookie in 2013)
Biggest bust: Jed Lamb (Pick No. 21, 2010)
Missed opportunity: There aren’t many holes in the Swans’ team, if any, but Cameron Guthrie could be seen as a player that got away from them. The Cats picked up the hard-running midfielder with Pick No. 23 in 2010, one place after the Swans chose Jed Lamb. It’s amazing to think they could have had even more midfield depth.
West Coast
The Eagles have not enjoyed a top-10 pick since securing Andrew Gaff in 2010 and it shows after some disappointing drafting. Only Mark Hutchings and Jeremy McGovern can boast 50 games or more, while 18 players (including rookie selections) failed or are yet to make their debut.
Best pick-up: Andrew Gaff (Pick No. 4, 2010)
Biggest steal: Jeremy McGovern (Pick No. 74, 2013 - original selected as a rookie in 2010)
Biggest bust: Murray Newman (Pick No. 23, 2011)
Missed opportunity: Brad Hill, who’s now at crosstown rival Fremantle, could easily have made his way onto the Eagles’ list had he been selected with either picks No. 23 or 28 in 2011. The three-time premiership player would have added some much needed midfield pace, but Instead West Coast drafted Murray Newman and Fraser McInnes - a pair that combined for just 15 games.
Western Bulldogs
Has there been a side that’s drafted better since 2010? The Western bulldogs have nailed all of their early selections in recent years in what’s proved the catalyst in breaking a 62-year premiership drought. Some superb father-son selections in Mitch Wallis, Tom Liberatore and Lachie Hunter have only helped strengthen a rugged and well-balanced side.
Best pick-up: Marcus Bontempelli (Pick No. 4, 2013)
Biggest steal: Luke Dahlhaus (Pick No. 70, 2011 - originally selected as a rookie in 2010)
Biggest bust: Matthew Fuller (Pick No. 42, 2013)
Missed opportunity: It’s hard to knock the Bulldogs’ drafting since 2010, but one player they could easily have opted against would be Fuller in 2013. With Ben Brown and James Sicily still up for grabs, the Dogs missed an opportunity to add to their forward stocks. But, hey, it didn’t affect them too badly.
Townsend would be a good shout for a lot of clubs. GC really should have got him with Ellis and Miles
It’s always hard to judge whether the pick was good or bad. The Morgan one at the time seemed like it for our model but in hindsight we probably should have seen the signs.
The same could be said of Zerrett the opposite way, whilst he was around the mark he has proved to be an inspired selection make all other spect jobs 10-15 above seem a failure.
Your never going to get them all rights, as a rule I’d rather we stuff the 25-40 picks and nail the top tens.
If we drafted Redman as depth at rebounding half back, we probably shouldn’t have played him as a half forward for 18 months after drafting him.
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How does Jerrett being a miss have anything to do with Jenkins? And how is he high risk high reward?
Personally I thought he showed a bit and would lay more blame there on development than drafting.
If a player is considered better, why would you skip them just because the risk is higher? It should be a balance between upside, certainty, needs and players remaining at every pick.
The fact one of the rookies did well is hardly evidence of anything.
How does the fact we couldn’t lure players have any effect?
So the draft was fine, but you’re whining because we didn’t take a player(s) you wanted and focussing on the one earlyish fail.
Not sure I’d say Jerret is a miss.
Anpick in the 30’s played more than 50 games is a better return than most.
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We basically smashed that draft bar one pick
I agree. Who gives a rats if Morgan didn’t work out as hoped. Pretty obvious they doing a very good job in general.
Kudos should be given not whining because other clubs would be over the moon with that return. Missing on picks happens plenty.
He had very strong athletic attributes, but had been injury prone so a higher risk. So be it.
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Ironically, I’d be saying the second round is exactly when you should be taking upside risks. Nowadays, you want a role player between DFA and late-pick trades you can get those guys cheaply. What isn’t cheap is the elite players. So you should be focusing on how you can get those players out of the draft. If a safe option projects to be a high (but not elite) level, then you would consider them. But aim for the bleachers early in the draft, and take safe limited options late.
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There’s misses, and bad misses. If you take a guy where other clubs would’ve taken him, and he doesn’t pan out, it’s not great but it’s arguable/defensible.
Jerrett didn’t quite work out, but he wasn’t far off, and he was always a 20-50 pick.
Likewise Kav, in that ■■■■■■■■ of a draft, a few other clubs were keen to roll the dice, even though he didn’t make it.
IMO Morgan and Stein were the only two we really reached on, and really missed.
Also worth pointing out the flipside, the nobodies we’ve drafted who’ve come up big - Hooker, Bellcho, Zerrett was meant to be no more than a nifty little forward flanker. Remember how ■■■■■■ we were when we got McNernan??
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Yep agree.
Jerret had a lot of tools and played some decent footy. Just not quite good enough to be a best 22 footballer. Which is ok, in my mind that’s not a draft failure it’s pretty standard across the board.
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Jackets picked up Zach Merrett at 26, Fantasia at 55, and Ambrose in the rookie draft in 2013, the year we lost our draft picks because of the Saga. That’s coming up big when you’ve been dealt a rubbish hand.
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I’ve put the average games played by each of those draft picks beside each player. So for pick 19, you would expect the average career to be 90 games. There is a bit of variation due to sample size – a few good players can skew things, (eg, pick 29 has had better returns historically than pick 20) but near enough for this analysis.
These I’d consider busts:
19 Kavanagh 90
20 Hislop 70
29 Morgan 82
31 Steinberg 61
33 Anthony Long 62
34 Ashby 59
These I’d consider good picks, all played above average games for that pick, and 5 of the 8 are still on AFL lists.
19 Dempsey 90
23 Pears 55
23 Zaharakis 55
24 Carlisle 74
26 Colyer 66
26 Zach Merrett 66
36 Davey 50
42 Houli 55
Jackson at pick 31 is pretty spot on – played 56 games against an AFL average of 61 for that pick. I agree with Ants, he showed a lot early and then stagnated and regressed. A player development issue, rather than a talent identification issue in my opinion.
31 Jackson Merrett 61
And these are TBA, although in general look promising:
20 Laverde 70
22 Ridley 45
30 Redman 58
31 Begley 61
42 Mutch 55
So, 6 definite busts, 8 definite wins, and Jackson who is spot on average.
The AFL average for picks in this area to play more than 50 games is around 50%. So, of the players in question we are marginally ahead of average. As SplitRound suggests, the 5 TBA’s could sway it either way.
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Thanks @goaloss
Any chance of the median for those picks, and the upper and lower quartiles? As you say, the mean can get skewed by a 300 game player (and will also be screwed by players who are still playing)
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