Fun stats here:
https://www.draftguru.com.au/analysis/pick-value-comparison
and averages per pick:
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Do you seriously need that explained?
No question about that. Superb drafting.
Not whining at all, in fact I pointed out that Brown, Hartley & Walla late in that draft was outstanding drafting. Redman will be a player & Francis and Parish speak for themselves. Morgan was one of five players we were considering, the other four turned out much better players. That’s not me whining because I wanted one of those players, I know they were the players we were considering at that pick. We went the wrong pick. He was a gamble and we lost. Simple.
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Thanks. Interesting data there.
Pick 30-50. Average games 78, but median games 39, so half the players selected with that range of picks play less than 39 games. Shows that the average gives a false understanding in this case.
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Yeah we shouldn’t have.
But as Redman himself has said, almost all his underage footy was as a back.
It’s others (including on here) that saw him as a forward
I’d refer you over to the Pick 34 thread, where I posted a list of decent to good players chosen between 30 to 50 from 2010-16.
Assume anyone I left out was a dud. (Even if they scrabbled a few games)
You’ll see the actual hit rate varies each year, but is much less than 50%.
Even in the best years there were only about 8 decent & above players chosen - other years only 5 or so.
Just noticed the “picks needed to get a sub 10 game player” column. Basically says 20% of 11-20, and 25% of 21-30, and increasing from there don’t get to 10 games.
1/3 of 31-50 don’t even play 10 games, so yes!
You only need 1 or 2 players to get to 200 games to really skew the average.
To be realistic about that stat, generally clubs give a lot more chances to early picks. A 4th round guy who’s doing nothing much gets cut without too much fanfare and nobody cares, a first rounder at the same performance levels gets excuses made for him. “He’s got talent, he just needs time” or “He’s the sort of player who’ll look better in the seniors than the VFL” or whatever. And maybe once he does eventually get cut some other club will pick him up based on his u18 performances and promise.
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More commonly known as the Myers effect.
Agreed. The “picks needed to get a 100/200 gamer” should weed that out to an extent.
Yes.
The list management had no choice over Jenkins, he wanted out, and because he’d only played VFL as a rookie had no value. If you seriously believe Jenkins reflects of whether or not Jerrett was a success, then you seem to be saying we should have got more from him. Or that somehow the return from that pick (regardless of where it was) would be measured against how good Jenkins was.
Which is stupid.
The trade and the drafting are two separate transactions, to consider how successful a pick was for one based on the other is silly.
ALL picks are gambles. The fact one turns out right or not, is, on its own not proof of anything. You could flip a coin 1 time and if it gets heads, that’s not proof its biased. There is a probability involved and the outcome of a sample of 1 proves nothing. You need to take a broader sample size.
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Jon O Rourke is a 10000000 times better example
Pick 2
6 years on 2 AFL lists
21 games
Myers isn’t quite what you want from pick 6 - I’d argue largely due to the 2-3 years of development he effectively lost due to injury - but he can play.
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I was going for the lolz.
But Yeah o’rouke, Tambling or Toumpas etc are the classics.
Isn’t quite what you’d want??? Considering he was taken with pick 6 David’s career has been pretty close to a miracle.
At the time, Jerrett had nothing to do with losing Jenkins. It came down to Dyson vs Jenkins in the end. The club gave One Last One Year Contract to Dyson, but that meant there wasn’t any spare senior list spots available. We were certainly intending to keep Jenkins around as a rookie, but when Adelaide came calling offering him a senior list spot, we couldn’t match their bid.
Mind you, we didn’t miss out on much in that draft to be honest. Amazingly weak, both in hindsight and at the time. Neale and Brad Hill the only obvious chances we missed there. Pretty sure i wanted either Mitch Grigg (who’ll be picked up again this year after being delisted by the Crows a while back) or Alex Woodward (who went to the Hawks but did 3 ACLs and never got to show what he could do.)
Edit: actually, holy crap, have a look back at the 2011 draft. It was dire. Awful. There’s maybe half a dozen legit good players from the entire batch. Coniglio, Dev Smith, Mitchell, Haynes, Greene, Adams, Docherty. If lightning struck literally everyone else from that draft, you probably wouldn’t even notice.
Alex Woodward did end up blocking that pass that Yeo marked and goaled from, so he’s got “being a Collingwood scapegoat” to his credit.