Fark Carlton
Last time they had pick 19 it was Boekhorst
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That’s all very well — but remind me, who did that shitstain of a club beat last year ?
Gold coast?
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Blues have had enough of Pick 1s…
Blues-Crows bombshell trade: Will the gamble pay off?
Nov 22, 2018 10:57PM
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Eyebrows raised as historic live trades shake up draft
Matt Thompson speaks to key clubs at Draft HQ
We rated him (Liam Stocker) very highly
Stephen Silvagni
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STEPHEN Silvagni was doing his best to channel his inner Billy Beane at Marvel Stadium.
While the Carlton list manager’s decision to give up a future first-round draft selection to Adelaide for pick No.19 shocked many on Thursday night, the deal was all about the maths – much like many of Beane’s own moves, made as general manager of baseball franchise the Oakland Athletics and portrayed famously by Brad Pitt in the movie ‘Moneyball’.
On face value, the trade appears ultra-risky; Carlton has failed to finish outside the bottom six in four consecutive seasons, while Adelaide remains in its premiership window despite a rocky 2018 campaign where the Crows missed the finals altogether.
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Needless to say, it was a bold play.
But crunch the numbers and the pick swap looks one worth making for a team on the rise.
In addition to receiving the pick that saw Carlton nab Liam Stocker, the Blues also managed to secure Adelaide’s 2019 first-round selection to accompany the midfielder at Ikon Park.
Essentially, the trade was a two-for-one in terms of first-round draft picks.
Of course, the obvious risk is that Carlton endures another season to forget in 2019. A bottom-place finish would obviously leave them without the coveted pick No.1.
But based on the AFL’s Draft Value Index (DVI), the Blues will accrue more value from the deal should it finish 14th or above next year – regardless of the Crows’ fortunes.
Even if Adelaide wins the flag – which is arguably a bigger ‘if’ than Carlton finishing 14th on the ladder – the Blues will have gained more DVI points than they will lose from the trade.
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Under this hypothetical, the cumulative total of this year’s pick No.19 and next year’s pick No.18 is 1933 DVI points. The total value of next year’s pick No.5 – should the Blues finish 14th – is just 1878 DVI points.
From a PR perspective, losing a top pick is never a good look. However, Carlton isn’t banking on losing a top pick, it’s banking on being one of the AFL’s big improvers in 2019.
That confidence in the club’s ability to improve next year was not only reflected in the trade itself, but also in Silvagni when asked about the prospect of giving up an early pick next year.
“What happens if we finish higher than them?” he asked, after being quizzed on the potential gap between the two clubs’ picks.
The Blues have completed what they believe was ‘phase one’ of the club’s long-awaited rebuild. Three years, three drafts. Now, it’s onto ‘phase two’.
A NAB AFL Trade Period that saw the club secure the likes of Mitch McGovern, Alex Fasolo, Will Setterfield and Nic Newman was all part of a plan to recruit more mature-aged talent.
Patrick Cripps, Sam Docherty and Charlie Curnow – among others – are all entering their prime, while the newly-minted pick No.1 Sam Walsh will add to a developing midfield group.
Brendon Bolton and co. are cautiously optimistic of a rise up the ladder next season.
Realistically, the Blues are still likely to finish below the Crows in 2019. They wouldn’t want to finish much more than six-to-eight spots back on their new rivals.
But for a club that rated Stocker highly, the deal looks a risk worth taking.
Having missed the NAB AFL Under 18s Championships with a broken jaw, Stocker enjoyed an impressive end to the TAC Cup season with the Dragons. He averaged 22 disposals and five clearances per game, winning the Morrish Medal for best player in the competition.
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The logic of trading the pick can’t be explained on the basis of the points system. We won’t actually know how good this deal is for some time. But if Fark Carlton are bottom 4 next (which is most likely given how putrid they were this year) then the wolves will be out for SOS.
His most significant role to date
I genuinely think that F*ck-Carlton believe they are entering finals contention next year.
Grab the pop-corn… and watch Bolton get sacked after round 6.
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They don’t play us until round 11 so he doesn’t have us to save him/buy him time.
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So… they have done the usual Fark Carlton thing - need KP players, draft mids??
Well to be fair, to Bolton, Walla looks like a KP player.
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I’d like to see him make it to about round 16. By that time they’ll be so far off the pace that they won’t make finals even if they win all remaining games.
Unfortunately they do have a lot of talent on their list. With a good coach they would improve substantially.
Fark them.
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Tomas Bugg will add some much needed thuggery and hardness to their squad.
Carlton fans think SOS is the greatest recruiter in history. In his watch they’ve stayed down the bottom few, drafted both his sons, recruited a bunch of GWS hacks that have been mostly delisted (with one returning from pre-season overweight) and failed to recruit anyone of note outside of McGovern despite throwing the kitchen sink in. May the lord continue to bless this ungodly shiteness.
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This is the exact reason why rewarding mediocrity is wrong.
Rewarding mediocrity is the Australian way.
See, for example, Scott Morrison, Gill the Dill, etc etc.
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Will be interesting.
West Coast was bottom 4 according to most at the start of last season…
Not sure where you are getting that from. They won a final in 2017. I most most people with half an idea about footy would have had them in the 8 again. Mitchell, Pridis and Petrie were not key players by the end of 2017 and Nic Nat was returning from a knee.
If I can only hope for one thing. SOS continues in his current role and continues to butcher the list.
Fark Carlton
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