Federal Budget 2015

General Gibberish Forums The nickyd News Room
1

Discuss.

From what I can tell seems to be a very soft budget which doesn’t really stem the flow of spending.

Clear reversal in tone and position since the last budget when they were pushing for aggressive measures and selling the message of a budget emergency. Obviously they found it very difficult to pass much through the senate and failed to convince the public that the cuts were in the nation’s best interests. This time around they’ve gone for a budget that people should find a lot easier to stomach.

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The cuts to maternity leave is pretty much the only thing I know about the budget, and it's insane.

Not all of it, the double dipping is a bit over the top and needed to be looked at. But yeah, it is a complete reversal of how Howard saw ML.

One of the ramifications of this will be a decrease in already low breastfeeding in the first 12 months of a childs life because mothers will go back to work sooner.

But they're still going to get maternity leave - just not two lots of it.

Currently employers who offer it offer 6-12 weeks paid leave. The government offers another 18. For a lot of families can’t afford one parent not to be working. This means a parent (usually the mother but not always) to go back to work 18 weeks earlier. 18 weeks is huge in babies life and a really important bonding time.

But those people can still claim the baby bonus which has a reasonably high threshold of 75k over 6 months.

If families on more than 150k a year cannot survive without the $12k paid parental leave then they need to reassess their family budget.

If you claim parental leave from the government you don’t get a baby bonus.

Correct. You either get one or the other.
But again if you earn less than 75k in 6 months (which equates to 150k pa) then you will get the baby bonus anyway.

So lower income earners are still protected.

You seem well across the policy detail DT. It's almost as if you're a liberal staffer. You use their language as well (double dipping) and defend the liberal position no matter what it is. I hope you post on personal time since government staffers are paid with tax dollars.
3
The hockey storm in a teacup is just the latest weekly blowup for the outrage class to get up in arms about. Every week people have to find something new to vent about. I mean, seriously, the housing market is what it is. If you want to live near the city in a beautiful area of the country be prepared to sacrifice and work hard for it. Wouldn't have thought there is anything particularly novel and earth shattering in that pronouncement.

Always been the same, and the “housing” bubble has been going to explode since at least 1974 in my experience. I would have liked to buy my first home in Toorak, but had to be a “renovators delight” in Ascot Vale.

And then built a house way way out in the sticks in Diamond Creek; my Daughter just built one in South Morang, hundreds building homes here in Bacchus Marsh. Nothing much has changed


That sort of thinking was real common everywhere prior to about 2007. “Nothing’s actually going to happen”

So what has changed ?

It happened. You may have heard of it if you paid attention to SBS.

#outoftouch

4
The hockey storm in a teacup is just the latest weekly blowup for the outrage class to get up in arms about. Every week people have to find something new to vent about. I mean, seriously, the housing market is what it is. If you want to live near the city in a beautiful area of the country be prepared to sacrifice and work hard for it. Wouldn't have thought there is anything particularly novel and earth shattering in that pronouncement.

Always been the same, and the “housing” bubble has been going to explode since at least 1974 in my experience. I would have liked to buy my first home in Toorak, but had to be a “renovators delight” in Ascot Vale.

And then built a house way way out in the sticks in Diamond Creek; my Daughter just built one in South Morang, hundreds building homes here in Bacchus Marsh. Nothing much has changed


That sort of thinking was real common everywhere prior to about 2007. “Nothing’s actually going to happen”

So what has changed ?

It happened. You may have heard of it if you paid attention to SBS.

5
The hockey storm in a teacup is just the latest weekly blowup for the outrage class to get up in arms about. Every week people have to find something new to vent about. I mean, seriously, the housing market is what it is. If you want to live near the city in a beautiful area of the country be prepared to sacrifice and work hard for it. Wouldn't have thought there is anything particularly novel and earth shattering in that pronouncement.
I'm far more concerned by the whole wind farm fiasco to be honest
6
The buck stops with... Someone else. Labor probably. I'll think of it soon. Definitely not me. I'm only the treasurer.

He’s a born-rich, north shore son of a realtor. And it shows. $10M or more of property investments. He instinctively thinks with his own pockets first before engaging his brain.

Housing affordability compared to wages has gone up like 100% in the last 15 years, since they dropped CGT on your primary residence. So getting a good job doesn’t help - you need twice as much coming in as you did 15 years ago. Rents aren’t going up accordingly, or even close - so people are only in it for the buy and sell.
Clearly not sustainable. Clearly a bubble. And bubbles burst.
There clearly needs to be some change to CGT or negative gearing or both. Which will trigger its own downturn. But it has to happen. A little downturn is better than a total collapse.

Those changes won’t happen with these guys at the wheel. Not confident it will with labor either.

The aussie dollar is expected to drop below 70c US. Not disputing that there is a housing bubble but I can’t see the bubble bursting anytime soon with so much foreign investment pushing things along.

That's not a better scenario. The bigger the bubble the bigger the pop.
7

How come the solar panels for my hot water system on my old house in Darwin are over 20 years old & still going strong?

It’s the tanks that need replacing, not the solar panels.

8

Rich getting Richer, Poor not Keeping Up…now there’s a surprise (not).

The only surprise there is that ACOSS wasted funds on a study that came up with results that the majority of the population already knew instinctively.

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Rich getting richer, wealth gap increasing: ACOSS report
AM
By Will Ockenden

Updated about 2 hours ago

The peak welfare lobby group says inequality between the richest and poorest has grown alongside the nation’s run of nearly a quarter of a century without recession.

An Australian Council of Social Service (ACOSS) study has found that the richest 20 per cent now earn around five times as much as those in the bottom 20 per cent.

“Whilst we are nowhere near yet where, for example, the United States is in terms of the divide in the community, we are clearly heading in the wrong direction,” said Dr Cassandra Goldie, the chief executive of the Australian Council of Social Service, which published the report.

“We’ve had a big trend here in terms of disproportionate growth of income by people at the top end compared to those at the bottom.”

The ACOSS report, titled A Nation Divided, finds that, when compared to the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), inequality in Australia is higher than the average.

While strong employment growth over the last few decades has seen real wages go up, on average, by 50 per cent, most of that has gone to the top 10 per cent.

The report finds that group of people saw their pay packets rise 72 per cent.

That is compared to a 16 per cent rise for the bottom 10 per cent.

“We are seeing here a significant real growth in the overall income for people at the top at the expense of people on the bottom,” said Dr Goldie.

"This is a problem both socially but also, importantly, economically as the IMF (International Monetary Fund) has alerted us to, with an important report just last week, that if we’re serious about economic growth, concentration of income and wealth in the top is bad for the economy.

“Wages growth for people on the bottom has largely been through greater participation in work, working longer hours, but at the top it’s been a straight-up increase in pay - so those generous bonuses, very well known in the IT and financing sectors.”

Aged, non-English speakers and smaller states poorer

The people most likely to find themselves at the bottom are over the age of 65, non-English speaking or those reliant on government payments.

Those outside the capital cities, and in Tasmania and South Australia, are also likely to be down the bottom.

Dr Goldie said governments right across the country need to focus on inequality as a top concern.

“The first priority is to make sure that people are paying their fair share of tax,” she argued.

Dr Goldie has repeated ACOSS’s calls for reform of capital gains tax discounts, negative gearing and superannuation tax concessions.

“We have had this significant growth in wealth driven by both increases in property prices and also the investment classes,” she explained.

“We know that structures like negative gearing, capital gains arrangements, those superannuation tax concessions, the tax loopholes that enable people to structure their financial arrangements at the higher end to minimise their effective tax into the general revenue, is a big problem for us.”

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http://www.pimco.com.au/EN/Insights/Pages/A-Look-at-Rising-Household-Debt-in-Australia-and-the-Implications-for-Policy.aspx

(pimco is a fund manager that lends to our big 4s)

Great article, giving a picture of where we are. Hope the think tank is sitting up and reading

We found that households’ decision to incur debt is dominated by the cost of debt (the mortgage rate) and recent asset price appreciation

That is a scary finding

Liked that article. Thanks for posting it.

The market is now moving around this. All the majors have changed their lending policies around investment loans to limit the exposure within their lending portfolio.

So despite the government with head is sand approach, the market is forcing change.

11
The hockey storm in a teacup is just the latest weekly blowup for the outrage class to get up in arms about. Every week people have to find something new to vent about. I mean, seriously, the housing market is what it is. If you want to live near the city in a beautiful area of the country be prepared to sacrifice and work hard for it. Wouldn't have thought there is anything particularly novel and earth shattering in that pronouncement.

Always been the same, and the “housing” bubble has been going to explode since at least 1974 in my experience. I would have liked to buy my first home in Toorak, but had to be a “renovators delight” in Ascot Vale.

And then built a house way way out in the sticks in Diamond Creek; my Daughter just built one in South Morang, hundreds building homes here in Bacchus Marsh. Nothing much has changed

12

The hockey storm in a teacup is just the latest weekly blowup for the outrage class to get up in arms about. Every week people have to find something new to vent about. I mean, seriously, the housing market is what it is. If you want to live near the city in a beautiful area of the country be prepared to sacrifice and work hard for it. Wouldn’t have thought there is anything particularly novel and earth shattering in that pronouncement.

13

You don’t get enough sunshine over there anyway.

Perth. Now that’s sunshine.

14

The buck stops with… Someone else. Labor probably. I’ll think of it soon. Definitely not me. I’m only the treasurer.

He’s a born-rich, north shore son of a realtor. And it shows. $10M or more of property investments. He instinctively thinks with his own pockets first before engaging his brain.

Housing affordability compared to wages has gone up like 100% in the last 15 years, since they dropped CGT on your primary residence. So getting a good job doesn’t help - you need twice as much coming in as you did 15 years ago. Rents aren’t going up accordingly, or even close - so people are only in it for the buy and sell.
Clearly not sustainable. Clearly a bubble. And bubbles burst.
There clearly needs to be some change to CGT or negative gearing or both. Which will trigger its own downturn. But it has to happen. A little downturn is better than a total collapse.

Those changes won’t happen with these guys at the wheel. Not confident it will with labor either.

15

Not sure I can trust TVS when they can’t even install panels on their on own branded football facility. How odd is that?

16
The hockey storm in a teacup is just the latest weekly blowup for the outrage class to get up in arms about. Every week people have to find something new to vent about. I mean, seriously, the housing market is what it is. If you want to live near the city in a beautiful area of the country be prepared to sacrifice and work hard for it. Wouldn't have thought there is anything particularly novel and earth shattering in that pronouncement.
I'm far more concerned by the whole wind farm fiasco to be honest

I reckon Ben that the renewable energy industry is the greatest scam of all time.

Instead of Government and Community recognizing and agreeing on the need to rid ourselves of fossil fuels, we allow private industry to take over and subsidies them with millions of tax dollars.

So what we have in wind and solar are commercial solutions that suit the industry profit motive, but do little in bringing down carbon levels and just add to the consumers costs.

Now I do have ambitions to rule the planet, and I would make renewable energy mandatory for all buildings, and ensure the best engineered solutions were used all controlled by Government.

I hate the wind industry and know they are greedy, unscrupulous crooks, and I also know that most of the solar panels on our roofs will need replacing in the next 5 years. It is a disaster waiting to happen.


Your last two lines are out and out rubbish. Especially the guff about the solar panels. Either you are taking the ■■■■ or you are seriously demented. There is no middle ground.

See you in 2020 or so when someone is making a killing with the solar panel replacement market.

■■■■ man I don’t know where you have been getting your panels from, my folks got theirs from True Value last year and it had a 25 year warranty, full replacement of their production falls my anymore than .7% year on year so they need to be producing at 83% at the end of the warrenty period or full replacement.

The future with them here is what Musks mob is doing in the U.S. Leased pannels, like a mobile phone plan where the cost is subsidised and you just make a payment every month, can upgrade them as the tech improves, every 5 years

The private sector comment is a bit rich, there are sharks in every industry but in order for renewables to have any traction there had to be private sector investment to drive prices down, holy crap if it was left to government to solely run the role out and there was no money to be made we would still be paying 60 grand for a 5kw system, and it would be costing the tax payers 4 times more than it does now.

Compatition drives price, come on man, you know that

17
Recently heard of a friend of a friend who recently purchased a $385,000 property to live in...couple and 2 kids 1 income approx 100K and partner works part time but just had bub no 2.

They wanted to keep their old house and rent it out worth approx $300,000 (still owed money on this house)

The bank wouldn’t lend them enough money to finance the purchase so, they ended up having to borrow $50,000 of each of their parents to facilitate this.

At the moment they are paying 2 mortgages as the rental isn’t being rented yet.

Is it more important to have what you want in the present or plan for the future where you are not still making loan repayments then and can have a better quality of life with more disposable income.

At a glance, assuming the bank wanted 80% LVR (loan to value ratio) means they wanted to borrow $548,000 but with the additional $100k from their parents actually owe all up $648,000. That would mean on approximately a 5% interest rate minimum repayments of $41,743.20 per annum for 30 years. On $100k wages the net take home is $73,012 (assuming no other deductions) leaving the family $31,268.80 to live off per year as the worse case scenario (I didn’t take into account the rental property as it’s not earning income).

It’s tight and you wouldn’t want the partner working to fall over at any time. Personally I don’t like having debt. It’s a personal thing but I like having money in the bank not owing the bank money. Whether or not to do the above is down to the individual.

18

Recently heard of a friend of a friend who recently purchased a $385,000 property to live in…couple and 2 kids 1 income approx 100K and partner works part time but just had bub no 2.

They wanted to keep their old house and rent it out worth approx $300,000 (still owed money on this house)

The bank wouldnt lend them enough money to finance the purchase so, they ended up having to borrow $50,000 of each of their parents to facilitate this.

At the moment they are paying 2 mortgages as the rental isnt being rented yet.

Is it more important to have what you want in the present or plan for the future where you are not still making loan repayments then and can have a better quality of life with more disposable income.

19
The hockey storm in a teacup is just the latest weekly blowup for the outrage class to get up in arms about. Every week people have to find something new to vent about. I mean, seriously, the housing market is what it is. If you want to live near the city in a beautiful area of the country be prepared to sacrifice and work hard for it. Wouldn't have thought there is anything particularly novel and earth shattering in that pronouncement.
I'm far more concerned by the whole wind farm fiasco to be honest

I reckon Ben that the renewable energy industry is the greatest scam of all time.

Instead of Government and Community recognizing and agreeing on the need to rid ourselves of fossil fuels, we allow private industry to take over and subsidies them with millions of tax dollars.

So what we have in wind and solar are commercial solutions that suit the industry profit motive, but do little in bringing down carbon levels and just add to the consumers costs.

Now I do have ambitions to rule the planet, and I would make renewable energy mandatory for all buildings, and ensure the best engineered solutions were used all controlled by Government.

I hate the wind industry and know they are greedy, unscrupulous crooks, and I also know that most of the solar panels on our roofs will need replacing in the next 5 years. It is a disaster waiting to happen.


Your last two lines are out and out rubbish. Especially the guff about the solar panels. Either you are taking the ■■■■ or you are seriously demented. There is no middle ground.

See you in 2020 or so when someone is making a killing with the solar panel replacement market.

20

(pimco is a fund manager that lends to our big 4s)

Great article, giving a picture of where we are. Hope the think tank is sitting up and reading

We found that households’ decision to incur debt is dominated by the cost of debt (the mortgage rate) and recent asset price appreciation

That is a scary finding