So here is the ladder as it stands. We are sitting in a dismal 11th (4 wins) – equal on points with Carlton (Oh…the shame).
The big question is will we make the eight?
I guess we‘d like to think we can turn our season around and make the finals. But what will it take?
Well, we‘d have to win 9 out of the last 13 games to get to 13 wins. Can we do that? Of the 13 games 4 are against teams currently in the bottom five on the ladder and 4 are against teams currently in the top 5. The other 5 games are against teams that are mid table and include Collingwood, Adelaide and West Coast and could go either way. It‘s possible that we win the 9 games.
However us winning nine games is only half the story. A team already in the top 8 will have to drop out and we‘ll have to leap-frog the teams in 9th and 10th.
So whats the story for those teams from here on in.
Teams in the eight to drop out
Fremantle (5 wins). They have a pretty good run home. They only have to play 3 games against teams currently in the top 5 (these are all at the end of the season) but play 7 games against teams in the bottom 5. Freo will not be dropping out of the top eight.
North Melb (5 wins). They have a better run home than Freo. They only have to play 2 games against teams currently in the top 5 and 6 games against teams in the bottom 5. There other games are also on the easy side – Adelaide x 2, Carlton and West Coast and Richmond. Unless they implode, North will not be dropping out of the top eight either I don‘t think.
GCS (7 wins). I‘ve included them here because it will be interesting to see if they can maintain their current form. They have tough run home - They have to play 4 games against teams currently in the top 5 and 3 games against teams in the bottom 5. Plus some of the other tougher teams. I think they can stay in the top 8.
Teams above us
West Coast (4 wins). They have to play 4 games against teams currently in the top 5 and 3 games against teams in the bottom 5. A slightly tougher run home than us.
Adelaide (4 wins). They have to play 3 games against teams currently in the top 5 and 3 games against teams in the bottom 5.
I think it will be a raffle who wins the most games from here on in between us, WC and Adelaide. If we play well we can get ahead of them.
I don‘t think, however, that any of the teams currently in the top 8 will drop out.
So overall, based on this very simplistic analysis, I doubt we‘ll make finals from here. To do so we'll have to show a major change in form and win most of our games as well as relying on currently in-form teams with easy runs home slipping out of the top eight.
My first thought is you don‘t need 13 wins to make it (with the notable exception of 2012, when Port+Foots+Melb+GC+GWS inflated everyone else by having 5 or less wins). With 13 games to go, our future is almost entirely in our own hands. Worry about other teams simultaneously falling over later. P.S. Fark Carlton, even if they just did us a favour.
We are in a fierce battle with the Kangaroos, West coast, Adelaide and Carlton, for the right to be the insignificant finalist who gets spanked in the first elimination final.
l think this thread is a little bit premature. l remember Hird's attitude at a time like this. He always thought the team could make the finals, until it was mathematically impossible. That is good enough for me,
I think we are a good chance to win 9 more, it is an upset type of year which will rely on who has less injuries to key players.
We are just starting to get a balanced team back on the park, and if they can stay on there and play into some form, which the draw is also finally starting to allow, the length of the breaks between games start to flow in our favour and when we are fit and fresh we can beat anyone.
Have some faith, we can do it. Bomber can help turn it around, as he said, the first 6 weeks were always going to be the hardest and we have only lost against the swans since then, and they have just got their best combo (probably best in league) up and running, and who were a day fresher than us.
If we have just a bit of luck with Winders, Chappy, staying on the park. Dempsey, Melksham, Bellchambers and Ambrose back and playing back into form, it will also make it easier for Buckets and Joe to gel as a forward combo, although I do like the mobility playing only one specialist ruck provides. Hopefully the zip Jake showed in the last quarter was not fleeting.
If we lose against Richmond we won't make it. If we win I will gain some faith that we can.
If we don't make finals and win a final I will lose the plot
Last year Carlton didn't make finals and won a final...
Does that count?
As I am an optimist I have us scraping into the 8. but we need to win 13 games and have a good % or win 14 games to be certain of a spot. As I had Essendon on 13 wins and only % better than 9th who had 13 wins but worse %
Usually I overestimate where Essendon will finish tho, which makes me worried we may miss finals. I.e last year I was sure we would be top 4.
This was all done on the ladder predictor, and resulted in the following matches
week 1
Elimination Final versus Fremenatle in Fremantle
week 2
Semi final vs Port Adelaide at Adelaide oval.
week 3
Prelim final vs Hawks MCG
week 4
vs Swans
so even if me make the finals the best we can hope for is probably one win.
Must win the next four in a row to make it. Richmond, GWS, Melbourne, Adelaide at Etihad. ■■■■■■ hell - if we can't do this, we don't deserve to make the finals. So the next month will determine it either way...
Win all four, and I think we'll end up EIGHTH with 13 wins, and looking like a trip to Perth to play Freo OR the Pies at the G.
Next four wins would be realistic if we play to our best
However we arent in form and we have this ASADA **** still hanging over our heads, if show cause notices come the players minds will be elsewhere for at least two weeks until it gets to ADRVP (and that'd be minimum time frame). If it went further than that in t terms off AAT/ court then season written off.
I cant see us making finals to be honest, and if we do it'll be by the skin of our teeth.
