Finals - Can we make them?

I don't think 13 gets you in anymore with 18 teams.

 

I think you need 14.

I think Richmond is a must win, and the next four are obviously vital.

 

If we do make the finals, I believe we will have found form and probably knocked off one of the more fancied teams above us in the process.

 

It all comes down to the desire of the players. The break after Sydney couldn't have come at a worst time, we need to take our new found competitiveness (for whatever that was worth) for a run against and depleted Tigers. Now Jack is up and firing, the tigers are a little happier, and we're coming off the bye. I think our form will turn around, but will still be a little patchy and we will just scrape into 8th.

Ok, things we have going for us:

 

 - Our list is pretty good. Guys like Chappy, Goddard, Watson are all proven match winners, We have guys who can take a mark, a solid defense, and there's quite a bit of experience in 17 or so of our best 22. The rest are there for development purposes (Joe, Ambrose, Merrets, Aylett ,et al).

 

 - We can play very good, intense football, when we play our natural game. We have been treating games as praccy matches so far this season, more focussed on playiing a preffered style than getting the 4 points. I think if we start focussing on just winning games we will automatically improve our chances.

 

 - Ladder-wise, we aren't THAT far off the pace. If we can win the next 2 matches we will be on the good side of the ledger, back in the black so to speak. Being 1 or 2 games behind the pack isn't so bad when you have 13 games to go.

 

- Our % isn't THAT bad either. 98% and with 13 games to go it can easily be improved, especially if we touch up a couple of the weaker sides. Actually 2 wins of say 90 points and conceding 60 pts will get our % up to 106%. 

 

- Our forward line has struggled without Paddy and Belly up there. We looked pretty ordinary up forward last year but our saving grace was Belly taking a tall defender for periods of the game. I think Joe D in particular will benefit from playing on the next biggest defender in our oppositions pecking order. Also Paddy has looked good up forward this year in his limited opportunities, so if these two big fellas can stay on the park then I think our ledger will improve quickly.

 

- Our injury list is pretty good, the only injuries we currently have are to guys we would arguably be resting from our best 22 anyway.

 

- Game style. It's quite possible that we have playing a certain way that has kept us fresh for an onslaught in the 2nd semester of the competition.

 

- Coaching skillz. BOmber has said that he's been free to experiemnet, blood new players, work on a different game style and play guys out of position etc, but he has also said he believes playing finals footy is what it's all about , so it's unlikely that he would accept not making the 8, and will throw absolutely everything into the coming weeks.

 

Ok, things that are against us:

 

- Whatever we think we are capable of, our opposition (teams above us) are capable of too, because they've already shown it, whereas we are still basing our hopes on 'maybe' and 'potential'.

 

- Everything I saidd that is +ve for us, is still only likely to help us make up the number in the 8. If we are going to beat the seriously good teams (IMO Port, Hawks, Geelong, Swans, Freo) in a final.... well I just can't even imagine how that would happen. Basically Joe D and Carlisle would have to become the best forward combo in the comp and Zaka would have to turn into Gary Ablett.

 

- Basically nothing can go wrong from here. No injuries/suspensions to key personnel, no off-field incidents, no quarters where we give away 40 points. If we lose the next couple it will swiftly turn into "what can we salvage from this season" and the players will have no faith in the coach/plan/each other and it will turning into a steaming pile.

 

- Usually you have a big pre-season, you improve and you come back and and in the first 5 rounds you show what you're made of and if you are a contender. 9 games in and we haven't shown we are anywhere near good enough to win a final, and we are relying on other teams to have a bad run and us to have some good luck just to make the 8. It's POSSIBLE that we have been playing below ourselves (for the +ve reasons I listed above) but history would suggest if you get off to a bad start you can be out of the running pretty quickly.

 

- We usually fade out as the season goes along, while it's possible, it's unlikely that we can reverse that trend.

I don't think 13 gets you in anymore with 18 teams.
 
I think you need 14.


Nope...

ON current form No, If we play like the 1st 2 rounds of the year then Yes, Mind you IF we get there will we make up the numbers? or have an impact?

The draw as it stands is as follows. The games we should win are in bold, the games we should lose are un-bolded.

 

11. Richmond (MCG)

12. GWS (Spotless)

13. Melbourne (MCG)

14. Adelaide (Etihad)

15. Geelong (Etihad)

16. Port Adelaide (AO)

17. Collingwood (MCG)

18. Bulldogs (Etihad)

19. Sydney (SCG)

20. Richmond (MCG)

21. West Coast (Etihad)

22. Gold Coast (Etihad)

23. Carlton (MCG)

 

Long story short - there is now absolutely zero room for error. We need to win every single one of the games that we 'should' win in order to get to 13 wins. Its possible however that 12 might allow us to sneak into 8th, in which case we'd be allowed one slip up.

 

Essentially though, we need be flawless in the games we should win from here onwards, be hopefully 9-9 at the end of Round 19, and then win 4 in a row (including a final game against Carlton) to make it to the 13 wins that will guarantee us a spot.

 

I hope we go on a run and make it, but surely you'd have to think its unlikely (though not impossible) at this stage.

Of course we can. Will we? Well only if we re-discover some of the more dynamic footy we were playing last year. I'm inclined to believe it will all click into place at some stage - soon, hopefully. If and when that happens the surge of confidence that accompanies that will make us a formidable team - certainly we've got the capability of a top-line side. I expect we'll get a run going at some point, and will be seen as the dangerous floater. Anything is possible then. 

 

But all that is possible only if we start playing aggressive football again.

That loss to St.Kilda will come back to haunt us, I said that then and ill say that now.

 

I don't think 13 gets you in anymore with 18 teams.
 
I think you need 14.


Nope...

 

12 will get you in.................with decent %

11th for me.. should be 5th but as usual our list under performs at the wrong time of the year, get in a slump,  then we struggle and then it's too late.. (I'm excluding the ASADA years). Disapointing. I also can't help but feel Bomber has taken us backwards, but then again, who else was gonna coach Hirdys game plan? This whole Carisle thing has really hurt us. Anyways... I'm ok with this.. kinda used to it.. took me 10 or so years, but I'm ok.

Don't have much faith myself atm. Been spanked by any decent team since round 3 and only just managed to get past both the dogs and lions.

We have an easy month ahead.
Gold Coast have a very tough month ahead. I think we can be ahead of them by 1-2 games in 4 week's time...
I'm being optimistic but we should at least be equal 8th in a week, leading into a game against GWS. Fortunes change so quickly in AFL. 3 weeks ago Adelaide were a shambles after losing to Melbourne, then all of a sudden a week later considered world beaters by the media after beating Collingwood.

The draw as it stands is as follows. The games we should win are in bold, the games we should lose are un-bolded.

 

11. Richmond (MCG)

12. GWS (Spotless)

13. Melbourne (MCG)

14. Adelaide (Etihad)

15. Geelong (Etihad)

16. Port Adelaide (AO)

17. Collingwood (MCG)

18. Bulldogs (Etihad)

19. Sydney (SCG)

20. Richmond (MCG)

21. West Coast (Etihad)

22. Gold Coast (Etihad)

23. Carlton (MCG)

 

Long story short - there is now absolutely zero room for error. We need to win every single one of the games that we 'should' win in order to get to 13 wins. Its possible however that 12 might allow us to sneak into 8th, in which case we'd be allowed one slip up.

 

Essentially though, we need be flawless in the games we should win from here onwards, be hopefully 9-9 at the end of Round 19, and then win 4 in a row (including a final game against Carlton) to make it to the 13 wins that will guarantee us a spot.

 

I hope we go on a run and make it, but surely you'd have to think its unlikely (though not impossible) at this stage.

We never ever beat Richmond twice in a year.. I'm nervous about Melbourne, they're the type of team we lose to .. and they're playing better than Melbourne of old. we'll under estimate them, come out slow, and try and make a late surge but get our necks snapped by some spud on a ill advised snap at goal at the 25 min mark of the fourth.

 

The draw as it stands is as follows. The games we should win are in bold, the games we should lose are un-bolded.

 

11. Richmond (MCG)

12. GWS (Spotless)

13. Melbourne (MCG)

14. Adelaide (Etihad)

15. Geelong (Etihad)

16. Port Adelaide (AO)

17. Collingwood (MCG)

18. Bulldogs (Etihad)

19. Sydney (SCG)

20. Richmond (MCG)

21. West Coast (Etihad)

22. Gold Coast (Etihad)

23. Carlton (MCG)

 

Long story short - there is now absolutely zero room for error. We need to win every single one of the games that we 'should' win in order to get to 13 wins. Its possible however that 12 might allow us to sneak into 8th, in which case we'd be allowed one slip up.

 

Essentially though, we need be flawless in the games we should win from here onwards, be hopefully 9-9 at the end of Round 19, and then win 4 in a row (including a final game against Carlton) to make it to the 13 wins that will guarantee us a spot.

 

I hope we go on a run and make it, but surely you'd have to think its unlikely (though not impossible) at this stage.

We never ever beat Richmond twice in a year.. I'm nervous about Melbourne, they're the type of team we lose to .. and they're playing better than Melbourne of old. we'll under estimate them, come out slow, and try and make a late surge but get our necks snapped by some spud on a ill advised snap at goal at the 25 min mark.

 

 

Results never turn out exactly how you predict.

 

If we hit form we could beat Collingwood, Sydney and Geelong who we play well against when we are in form and have had some good games against in the past couple of years. No game is unwinnable, and no game is a guaranteed win.

Our form would have to turn around massively and everything go right for us.... No injuries, fair umpiring decisions, JC and JD start kicking bags and asada fks off....

So no - no finals this season.

I think it's a bit hard to pencil in wins and losses, and other teams form will change.

 

If we are on track for finals then we should win those last 4 especially if those teams have lost their hunger, but if they are all like us and need to win each week to stay in the hunt then we will struggle.

 

Also I wouldn't be surprised if the Hird return becomes a factor. It's only about 3 months away now and the players will be absolutely desparate to play finals this year, otherwise they won't be able to stick it up the AFL.

We have an easy month ahead.
Gold Coast have a very tough month ahead. I think we can be ahead of them by 1-2 games in 4 week's time...
I'm being optimistic but we should at least be equal 8th in a week, leading into a game against GWS. Fortunes change so quickly in AFL. 3 weeks ago Adelaide were a shambles after losing to Melbourne, then all of a sudden a week later considered world beaters by the media after beating Collingwood.

 

Essendon never have an easy month, because we continually make the winnable games, unwinnable!

Sick of the games we should blow the opposition out of the water, continually become struggle town.

 

St Kilda, Western Bulldogs and Brisbane games a prime example.   Watch us get pushed by Richmond, GWS, and Melbourne!

Let me get this straight. Its gonna be real hard for us to win 9 games. Really unlikely. But were gonna need too because fat ■■■■■■ chance the roos don’t win 8 games?

At the risk of sounding cliched every game is a final from here on*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*I"ll get me coat

another do or die game at rd11,

 

love it.