Finding goals in 2015

Last season was the lowest scoring effort by Essendon team in 43 years. If we are going to transform ourselves into a team that can win finals and cement a top four spot, surely the improvement needs to come from our ability to score. Last year we conceded 78 PPG, which ranks us fourth in the league. So the way the team defended is solid, and the back line looks settled. Hird has indicated we need to find a few more goals. How do we do it?

Part of the reason we were effective defensively was our ultra conservative ball use. We kicked long only 29% of the time, which made us the shortest kicking team in the comp. Holding onto the ball at all costs meant that were difficult to score against, but slow ball movement made it tough for our forwards to get separation from their opponents and time their leads. So it would be unfair for the forwards to shoulder the blame alone for our poor scoring rate in 2014.

The team was ranked 5th for inside-50s, but the teams conversion rate was the poorest in the league. On a number of occasions we lost games despite a strong advantage with regard to inside-50s. Slow ball movement is one reason for such poor conversion of opportunities, but I think it’s also fair to say the quality of the players we currently have playing in front of the ball isn’t what it has been for some time - perhaps since the 70s. Furthermore, the way the forward line was setup at times made it difficult for our forwards to isolate their opponents for one-on-ones, and to find space to lead into.

The good news is that we have a couple of developing key forwards whose best footy is in front of them. Last year Carlisle managed 6 goals from his first 12 games, and had very little influence. His last seven games yielded 21 goals, and included a couple of performances where he was the clear standout player in the game. Similarly, Daniher struggled early, but found some form late, including four goals in a final. I don’t think there is any doubt that he will develop into a dominant key forward. We also found a couple of other smaller types in Zac Merrett and Colyer who look like they can hit the scoreboard, while Ambrose showed promise as a lead-up type. I think we still need to find a couple of others, and it looks like the club has addressed the issue at the draft table and the recruitment of Cooney.

Hopefully under Hird we will see an Essendon side that is prepared to take a few more risks with the ball, and the development of our squad will see the scoreboard ticking over more often. I reckon there are three main factors that led to the team scoring at such a low rate:

  1. Ultra conservative/slow ball movement
  2. The structure of the forward line didn’t afford our players space to operate
  3. Inconsistent performance from forward line players

In my opinion, those are the big three, in that order. And I think all three can be addressed with tweaks to game style and the natural improvement of our players. Do you think I have it right, or are there other factors I’ve missed altogether?

Pretty good summary.

It was also an almost completely new bunch of guys in our forward line last year, and a bit if cohesion will certainly help through this year.

How much Joe progresses is key, but if Carlisle can find consistency then it could all turn around pretty quick.

We are still desperately short of any decent crumbing forwards (with pace) but we’ve been working around that for years.

Spot on WD. Great post. You picked it in one.

Interestingly I felt Colyer and Zach were two of the players who generated real pace through the midfield last year. If they plays up forward, we’ll lose that quick pace and delivery into the forward line. Cooney may help there. I think Dempsey at top form would help too.

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Spot on WD. Great post. You picked it in one.

Interestingly I felt Colyer and Zach were two of the players who generated real pace through the midfield last year. If they plays up forward, we’ll lose that quick pace and delivery into the forward line. Cooney may help there. I think Dempsey at top form would help too.

I agree that Zaka and Colyer are both better suited to the midfield, but they are going to be rotating through the forward line with a few others too. I reckon you can lump Zaka, Cooney, Colyer and Zac Merrett all in the same boat as midfielders who can get on the outside and find space, but will be spending time forward as well.

Doesn’t help when Carlisle was lost for 2/3 of the year. That doesn’t include playing 2-3 games in defense too.

Belly was supposed to be fit and ready but every time he’ll return, did nothing.
Daniher improved drastically so couldn’t ask anything else from here. Will kick double his goal tally from last year.

Need Fantasia, Kommer and Jerrett to be fit and ready. Added pressure and kicking those sneaky goals is something we lacked. Ball got out far too easily in 2014.

Ambrose will improve offensively and talk of Edwards in there provides a X-factor to it.

Confident of seeing the ‘scores for’ much higher than last year.

Fwd line discussion rehash thread number, … what …4 is it?

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Fwd line discussion rehash thread number, .. what ...4 is it?

Well done champ. I found a thread discussing the forward line seven pages back. It hasn’t been active in five months, and focuses on events of 2014.

Thanks for your contribution.

Sorry WD. Just takin the p1ss … but it really has been discussed to death.

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Sorry WD. Just takin the p1ss ... but it really has been discussed to death.

The saga, Hurley forward / back, best 22, is Dell good or sh*t… These have all been done to death.

This topic hasn’t. And unlike most things on here at the moment, this is at least somewhat interesting… And footy related.

Nope, needs the most discussion imo
Would love to see Edwards given a few games of he’s ready

I reckon Carlisle took time to adjust on the amount of body contact he was receiving rather than giving. And crashing packs was new for him as well. He didn’t look right after doing it against Richmond. If the reports of him putting on more weight/muscle over the summer are right this should help him with these issues and have him out there more.

Let’s also not forget Bellchambers getting a full pre-season this year will make a big difference to him.

I think point 3 will be improved from the above

Daniher, Hurley, Ambrose, Carlisle and Belly all have the ablity to kick a bag of goals. Hopefully Giles, Langford and Laverde with stints in forward line this year, also impact the scoreboard.

This year we have Chappy, Cooney, Watson, Goddard, Colyer, Zacka, Z.Merrett, Stanton and winderlich
all capable of kicking multiple goals in games and rotating through forward/midfield

Looking for someone to break the 35 goal a season barrier in 2015.

We need a third threat. Joe D and Carlisle won’t fire every week. And when they don’t, too much would be left to Zaha, Merrett, Colyer none of whom are huge goalkickers.

Ambrose needs to improve a fair bit or be upgraded on.

I’m excited to see what Giles has to offer actually. I believe he’ll be raring to go, and he can kick a goal. (He was the first player to notch 50 games for the Giants midway through last year)

With Belly as first ruck, I think Giles will relish his 3rd chance (although it’s not like he was ever in bad form at GWS- they just upgraded with Mummy).

Of all the older recruits we picked up it’s probably Giles I’m most excited about. (Love a good ruck combination)

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We need a third threat. Joe D and Carlisle won't fire every week. And when they don't, too much would be left to Zaha, Merrett, Colyer none of whom are huge goalkickers.

Ambrose needs to improve a fair bit or be upgraded on.

From what I have seen, Langford can be that Ambrose upgrade. It’s just a matter of how long he takes. Also, based on training, Laverde and Edwards are also being groomed as options in aforementioned role.

I’m glad they are looking at Edwards forward this year. While he can play half back he is a tough match up forward with his speed and length

I honestly have never understood the lack of potential being applied to Ambrose.

It seems a lot of posters tend to think that Ambrose is nothing more than someone who will bust open packs.

I think he is one of the better prospects on our list and has a huge ceiling to be honest. He has a lot of what we need that not many other players on our list posses.

He is a super athlete, who is a dead eye in front of goal, who is built like a brick shithouse, who can run all day and is as hard as nails.

He is exactly what we need in our forward line to complement Daniher and Carlisle but appears to be quite easily dismissed by many on here.

All he has to do is improve his marking and we have a player. Getting more of the ball and creating better leads will come with experience but some of the things he possesses just cannot be taught.

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Last season was the lowest scoring effort by Essendon team in 43 years. If we are going to transform ourselves into a team that can win finals and cement a top four spot, surely the improvement needs to come from our ability to score. Last year we conceded 78 PPG, which ranks us fourth in the league. So the way the team defended is solid, and the back line looks settled. Hird has indicated we need to find a few more goals. How do we do it?

Part of the reason we were effective defensively was our ultra conservative ball use. We kicked long only 29% of the time, which made us the shortest kicking team in the comp. Holding onto the ball at all costs meant that were difficult to score against, but slow ball movement made it tough for our forwards to get separation from their opponents and time their leads. So it would be unfair for the forwards to shoulder the blame alone for our poor scoring rate in 2014.

The team was ranked 5th for inside-50s, but the teams conversion rate was the poorest in the league. On a number of occasions we lost games despite a strong advantage with regard to inside-50s. Slow ball movement is one reason for such poor conversion of opportunities, but I think it’s also fair to say the quality of the players we currently have playing in front of the ball isn’t what it has been for some time - perhaps since the 70s. Furthermore, the way the forward line was setup at times made it difficult for our forwards to isolate their opponents for one-on-ones, and to find space to lead into.

The good news is that we have a couple of developing key forwards whose best footy is in front of them. Last year Carlisle managed 6 goals from his first 12 games, and had very little influence. His last seven games yielded 21 goals, and included a couple of performances where he was the clear standout player in the game. Similarly, Daniher struggled early, but found some form late, including four goals in a final. I don’t think there is any doubt that he will develop into a dominant key forward. We also found a couple of other smaller types in Zac Merrett and Colyer who look like they can hit the scoreboard, while Ambrose showed promise as a lead-up type. I think we still need to find a couple of others, and it looks like the club has addressed the issue at the draft table and the recruitment of Cooney.

Hopefully under Hird we will see an Essendon side that is prepared to take a few more risks with the ball, and the development of our squad will see the scoreboard ticking over more often. I reckon there are three main factors that led to the team scoring at such a low rate:

  1. Ultra conservative/slow ball movement
  2. The structure of the forward line didn’t afford our players space to operate
  3. Inconsistent performance from forward line players

In my opinion, those are the big three, in that order. And I think all three can be addressed with tweaks to game style and the natural improvement of our players. Do you think I have it right, or are there other factors I’ve missed altogether?

Awesome summary. Agree with everything you said.

Our forward line is the last piece of the puzzle for us to fix/improve. If we can do that we are a certain Top 4 team imo.

I’m really interested to see who Hird plays up forward next to the twin towers in Joe and Jake. The guys that can have stints or spend a lot of time down there are imo:

*Colyer- his speed is his main asset, so you could easily play the old pagans padock with him running into space

  • Goddard- the guy is pure class. Has all the tools to easily kick 20-30 goals if he spent all season forward.

  • Cooney- see Goddard.

*Ambrose- loved this guy from the first game where he backed back on the wing and too a really gutsy mark. Hits the contest really hard, good grab, pretty good kick. Plenty of 2nd,3rd efforts.

  • Kommer- IF he can get fit, he is great for forward pressure plus a few goals here and there.

  • Winderlich- really interested to see if he plays forward or back. Is a very good lead up small forward, and is a very accurate kick. He really re-invented himself last year in the backline. Not sure where he will line up.

*Resting ruckman. Giles is very underated as a forward. Can take pack marks, and is a pretty good kick from what Ive seen. We have all seen what TBell can do when up forward.

*Chapman- good mark, good kick, great goal sense. Plenty of experience.

*Zac Merret- has shown he can make an impact. Got a very good goal sense.

Then we have a stack of guys who play midfield but are good for a few goals here and there.

We have the ability to score a lot this season. Just need to get the right setup and get it in there as quickly as possible. Too many times last year(as you mentioned in your post) we messed around with it so much Joe had to beat multiple backmen.

Goals will come from

Danniher
Carlisle
Chapman
Jobe resting forward
Winderlich
Colyer
Zerrett
Zaharakis
Goddard
Cooney
Occasional Heppell brilliance.