Last season was the lowest scoring effort by Essendon team in 43 years. If we are going to transform ourselves into a team that can win finals and cement a top four spot, surely the improvement needs to come from our ability to score. Last year we conceded 78 PPG, which ranks us fourth in the league. So the way the team defended is solid, and the back line looks settled. Hird has indicated we need to find a few more goals. How do we do it?
Part of the reason we were effective defensively was our ultra conservative ball use. We kicked long only 29% of the time, which made us the shortest kicking team in the comp. Holding onto the ball at all costs meant that were difficult to score against, but slow ball movement made it tough for our forwards to get separation from their opponents and time their leads. So it would be unfair for the forwards to shoulder the blame alone for our poor scoring rate in 2014.
The team was ranked 5th for inside-50s, but the teams conversion rate was the poorest in the league. On a number of occasions we lost games despite a strong advantage with regard to inside-50s. Slow ball movement is one reason for such poor conversion of opportunities, but I think it’s also fair to say the quality of the players we currently have playing in front of the ball isn’t what it has been for some time - perhaps since the 70s. Furthermore, the way the forward line was setup at times made it difficult for our forwards to isolate their opponents for one-on-ones, and to find space to lead into.
The good news is that we have a couple of developing key forwards whose best footy is in front of them. Last year Carlisle managed 6 goals from his first 12 games, and had very little influence. His last seven games yielded 21 goals, and included a couple of performances where he was the clear standout player in the game. Similarly, Daniher struggled early, but found some form late, including four goals in a final. I don’t think there is any doubt that he will develop into a dominant key forward. We also found a couple of other smaller types in Zac Merrett and Colyer who look like they can hit the scoreboard, while Ambrose showed promise as a lead-up type. I think we still need to find a couple of others, and it looks like the club has addressed the issue at the draft table and the recruitment of Cooney.
Hopefully under Hird we will see an Essendon side that is prepared to take a few more risks with the ball, and the development of our squad will see the scoreboard ticking over more often. I reckon there are three main factors that led to the team scoring at such a low rate:
- Ultra conservative/slow ball movement
- The structure of the forward line didn’t afford our players space to operate
- Inconsistent performance from forward line players
In my opinion, those are the big three, in that order. And I think all three can be addressed with tweaks to game style and the natural improvement of our players. Do you think I have it right, or are there other factors I’ve missed altogether?