So, when talking about strategy about trading and drafting, a key split appears to be forming in the Blitz faithful.
There are those who believe the window is open now, and we should push hard. They (ok, I) believe that without the drug issues we'd have finished around 3rd => 5th, that we could have pushed in the finals. We want to top up the side with a Dal Santo or a Sylvia, and won't be adverse to taking some mature agers. Generally we want to keep the senior listed players with trade value, and maybe even the depth so we have cover during our push. Oh, and get a better forward coach.
The other group believes the team is not near enough for a crack, and it won't be for a couple of years. The depth players are potentially list cloggers and they're happy to trade some quality to get back into the draft. There big concern is that Jobe, Stanton, Goddard are all in a similar age bracket that is fast approach 30, and they're our 3 best mids. Winderlich and Fletcher are also extremely important and near the end. So we already need to be planning to replace these guys. They're concerned any older players brought in are less opportunities for Kav, Browne, Colyer and the like.
Obviously, the whole situation with GWS/GC complicates this as well since the window might not be open for anyone but them 2-3 years from now.
So I've put together a poll (which hopefully works, this is my first attempt) to find out how many in each camp. And maybe we can discuss why we all think what we do here and therefore the consequences for trade weeks and the drafts.
in the next 5 years we are a legitimate chance to win the flag. I expect us to be contending in 2015 for certain.
I honestly believe we have a core group that can take us to the promised land.
Young KPP, most who have now played 50+ games
A few really experienced mids, along with strong up and coming group of mids (who can kick goals)
A very settled backline (defence wins flags)
A few things standing in our way:
*consistency- dropping games to rubbish teams
*forward line- sort this mess out and we are a certain top 4 team
*finals experience- pretty much all the players haven't experienced winning finals or even playing in high pressure finals games.
*Decide where to put Hurley, and leave him there. Poor kid gets thrown around from end to end consistently during games. Can't get any consistency.
*How the club rebounds from the poo storm that was this year.
*Keep our list together
*Beat Hawthorn- they are the one team that smashes us every single time. If we can beat them, would give the boys confidence that we can match it with the best of the best.
I personally can't forsee a scenario where we will be a better team in 4-5 years than we should be in the next 2. We've finally started to get a midfield together that can compete BUT Watson Goddard & Stants (our best 3 mids) are all going to be 28-29 next year. There's still some improvement in Zaka (consistency), Heppel should continue towards stardom & Melksham took some big steps this year so really our best chance of having a strong midfield mix is the next 2 years. Down back I think we have most posts covered but really a lot hinges on Dempsey staying fit to provide that drive. If Hooker & Pig maintain form, Carlisle regains his early year touch, Demps stays fit, Bags continues to defy my opinion of him & perhaps we see someone like Browne or Delgleish step up to be a solid contributor, I think we have a backline that is capable of winning finals from next year. Forward line has been the biggest issue but again I think the ingredients could be there now & won't nesesarily be better in a few years. Winders is clearly our best small/medium forward. If he can get fit for a year he could easily be a 40 goal forward but at 29 its now or never. Assuming we keep Cramers, again he is mearly fittness away from 40-50 goals a year. Hurley is the big unknown but if he can't become the player we want in the next 2 years he aint gunna be it in 4 years. JD is the the obvious player who is going to need a few years to reach full potential but as I've pointed out here several times there's plenty of teams (Brisbane, Geelong, Collingwood, Hawthorn) who have won flags with 20-21 year old key forwards.
It MUST be open now (2014-2015). Port, GCS and GWS will start challenging imo in 2016. We’ve got the core midfield however if we can add another youngster such as Adams or allow KAV to play more games next year, we should be good to go.
We also have arguably the two best rucks in the league with a solid back 6 with Dalgliesh, Hardy and Pears as great options as depth (if they stay). Of course, our weakness: fwd line. Daniher should come good and another pre-season into Merrett and Kommer will do them a world of good. Also, if Licha and Hurls stay injury-free fingers crossed, it’ll look as powerful as ever. Still a big dilemma though with Davey, Jetta and Cory Del as to who will stay or go.
WE have to get the off-field right. Should have played finals the last two years, if not for massive blunders by the coaching/sports science Department.
I tend to think that we can be competitive for the next 5 or 6 years. Whether this is competitive enough to win a premiership is hard to tell. I think we need to be patient - FA list is looking stronger in 2014, so there is no indecent haste to trade in older players - It's more important to build the list wisely with careful selection of players, and ensuring we develop the next group of young players like Kavanagh/Browne/JD/Gregory/Ashby/Gleeson etc.
I'd be really interested in the perspective of some of the people who voted for three years. Would one of you like to say what are the factors that make you think that?
And ironically, I pretty much agree with everything Jbomber said. :)
I am in the "now" camp but I don't think it is clear enough to be drafting a Dal Santo type player who can only offer you a couple of years.
Big if's, but had we finished in the finals last year and got some added finals experience under out belts and had the drugs saga not ruined things this year then maybe you risk picking up a player who is 30 but all class.
I tend to agree with yaco55 in that we can be a contender over the next 5-6 years - which suggests to me drafting a blend of players from 18-26 years old to ensure we don't have a St Kilda situation where you chase a window so hard that you have so many key players leaving the game in a 1 or 2 year space and the rebuild is massive.
I am in the "now" camp but I don't think it is clear enough to be drafting a Dal Santo type player who can only offer you a couple of years.
Big if's, but had we finished in the finals last year and got some added finals experience under out belts and had the drugs saga not ruined things this year then maybe you risk picking up a player who is 30 but all class.
I tend to agree with yaco55 in that we can be a contender over the next 5-6 years - which suggests to me drafting a blend of players from 18-26 years old to ensure we don't have a St Kilda situation where you chase a window so hard that you have so many key players leaving the game in a 1 or 2 year space and the rebuild is massive.
But in lieu of that finals experience, doesn't getting a Dal Santo mean more since he does have that experience?
I am in the "now" camp but I don't think it is clear enough to be drafting a Dal Santo type player who can only offer you a couple of years.
Big if's, but had we finished in the finals last year and got some added finals experience under out belts and had the drugs saga not ruined things this year then maybe you risk picking up a player who is 30 but all class.
I tend to agree with yaco55 in that we can be a contender over the next 5-6 years - which suggests to me drafting a blend of players from 18-26 years old to ensure we don't have a St Kilda situation where you chase a window so hard that you have so many key players leaving the game in a 1 or 2 year space and the rebuild is massive.
But in lieu of that finals experience, doesn't getting a Dal Santo mean more since he does have that experience?
Absolutely. I don't realisiticaly think we are a chance in hell of actually pulling off a second big signing in the same decade BUT if we had the money its a complete no brainer. Dal Santo woudl waltz into our midfield blindfolded & have a positive impact on the side. He has the class we have a shortage of & would be a similar revelation to what Goddard was for us this year. The finals experience would be the cherry on top.
I vote for "now". But I'd always vote for now. The fact that we were cruising along near the top of the ladder this season in spite of the most immense pressure I can recall just confirms it. The time is now.
I reckon Jobe has another 5-6 years left in him at least. In his last few years i can see him spending more and more time up forward- which will prolong his career. While other guys take control of the midfield.
I would rather us keep building our own, then keep on topping up. If you constantlly have young kids coming through learning in a good enviroment, you can have sustained success for 5-7 years. Instead of a 3 years burst, then rocketing down the ladder.
If we recruit 2-3 guys who can add a fair bit next year, and find another 1-2 from what we’ve got in the twos/injury list, we can get another win or three and finish top 4.
We’re not losing anything this year. After 2015 we will.
There’s a lot more to come from Zaha, Hurley, Heppell and Carlisle. But we need bolstering.
Tracking along at about 75% think now. So obviously a lot of optimism about next season. It would be interesting to know how the players and the coaches feel.
Now...sorta. 2015 is the year. What kills us is the finals experience we missed out on this season IMO. Teams simply don't go from not having one a final in almost a decade, to suddenly going all the way and winning the whole lot. Finals experience - especially that of the winning variety - is absolutely crucial to developing a team than can make a legitimate challenge for the premiership.
I think we're good enough to finish in the top 4-6 next year and win a final or two... but that was meant to happen this year, giving us the experience and hunger to take the next level in 2014. I suppose there are always exceptions to the rule, but IMO, unless all the stars align, we're looking at 2015 as our best shot at it.
Now...sorta. 2015 is the year. What kills us is the finals experience we missed out on this season IMO. Teams simply don't go from not having one a final in almost a decade, to suddenly going all the way and winning the whole lot. Finals experience - especially that of the winning variety - is absolutely crucial to developing a team than can make a legitimate challenge for the premiership.
I think we're good enough to finish in the top 4-6 next year and win a final or two... but that was meant to happen this year, giving us the experience and hunger to take the next level in 2014. I suppose there are always exceptions to the rule, but IMO, unless all the stars align, we're looking at 2015 as our best shot at it.
I hope Fremantle proves you wrong cause we might be in the same boat as them.
Not sure our next Premiership will be like 2000, but more like 1993.