We need to open 4 main list spots you’d think. 1 for a trade/FA player and 3 for the main draft.
Weid and Shiel most obvious, but we may have to trade a few out. Goldy is a watch 2nd half of the year.
Unless it’s a deep draft I could see us going only 2 draft picks (if permitted).
The only way we can take 2 is if we upgrade a rookie which doesn’t solve main list spot squeeze.
There’s so long to go in the season.
We could be up and flying at the end of the year, midfield just humming along beautifully, list spots are tight, Setterfield can’t break in, gets another niggling injury, and suddenly he’s in trouble. Or Hobbs is playing well but isn’t getting on ball time and someone comes in with a killer offer.
We could fall off a cliff, and then Heppell’s not a reliable cog in a winning machine, he’s a 32 year old role player. Baldwin could come in to cover injuries and play himself out of a contract in a couple of months.
Obviously lots to play out. And the Mass scenario from last year shows that things can arise out of nowhere. Just an interesting area to keep an eye on.
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Two ready rucks, one developing and one guy who can play there in an emergency is fine IMO.
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Oh definitely. To be a bit more specific I think Heppell, Hind and Kelly are the senior listed players in the most trouble if things go south, somewhat independent of their individual performances. That group plus Baldwin and Setterfield seem like the “contract announced in September” type senior players. There’s also of course the Jake Kelly or Will Setterfield to the rookie list type option, I guess.
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Add Sheil and Goldy to the senior list.
Hunter and wanganeen must be on shaky ground.
There’s heaps of potential list changes.
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i think we’ll see saad sooner than later, wing seems to be the hotspot for players picking up injuries in our side atm, and if whoever posted that covid leads to soft tissue injuries is true, its only a matter of time
No, this isn’t a problem (if they’re good enough). El-Hawli and Roberts can both play wing. Heppell and Kelly aren’t spring chickens. Duursma has a terrible injury record. Hind is also around 30.
Some cover in this area was actually desperately needed prior to last year’s draft. Three is perfectly reasonable.
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I’m kind of assuming Shiel’s out one way or the other. Goldy would definitely be on watch, but my guess is if he’s decent form and wants to go again he’ll probably get to. By comparison I think, given his selection over the year, Hind could be in decent personal form and still get it in the neck if the team’s not going well.
The rookies are a whole other conversation, but certainly options there.
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We are still a couple of years away from seeing development begin to peak but the core talent is actually together at similar age from a mix of draft, trade & rookie gems.
Our long-term midfield Caldwell, Durham, Perkins, Hobbs, Tsatas are emerging and are still all in their early 20s/teens. Duursma & Cox have the wings locked down and are aged similarly. Alongside Parish, Merrett & Setters, we actually have some depth. Question probably on whether our young mids at age 25 will become elite or just good.
Draper, Bryan & Vigo are a good mix of development in the ruck department.
Defensively, our KPPs are looking set for years to come with McKay, Ridley, Reid, Hayes & Baldwin depth.
Our top line small defenders McGrath, Redman & Martin are quality. Adding Lual, Roberts & now El Hawli to the list over the last year has been really solid strategy to build depth post Kelly/Heppell/Hind.
Our key forwards have been a major area of concern… Caddy & Jones look promising, Peter Wright & Langers still have plenty of years left. Hunter there as a potential development player. No longer terrible.
Small forwards are a massive issue for us. Gresham has been a good pickup, Guelfi solid role player & the Davey twins have scope for development left however we should look at spending our first or second round pick this year on an elite talent in this area. Tyson Stengle as a free agent would be ideal.
If we can sure up our small forward stocks this off-season, we will be in a great position going forward. Salary cap permitting, we could then look at adding a cherry on top via free agency…Rayner/LDU 2025 whilst still holding our draft hand.
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I have a slightly different take.
| 2023 starting | 2023 backup | 2023 developing | 2025 starting | 2025 backup | 2025 developing | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | Small | Gresham | Menzie | Davey Jnr | Gresham | Menzie | |
| Guelfi | Davey Jnr | ||||||
| Forwards | Med | Langford | Caddy | Langford | |||
| Stringer | Caddy | ||||||
| Forwards | Tall | Wright | Visentini | Wright | Visentini | ||
| Jones | Jones | ||||||
| Midfield | Ruck | Goldstein | Draper | Bryan | Bryan | Draper | |
| Midfield | Bounce | Parish | Durham | Hobbs | Parish | Durham | |
| Merrett | Caldwell | Tsatas | Merrett | Caldwell | |||
| Perkins | Perkins | ||||||
| Tsatas | |||||||
| Hobbs | |||||||
| Midfield | Wing | Duursma | Hind | Roberts | Duursma | Roberts | |
| Cox | Cox | ||||||
| Defenders | Small | McGrath | Lual | McGrath | |||
| Kelly | |||||||
| Defenders | Med | Martin | Heppell | Martin | |||
| Redman | Redman | ||||||
| Defenders | Tall | Ridley | Laverde | Reid | Ridley | Reid | |
| McKay | Hayes | McKay | Hayes |
I’ve left out Shiel, Weideman, Setterfield and Wanganeen as I think they would be moved on in that time. Baldwin, Davey and Hunter could also be moved on, but may develop further and end up being a bonus.
I have Guelfi, Stringer, Goldstein, Hind, Kelly, Hep and Laverde being replaced over the next few years.
Caddy easily takes Stringer’s spot in the forward line.
We have a Goldy replacement. I think the plan is to develop Draper as the forward / ruck and Bryan will be the number 1 ruck. If it is the plan, I think he’s aware of it and will stick around. If he leaves, then I suspect we’ll go with Draper as first ruck and try to recruit a forward ruck. Once Goldy is gone, we’ll need to develop another ruck.
We do need a small forward to replace Guelfi. Hopefully we have some trade bait to get an experienced one is as I think we need to allow time for Davey Jnr and Menzie to develop their game a bit more. They may not make it, but such is life.
I’ve mentioned it before, but I think we are thin on small defenders. We only have McGrath and if he gets injured, we’ll finally realise exactly what he provides the team. I think we need 1 experienced small defender and one to develop.
I think we also need medium defenders. One experienced and one to develop. This may provide some flexibility to shift Martin elsewhere if required.
I do think we also need another wing. It’s a highly specialist position so I think we need an experienced one who can do the required running and to allow Roberts to develop further.
I think our tall defenders are set for quite some time.
I think our midfield will still evolve a tad further over the next few years. Whether Merrett stays there or not is questionable and given we are not allowing as many spots ion the forward line to develop players, one or two may leave for more opportunity. There is also the possibility that one of them (maybe Perkins) starts playing off the backline a bit more releasing Martin further up the ground.
I think the list is okay.
You’re never sure who will become that ‘A grader’ or ‘elite player’. I think unless you are greatly talented, that tag will come once team success is achieved.
I think we’re a bit away from thinking about premierships. Our path will more likely be make a final (not sure whether we win or lose), then drop off somewhat (teams will target us and we’ll have usually teething problems dealing with expectations), then jump back up into the top 4. That should align with the maturity of the current crop of youngsters we have and where you’ll be able to judge whether they are ‘elite’.
It would be great if the list numbers could expand by another 2. You really need to build flexibility into a list that’ll last two to three years as you just don’t have enough spots dedicated to development and to backup options.
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I think the list is coming along well.
In terms of locks, the nucleus of the team moving forward looks something like
McGrath McKay ???
Redman Ridley Martin
Duursma Draper ???
Parish Merrett Durham
Caldwell ??? Perkins
Gresham Wright Langford
Then four bench spots up for grab.
- Hayes, Reid and Lav are competing for the third defender role
- Cox is developing on the wing, but we lack depth here
- Setterfield, Hobbs and Tsatas are competing for one, maybe two bench mid roles.
- we have recently drafted some small defenders and forwards, but established quality is obviously an issue.
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I’d probably have one of Caldwell or Perkins as starting on the bench. Not that they’re not locks, but based on how we’ve set up structurally so far this year, there’s probably a second tall (let’s say the current ???) and 2-3 other forwards missing from that lineup.
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I think Guelfi as a small defensive forward who can hit the scoreboard isn’t getting enough love here.
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Was this meant to be something other than 2023 and 2025? Ie last year and next year.
What I wouldn’t give for us to have kept Walla (who is 31) fit and motivated. Would have been the missing piece.
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Think Walla is well past AFL now. Struggled through last season and was in reality gifted game’s through reputation only.
Obviously.
I’m saying if in 2020/2021 we’d helped him manage his off field issues and he’d stayed (relatively) fit and motivated.