I’d say it’s more likely we’d be wanting to sure up our 2027 draft hand with a Ridley trade.
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I’ve left out players that have been linked to moving to other clubs, assumed we’ll keep 9-10 experienced players, and left out underperforming mid-age/experience players such as jones, cox, perkins, blakiston, edwards
Recently drafted + Played AFL
- Robey
- Caddy
- Sharp
- Roberts
- Kako
- Farrow
- Clarke
- Huss
- May
- Johnson
- Day-wicks
- Kondog
- Hayes
- Vigo
- Artemis
To be drafted
16. Tex/HVH/Butler
17. Justice
18. Bewick
19. Darwish
20-25. 6 more draftees in next 2 drafts
+ retain 10 Experienced/mid-age players or recruit near end of career quality
McGrath, Durham, Martin, Caldwell, Wright, Duursma, Bryan, Reid, Langford, Prior
I think after the 2027 draft it is fair to say the rebuild is done, as we have 35+ players who we expect to drive our climb up the ladder, then in 2028 our focus would shift to FA.
Whether these players are good enough is obviously another issue. There’s a lot of youth in the list and some quality at the top end at this stage of their careers.
We’ll draft 10 or so players over next 2 years with what should be top 30 picks. If we can nail half of these, LM/Rosa will have done their job, and it’s over to coaching staff to get the development right.
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Interesting way to look at the list rebuild.
This base list strategy looks good.
Hopefully a few good free agents can come on towards the end of this as well.
SSP and mid season draft picks to replace players leaving or not up to it.
That’s what I think. The scoreboard and the way games are being played suggests a dogshite list. I don’t agree. I see lots of talented young players that with a good program supporting them could deliver for us.
Due to injury and mismanagement we do have new and emerging challenges however that will need fixing via trading and FA acquisition in 24 months or so.
Ruck - Bryan unlikely to meet hopes. Vigo?
Defence - Ridley broken. Mc Kay broken. Hayes durability? Two key defenders possibly needed. More leg speed and better ball users.
Forwards - Key forward with physical attributes. Like Cale Hooker in his last year he two. Mid sized forward replacing Langford.
All in all though, it’s all about development and that’s more than just getting great development coaches btw.
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You’ve identified the crux of it, but mostly glossed over it. If players outside the top 20 are 50/50 to make it (generous by historical standards) then that group of 25 draftees drops down to around 9 top 20 and 8 making it. And some of those “making it” would historically be average. With big question marks on many of those older players, I think saying the rebuild is done after 2027 is very optimistic. I think there is every chance we’re bottom 5 in 2028 and 2029.
Where do you get 10? I get two from 2027 and 4-5 this year.
the rebuild isn’t done until we win at least 1 final, no earlier
Yeah the notion that you can define a rebuilds end by a number of picks is plain wrong. The end of 27 would signify it only if we had achieved the as expected average success rate for 200+ game player etc. but also we need superstars, we need role players etc and you won’t know that until a couple of years after 27.
Throw in a catastrophic senior drop off and I say we are 28/29 before we will even know anything about the rebuild.
TBH we need 3-4 player to come good incl 1 superstar from this draft or it will drag out.
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May looking good as big boy in fwd line. Another Voss like fwd would be good. But for now it is Caddy, May and 2MP.
Our need for 3 zippy fwds is a priority. Once we sort that out I’m all for hunting a big power fwd if May isn’t it.
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In that scenario we’re trading Zack, parish, Redman and Ridley and delisting a few, plus our own picks, so we might go 6 + 4 over next 2 years, mostly but not all 2nd round or better,
but of course it’s guesswork with lots of unknowns.
Rebuilds are not finished when team becomes awesome, that’s “success”, rather when the list reaches the point where age and experience don’t make success impossible.
Because of the odds of individual player success it’s more likely the rebuild will peak at 5-6th position and then collapse given failure is what most teams experience most of the time.
We may very well struggle in 2029, but that will depend on the quality on the above list and how well our new coaching panel performs.
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2026 1st
2026 2nd
Cochrane compo
AFL compo pick
Merrett trade (2 picks maybe)
Ridley trade
2027 1st
2027 2nd
More compo picks?
More trades?
Having/getting 10 seems certainly possible.
But if we had so many, I’d be sure we’d probably burn some to move up the order and/or probably burning 2 picks on matching bids as well.
I assumed redman & ridley were traded. maybe 8 picks below 30 and 2 in the 30s. who knows? it’s just guesswork what picks we’ll get, but I was suggesting we’ll clear some players out and bring in 10 new players.
edit - also twomey suggested players like parish could be traded to Devils for a high pick that tassie must trade, and we’d pay his salary. Hird was on the panel and you could see his eagerness for the contract to be signed yesterday.
Given that high bids on Bewick and Darwish will probably canabalise a number of first rounders, plus possibly low (trade) returns for several of those players, I think 10 top 30 picks in 2026 and 2027 is optimistic.
I agree with the bolded part. But I think we’ll still be putting very important pieces into the group in 2028 and 2029, and struggling to get good free agents.
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I’d note:
- You only have 8 up until you hit “more compo picks and more trades”.
- That getting Bewick and Darwish is likely to cannablise a number of picks. I can imagine they would take all of our 2027 first and second picks, a Ridley 2027 first and a Merrett 2027 first (given both are likely to be late). Which wipes out another line from above.
- That I think there is a big chance we combine some of those seconds to move up the draft.
I do agree if the AFL gives more assistance in 2027 (either easier matching, a first attached to our first or the middle of round 1) it becomes easier to hit 10.
Lol I did say all those things
I feel very bullish about our future midfield core.
The combination of Robey, Sharp, Farrow, Bewick, Kako, and Caldwell inside the contest provides a formidable foundation. Within six years, that group is good enough to win us a premiership, IMO. Then you’ve got Vigo on the ruck—he’s a bit skinny right now, but man, he’s athletic and has some nice kicking skills. Plus, Clarke on the wing brings some real grunt.
This segment of the list is developing exceptionally well. Acquiring 2 or 3 additional pieces should complete the group.
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We need another late ruck pick to develop.
We need a developing KPD of high quality.
We need some serious pace and X factor around the contest and up forward.
We need to keep increasing our foot skills across the park.
We need to keep building diversity around to footy in options we can throw in the middle.
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We’re two key defenders short, as we have been for the past decade. Need a classy half forward (Arki Butler), a ruck (HHV) and a genuine small forward.
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I agree on two KPDs, but disagree on the ruck.
Maybe Gerryen CHB. Great kick. Yes I want him fwd/ruck. But maybe?
I hope he plays an AFL game soon!
He is my reason not to draft HVH, we really need a good assessment on him. If he has the chance to debut and impact to take over from Wright. Then we really have two rucks, two ruck forwards and can focus on other areas of the ground. So, in my opinion. Finding out and making a considered decision on his future is one of our biggest decisions we need to make this off season. It’s also why I would have like him to get 2-3 games this year.
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