Yikes 
Well. Good to be able to put a Blitz handle behind the Flight Plan podcast @Tbone
Wow
Haha they may need to give me some of that sweet podcast money, but unfortunately itās not me.
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I agree that Tom Edwards and Jye Menzie are irreplaceable.
We need a properly fast small/outside forward. Doesnāt really matter how many goals, they need to create space and take away space - Guelfi isnāt fast enough to do either. Does finish fairly well and heās good in tight, but thatās about it. Done amazingly well to get this many years with this output & injury history.
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I will say if he kept the same level he played at in 2025, he wouldnāt really be on the radar. Not that he was great, but he undeniably dropped off.
Average = good depth.
His only issue is that he isnāt durable. Heās a player that you can afford to carry in your best 22 - he provides good pressure, can still kick goals, and most importantly, one of very few who cracks in hard.
"The game is as tough as it has ever been. You only need to go to Essendon, Richmond, West Coast, North Melbourne, a couple of others perhaps to see that. You see whatās happened with St Kilda, itās nearly like youāve got to do something absolutely out of the box radical to break this mould of getting yourself out of the bottom eight or 10 sides in the competition and give yourself a chance to get into the top part.
"I think itās a concern for the competition. If youāre fortunate enough, right at this point in time, to be in the top echelon, I donāt think thereās a club and their board sitting there and saying to themselves that the strategy is to rebuild, go to the bottom, rebuild through the draft ā¦ itāll never happen again, unless something changes.
"For those clubs that are unfortunately in the bottom bracket of clubs at the moment, trying to rebuild your club through the draft is as tough as it has ever been. For mine, there needs to be an understanding from the League of how difficult it is. There needs to be an understanding from the general public around how difficult it is.
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Heās right bottoming out and rebuilding via the draft is not a viable option anymore look at what Saints did last year.
AFL needs to do something so teams at the bottom can excelrate their rebuilds
FA that joins a bottom 5 club gets extra signing bonus
The bottom clubs get access to the first 2 rounds of the draft.
Some of the things AFL can do
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Guelfi can also play as a defensive forward too - which is valuable when done well.
He hasnāt really delved into the issue.
He touched on academies which is definitely an issue, but teams just need to force the academies and F/S picks to pay maximum value. I think thereās more to it than just that.
I do think you canāt just rely on coaches on their own to develop a whole list of 18 to 22 year olds. You need veterans around. Even if itās about the other things like preparing for a senior game, priming a player to be ready for a match sim, how to recover from aches and pains away from the club, etc. Thereās also the nuance of trying to push yourself to do more without your body breaking down and vice versa not working hard enough so your body can withstand the next time you push yourself. Striking the balance is something a footballer will pass on from his experience, not something a S&C coach or trainer will measure based on kmās and speed in a particular session. The player needs to know how far they can push their body. And obviously, players will let their personal ambitions get in the way which is when S&C needs to intervene.
I did find it interesting that at the end of Clarkeās first year (2023), they got rid of their elderly players. Cunnington, Goldy, Hall and Ziebell. Then at the end of 2024, they brought in Daniel, Darling and Parker. The 2023 way is what a high majority of Blitzers would do in a heartbeat. The 2024 would not be received well.
The main thing with the additions is they put one in each part of the ground. One forward, one mid and the other off the backline. It shows they needed as much on field coaching as they needed off field.
I found it weird when a bit of pressure came their way after 3 50+ beatings in 3 weeks early last year. They were still a bottom 4 team, yet Kingy kept bleating āI thought they were past thisā. They werenāt. And they followed that up with two more 50+ beltings in 3 games later in the year. For me, the biggest list error was trading a future 1st for a late 1st and early 2nd pick on draft night. They obviously thought theyād push up the ladder, but it didnāt happen which is probably why Kingy thought they were āpast thisā.
Iām expecting them to be more competitive this year and take a small leap this year. Getting within 2 or 3 games of 10th should be achievable. But still get the odd belting here and there. Especially against top 4 and top 8 teams. They just arenāt to that level yet.
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Iād also add that using the rules hawthorn rebuilt under with Clarkson, north would have an extra 5 top 5 picks, which probably wouldnāt hurt (something like Logan McDonald, Finn Callaghan, Bailey Humphrey, Nick Watson, and Sid Draper). You need some experience around the place for sure, but north over the last few years havenāt been noticeably lighter on for experienced players than the hawks were leading up to, and including, 2008.
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You are correct. The Hawks had as many oldies when they went back to the draft.
It depends on when they started their rebuild and at what stage were they at the same place as North is right now.
In the article it mentions 2004 when they first had their extra picks. Thatās North in 2023. For 2025 he brought in the oldies.
So 2025 North oldies v 2006 Hawthorn oldies
North had Darling, Parker, Corr, McDonald, Daniel and Tucker.
Hawks had Everitt, Barker, Vandenberg, Smith and Dixon.
The Hawks cut all of these guys within two years and Iād expect North to cut theirs across the next few years too.
Was there a cap on Football Department spending back then? Maybe they could do it back then with such few oldies around, but canāt now.
Also, the Hawks hit on a few picks before going to the draft. Trading up in the draft and taking Hodge and Sam Mitchell in 2001, then taking Sewell in 2002 meant these guys had some decent development into them until the next wave came on and pushed the club forward.
I think the way the Hawks rebuilt their current list is closer to the mark of how teams will go. Make clever trades without trading away too much and get some luck at the draft. Coupled together with the experience within the list, a solid coaching staff and a club willing to sit through the ups and downs of a rebuild and you can work your way back up the ladder.
I recall reading somewhere that there was a thought that the Hawks may have ācome out of their rebuildā too quickly. Iām not sure you can micro manage it and time it a particular way. You just ride it out and see where it gets you. It could get you a 1993 premiership, a 2008 premiership, a few shots at it like the Saints through the 2010s, sneak a premiership like the Bulldogs did in 2016 or not even get close enough often enough like Carlton.
The interesting test case is Richmond though. They went aggressive. But even last year, they had Prestia, Lynch, Broad, McIntosh, Vlastuin, Nankervis and Short on their list and getting a good majority of their games whilst playing the kids. Theyāre barely through the worst of it and have been last and second last the last two years. Itāll be interesting to see how long they stay around the bottom and how they work their way out of it.
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Agree with Clarko here. Rebuilding through the draft is so much less effective. In 2004 the 2nd round started at pick 20. (16 teams and 3 priority picks)
In 2024, it was 28. (Last year 26, in 2023 it was 30!). So not only is the wooden spooner getting a player 8 spots lesser in quality in the draft, 8 other clubs have been able to get a better player than them. Every time a club above them loses a free agent, teams below get shafted.
Add to that, the Academy/NGA players that are not available.. Then the numerical aspect of 18 vs 16 clubs diluting the draft hand (in a pure draft the wooden spooner gets 1, 19, 37, 55, 73.. now vs vs 1, 17, 33, 49, 65.. in a 16 team comp).
Its farked. I think its far harder now to climb the ladder than it used to be.
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Lock out the top 4 teams from the first 2 rounds of the draft.
Put a limit on how many FA a top team can take in one year eg; Brisbane can only pick one Draper or Allen.
Bottom team loses a FA their compo pick doesnāt get wiped out if they bring in a FA
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Maybe it needs to be top 8 picks go to the bottom 8 and then restart again so 18th gets pick nine, 17th gets pick ten and so on.
That way the first 16 picks got to bottom eight sides.
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Yes.
Yes.
Mmm.. You would end up in a situation where the teams at the bottom of the ladder swap players and get a compo pick each. Ie say last year we send Draper to WC and get a compo pick. WC send Allen to us and get a compo pick.
On the one hand, itās a good thing that bottoming out isnāt a golden ticket to success. It means teams will have a crack each year and it disincentives blowing up the list and tanking.
But the draft has become a farce. Itās barely a ādraftā any more. The afl needs to invest in academies themselves and return the draft to what it was meant to be.
The drafting of Hobbs then Tsatas and then re-signing of Parish is some of the dumbest list management any club has ever seen.
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Depressing watchinf Gold Coast.
We have a list compareable to a VFL side in comparison.
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