List build - where are we? Where are we going next (Part 1)

Could have sworn it was a third rounder

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Who should we trade out?

I doubt there is anyone of any real value that you would get consensus on Blitz for them to go. The only real area of “surplus” is tall backs, and few would agree to Hurley going, and none of the others would get much back (even Francis).

I’d actually have a look at Chris Yarran for a rookie list spot.

Seems like he has cleaned up his life and I doubt you would find a more impactful player on minimum wage anywhere.

Worst case scenario he heads back to Perth early like Eades and we aren’t really disadvantaged.

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Mate. You cant be serious.

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Yeah but next year’s looks better.

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No.

The last 5 years it has.

its rubbish

And this is patently untrue. There have been a number of drafts which have been highly rated, and history has shown this was correct. A number of drafts fall into the opposite bracket.

Sure, some are mischaracterised, but nowhere near often enough to be able to say people don’t know anything about the draft strength. And frankly, if the guys who are paid to identify better players for higher picks can’t even compare quality across years, you would want to question the entire system a bit.

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Super long post time.

My general impression is that drafts used to get talked about as strong more often than they are now, but in a way that suggests it’s a result of much better coverage for the average fan. When I was first interested all that was available were, at best, highlights reels a few weeks out from the draft, and only for the top 20 or so players. There was a natural tendency for people to see that and be impressed with the talent. Now it’s really quite easy to see most of the champs games, general play clips (rather than just highlights) of a ton of players, plus a TAC Cup game every week. You can watch all the top talent butcher the ball, miss shots for goal, go missing for a quarter, fail to lay a tackle, and all the other bad stuff. In addition there’s also a lot more opinions from amateurs and rank amateurs alike. Nowadays there’ll always be someone who’s watched a decent number of games who thinks it’s a bad draft for one reason or another and be willing to write passionately and at length about it. Separating those who know what they’re talking about from those who don’t is not necessarily an easy task, not least because for some people it’s a matter of waiting a few years and seeing how their opinions shake out.

I think it’s also true that the rate of “next year’s crop is better” has gone up in recent years, and that’s simply down to the fact that they used to be able to draft 17 year olds (some, not all). It used to be a lot of those underage guys who were super impressive would have just been drafted this year, now people have to pine after them and imagine how good they’ll be in twelve months time.

On top of all that, there’s way more access to list managers and recruiters than there used to be. It used to be that there was just Kevin Sheehan saying how amazing every player was, or quotes from junior coaches saying every player was more impressive than Judd as a junior. Now you can hear recruiters say it’s even from 10-25 and really drops away after 40, or that there’s not much tall talent compared to previous years. Or perhaps there’s a lot of upside players but not many certainties (is one of those weaker or stronger than the other?). Without having the context of hearing the same recruiting managers’ opinions on previous drafts, it’s impossible to know if they’re saying it’s a weak draft or they’re just a bit of a gloomer. Maybe they really like inside bulls and the top mids are all outside runners, so they don’t rate the first round talent. Doesn’t make it a weak draft if you don’t need inside bulls. And that’s assuming they’re not hedging when they answer in the first place.

Next you have to talk about what weak means. A top line first round that drops away after pick 20 is arguably a strong draft but a shallow one. A mediocre first two rounds that still has decent talent into the 70s is arguably a deep but weak draft. It could be a strong draft for talls but weak for mids, there could be a dozen great mids but none with breakaway pace. In 2013 there was a lot of talk that it was very even from 15-30 and nobody was emphatic on whether that meant it was a weak group or a strong group. Turns out it was surprisingly strong all the way to the bottom at around pick 60 but also has the least players drafted of any draft in the last 5 years. Every draft has its actual strengths and weaknesses and its perceived strengths and weaknesses, but mostly people just use one word to describe it, which can then be misleading if people have different perceptions on what that word means.

Then there’s the year to year considerations of the supporters of individual clubs. If you’ve got pick 1 and there’s no stand out pick one because there’s 4-5 good but not amazing players, it can come across as a weak draft even if the entirey of the first round would be top 5 picks any other year. If you need a ruckman and a tall forward and it’s a midfielder’s draft, it feels like a weak draft. Conversely if you’ve ended up with 4-5 first round picks it can feel like a strong draft just because you spend more time thinking about and watching the very best players to form opinions.

In summary: it’s always a weak draft to someone, and now you’re more likely to hear them say it.

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Great post, but with the proviso that the 2003 draft was just plain crap by any definition. :stuck_out_tongue:

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What the bet we draft a half-back flanker that can one day go into the midfield with our first pick.

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Welcome to Essendon Nick Coffield?

POS: Midfielder/half-back, Ht 190cm, Wt 83kg, DOB 23/10/1999
From Northern Knights/Vic Metro

Coffield is a player whose stocks have steadily risen across the year to the point he will be in the mix as a top-10 pick by the end of the season. He’s got a bit going for him: he’s tall, he’s versatile and can play in the midfield or across half-back, he’s quick for his size, and he generally uses the ball neatly. Coffield is also captain of the Northern Knights, so ticks the leadership box. He had a good head-to-head battle with Jaidyn Stephenson at TAC Cup level several weeks ago, and can combine a defensive mindset with some attacking play when in that role.

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Welcome to the best football club in the world Nick.

Uncanny

LOL.
Lock him in.

That’s Disco’s fanfic, not a real draft profile.

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If we can’t get a decent footballer like kelly rockliff or a young hopper then I’m calling jackets Mr Melish from now on.

I have heard it for the last 10 years. Always guranteed to hear “next year’s draft is a super draft”.

Don’t know where you have heard that because the people in the know definitely haven’t said it.
With the technology and data available now it’s a lot more hit than miss. For a couple of years they have been predicting this years not to be as good