This started off as a post for the trade targets thread, but morphed into more a list build post, so I have put it in here instead.
I think you are right that now is time to go all in, our 25 and under group is looking very promising and if we put another couple of planks in place we will have a side that is ready to peak from next year onwards for at least 5 years.
But I don’t think we have a problem yet with any major holes in the list, and we have patched up a couple already. The thing more to watch is managing large numbers of players the same age as the list gets older, and having to retire them around the same time, but I don’t think have any major problems there yet either, and as time goes on, it will probably even out further.
What does make a lot of sense to try to concentrate the players in the age group where they are already early in their prime, rather than have too many developing players, and too many older players who aren’t best 22, so you have a deeper list in terms of players who are ready to go and will be for some time.
This approach also creates the potential to have more players who are trade worthy and who can also be covered if the functioning list is deep enough. What Dodoro has done right in recent times is get a bumper crop of young ones in recent times who he can build on with trading in the right players.
To illustrate this I have listed in age order the 25 and under players at the moment:
1999 - (19 -20)
Trent Mynott
Jordan Houlahan
1998 (20 - 21)
Jordan Ridley
Sam Draper
Dylan Clarke
Brandon Zerk-Thatcher
Josh Begley
Andrew McGrath
Kobe Mutch
1997 (21-22)
Mason Redman
Matt Guelfi
Aaron Francis
Darcy Parish
1996 (22-23)
Kyle Langford
Luke Lavender
Jayden Laverde
Conor McKenna
Jake Long
1995 (23-24)
Zach Merrett
Orazio Fantasia
1994 (24-25)
Martin Gleeson
Adam Saad
Jake Stringer
Joe Daniher
James Stewart
1993 (25-26)
Michael Hartley *
Devon Smith
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
In the 25 and under group (the above 28 players) - I think we have 14 players 25 and under that are already (in bold) best 22 and 6 who could challenge for a best 22 place during the course of next year (bold italics)and 2 more on the way for 2020 (in italics) and jury is still out on the remaining 6.
Having 22 players in this age group of AFL quality with 14 of them best 22 players is very healthy, in terms of keeping a side together for a long enough to know how each other plays inside out, and hopefully function as a well oiled machine in years to come.
(* Hartley is controversial, I think his kicking could be a weapon in 2019, but not all would agree, and Hooker would have to go forward - but 198cm 100kg+ defenders don’t grow on trees, and he would be an important match up if Hooker wasn’t available down back and we had to take on Tex Walker or the like).
In the over 26 age group (the below 14 players) I would say there are only 4 players in this group who I expect to still be in our best 22 by the end of next season (bold) and 4 who are best 22 now by could be challenged by the end of the year (bold italics) and 5 who are AFL quality depth and one (McNiece) who may not be but perhaps still has some upside.
1992 (26-27)
Dyson Heppell
Ben McNiece
1991 (27-28)
Matt Dea
Patrick Ambrose
Travis Colyer
1990 (28-29)
Shaun McKernan
Mitch Brown
Michael Hurley
David Zaharakis
1989 (29-30)
Tom Bellchambers
David Myers
1988 (30-31)
Cale Hooker
Matthew Leuenberger (is still our second best ruckman and now fully fit)
1987 (31-32)
Mark Baguley (in our best at the moment, can’t discount him until he starts to drop off)
In terms of list holes, we could afford to get more players born in 1999, but we can do that over the next couple of year especially if Mynott and Houlahan don’t come on. We could use a player or two born in 1995 where our draft sanctions are showing a little. It is interesting to note that all of our players born back to 1995 are all draftees, for those born in '94 we have 2 who were drafted and 3 who were traded in, and those born in '93 were either traded in or drafted when over 22 YO’s. So the only player left from the 2011 draft is Bags who came in as a mature player despite us offloading 9 players that year, the draft was a weak after GWS took most of the cream, with Kav being our top pick and Jerrett our second. From this point of view Chad Wingard makes sense, because that is not an overcrowded age group for us.
So in reality holes are not that hard to fill if there are draft misses (or picks are traded away), and in some ways it can be a bigger problem with too many best 22 players being the same age because they are likely to drop off at a similar time, making it harder to keep the team performing at a higher level.
So ideally Dodoro would be aiming at 2 to 4 AFL quality players in each year level up to the 30 and over age group. 1994 is our only really over achieving year, with 5 quality players (only 2 drafted) and '98 looking extremely promising with 5 drafted players looking very promising and 2 more who may make it.