Neuvo Classicos

[Captain_Jack]

From the Brad Scott the Job thread in The Hangar a long analytical post by Blummers 32 that should inspire much more comment than it has generated so far.

@Blummers32

Here are some more stats…

	2021	2022	Comments
Games	22	14
For Avg	88.8	87.9	We are scoring 1 point less
Against Avg	81.4	82.1	We are giving up 1 point more
Goals For Avg	13.2	12.9	We’re kicking around the same number of goals this year
Goals Against Avg	12.5	11.7	Opposition are kicking 1 less goal (which probably shows they are getting to tougher spots to kick from).
Behinds For Avg	9.1	8.8	We’re kicking around the same number of points this year
Behinds Against Avg	8.6	9.5	Opposition are kicking 1 more behind (which probably shows they are getting to tougher spots to kick from).
Kicks For	220.5	222.5	Slower game style, yet we have more kicks
Kicks Against	228.6	222.6	Slower game style means the opposition doesn’t have as many kicks
Marks For	96.6	103.1	Slower game style = more marks. We’re not taking on as much risk.
Marks Against	102.5	103.4	Even though it’s a slower game style, the opposition still get 1 more mark
Handballs For	162.9	152.6	Far less hot potato footy
Handballs Against	155.9	148.3	Is this showing we aren’t being drawn to the contest as much, so teams aren’t trying to handball through us?
Tackles For	60.3	55.4	Well down on tackles
Tackles Against	51.6	47.8	Opposition is also well down on tackles
1% For	49.0	44.8	Well down on 1%ers
1% Against	50.5	43.6	The opposition is well down on that stat too
CP For	135.5	130.2	Well down on contested possessions
CP Against	140.9	134.1	Opposition is ditto
Clangers For	58.1	52.4	We’re playing a much safer game style so far less clangers
Clangers Against	61.0	54.1	Clangers are also well down
Inside 50s For	55.0	50.7	Far less indside 50s for us, but this doesn’t affect our final scoreline
Inside 50s Against	53.0	56.5	We give up more inside 50s, but it doesn’t hurt us on the scoreboard
Marks I50s For	12.5	11.9	Even though we’re down on inside 50s, we still manage the same number of marks. We’re far more efficient going forward.
Marks I50s Against	12.3	12.1	Inside 50s against are up, yet it doesn’t show up on the marks.

One thing to be mindful of…
The 2023 stats don’t count for the typical winter games. When marks are down, contested possession is up, scores are down, clangers are up, etc.

The only ‘for’ statistics we’ve improved on is kicks and handballs. The rest we’ve gone backwards.
The ‘against’ statistics is a slightly different story but that can be a factor of our slower game style we’re playing.

Most of the stats are skewed because of the slower game style we’re playing. It affects our stats and also the opposition stats.
Our inside 50s are down by 8%, but our scoring is down by 1%. The opposition inside 50s is up by 6%, yet goals are down by 6%. It’s obvious, whatever we are doing defensively, isn’t impacting on the scoreboard indicating we’re pushing teams closer to the boundary or further from goal.

My bias this year is that we aren’t gut running like other teams. In the past I’ve hated watching players just jog back as the ball is transitioned. Watching other games more this year (previously I rarely bothered) most other teams do the same. If they can’t impact the play, they tail off a bit so they have separation should the ball be turned over. It still annoys me when I see it though.
Without the detailed data, it’s tough to tell, but it looks like we we are more effective with when we go fast and when we settle down. I think we’re fitter, but the improvement isn’t up to league best standard yet which is fair enough given we coming from a long way back. Our two worst results (Brisbane and Freo) showed the lack of fitness with fade outs in the end.

For me, we are looking better, but the results (win-losses) don’t quite show it.
In 2021, we lost to Hawthorn and Carlton, but that gets balanced out up by beating the Bulldogs and playing 1 less game.
This year, I don’t think we’ve had that surprising loss. The Saints is the closest one, but they were at their peak at that time and aren’t the same team as they are now. The genuinely surprising victory (eliminating the Essington doom expectations) was the Melbourne game.
To me, the eye test indicates the gap between our best and worst is closer this year and the consistency through a game is the same. There’s also been more of an ability to arrest a run. Yes, Freo got us, so did the Pies, so did Geelong, so did Port. But we’re not quite up to these teams yet and I don’t think more than 5% of Essendon fans would be thinking we are.

I think the next month will be a good measure of where we sit. I don’t think we’ll beat Port but I hope it isn’t a one sided game. We must be competitive in that game. The Adelaide game should be a win, but their play against the Pies this last weekends makes that more questionable. I also don’t think we win the Geelong game either. The Bulldogs midfield strength has historically been a problem for us. We’ve snuck through some wins against them (2021 was great watching) but we’ve also copped some hammerings from them too (2019 anyone?). They also have a dangerous forward line (I’m sure that’ll be perfect time for a Weightman + JUH scorefest) that can expose us.

All I want to see is us forcing the opposition to earn the win. But the Essington is strong in us. I wouldn’t be surprised if it shows up during this period and we get smacked by 10 goals somewhere.