Land releases, immigration, lack of fiscal stimulus, lower taxation.
Then there’s reversing the responsible lending laws from the royal commission.
Then there is incentivising property speculation, Don’t buy one property buy three and pay less tax. Who do you think pays for that? The rest of us taxpayers!
Oh then there’s the capital gains tax discounts, weak foreign ownership laws.
Hmmm where else do I go. The government sets up the game.
On a credit squeeze that will happen through actions of bigger central banks than ours trying to put a lid on inflation. It will be contagious. Or we just have a lot of inflation here.
Same effect.
Do you care about paying twice the amount for a bottle of Milk or loaf of bread or 200 dollars more a week on a mortgage?
That’s the uncomfortable choice coming along.(maybe not milk and bread but other things)
I don’t care who it is buying, I care how much rope they have been given by the spivs running the country.
Apologies if your an estate agent or are in housing but it’s beyond a joke.
Even experienced people in housing know that those in power have left the credit tap on too long. They won’t be upgrading the bmw again for a little while.
Anyway this needs to prob stop, sorry it’s a housing thread convo. Sorry mods.
scarcity of properties is absolutely fueling new home buyers to go to those estates. because news flash in livable areas a lot of properties are rented out!
Moderate interest rate rises alone are not going to stop house prices rising. There are too many upward drivers right now. Cost of materials for building are up 30%, and tradies are in such demand, their prices are up a similar amount. If houses cost 30% more to build, people will buy second hand homes until they are near the price of a new build. We are heading into a high inflationary period. During that time, money sitting in a bank will lose value. People who have money know that to keep it, they need to invest it where it will at least keep pace with inflation. Property has a long track record of matching or out-pacing inflation. The most populous age group in Australia are 25-35YO’s, and 35YO is the average age of first home buyers in Australia. So we will have a surge of people wanting houses that will last up to 10 years. Older people that may have looked at retirement villages pre-COVID and let houses back into the market, are more likely to want to stay in their own property longer, for at least a few years, after seeing the death rates in elderly living lately. As baby boomers decline in numbers, there will be a fairly large transfer of wealth to younger generations, who are likely to invest at least some in property.
I’m sure there are others I’ve missed, but I just don’t see how housing prices drop without major intervention, and major intervention will not just stop housing prices rising, it will kill all the satellite jobs that housing sales and renovations, and property development create, and carry a high risk of sending us into a recession.
Get interest rates up to 5-6% and property prices will reduce a little…may send a few to the wall, but may also mean that people with term deposits might get a couple of % interest again.
There has also been people from MLB / SYD moving to country locations / municipalities pushing prices up, but now looking to head back to the city…so that might help too.
Oldies moving into aged care facilities or dropping off will assist with redistribution of wealth and spending and free housing up.
Governments aren’t responsible for this ridiculously cheap money, nor for the money printing? I actually don’t disagree with your post overall. You’d be silly if you were a boomer, and or wealthy not to take advantage. You have to operate in the system in which you live. I don’t have kids, and have been fortunate enough to accumulate a reasonable deposit, mostly due to being a massive tight ■■■■, but if circumstances were different, no way in hell. This is why these days it’s not enough to literally just go to work, unless you earn some astronomical salary. You have to start doing things such as investing to try and get ahead.
Reading about Crude Oil futures today. Looks like you can purchase contracts back at pre covid levels(around 70 odd dollars a barrel) around the middle of next year.
Do with that info what you will. I found it kind of interesting.
I think that lines up with the usual property cycle (accounting for 2020 being a gap year).
I doubt it’ll be that much of a correction.
Simply because the demand for certain areas will remain whilst others will self correct.
I prefer to look at the Herron Todd White monthly analysis than a bank’s report.
And I generally ignore news reports about it because because they over accentuate the property value and sale issue.
Unfortunately, if you’re a first home buyer, you’re best shots are out where the estates are growing. Buying inner city is restricted due to demand and cost.
Are rent soft? I think they are pretty high in lifestyle spots.
There are HEAPS of rentals on the market near me.(inner city sydney) but I think it’s tough as near the beach.
Might be a good buying opportunity to get some quality inner city apartments. Surely there will be a temporary bump in migrants when doors open. “Temporary migrant inflation from a low base?”
There’s been a huge house price boom in rural areas. I suspect the work from home lifestyle will become an expectation going forwards, with companies allowing it as a way to gain talent. A sizable portion of knowledge workers will want nothing to do with commuting daily into the CBD and will refuse to return to the old ways.
Do employees have that sort of power in many Australian companies? Especially knowledge workers?
I have another prediction
Companies will pay more for employees in person for competitive advantage.
Ongoing work that can be done from home will accelerate offshoring.
In fact I believe(don’t quote this) that we are in the final stages of finalising wider access to the Australian job market to particularly Indian nationals. At least in IT and probably accounting and call centre roles.
At least that’s the Indian point of view.
I believe our trade ministers are over there right now.
