Whilst our last 2 weeks have been excellent has this been sudden or have we been improving for a while?
More importantly, what does our form say about our prospects, not for just making the Finals, but doing some damage in September?
When we entered the Bye (we were in the last group of 6 to get the Bye) we were struggling to both move the ball and score. Sitting at 4-5, we were not looking like finalists I think it's fair to say.
So, in the 7 rounds since the Bye - which seems to be a key marking point in our season, how have well have we gone? Here is a ladder based on the those last 7 rounds.
Position
Team
Points
W
L
%
For
Against
1
Fremantle
28
7
0
185.4%
710
383
2
Sydney
28
7
0
172.8%
724
419
3
Hawthorn
24
6
1
125.3%
758
605
4
North Melbourne
20
5
2
129.3%
644
498
5
Essendon
20
5
2
127.2%
608
478
6
<span style="color:#ff0000;">Geelong</span>
20
5
2
106.8%
616
577
7
<span style="color:#ff0000;">Adelaide</span>
16
4
3
116.5%
691
593
8
<span style="color:#ff0000;">Port Adelaide</span>
12
3
4
119.7%
688
575
9
<span style="color:#ff0000;">Collingwood</span>
12
3
4
105.0%
590
562
10
<span style="color:#ff0000;">Richmond</span>
12
3
4
96.8%
600
620
11
West Coast
12
3
4
88.6%
537
606
12
Western Bulldogs
12
3
4
85.9%
541
630
13
Brisbane Lions
12
3
4
76.8%
483
629
14
Gold Coast
8
2
5
84.5%
578
684
15
<span style="color:#ff0000;">GWS</span>
8
2
5
78.2%
570
729
16
Carlton
4
1
6
93.0%
653
702
17
<span style="color:#ff0000;">Melbourne</span>
4
1
6
63.8%
402
630
18
St. Kilda
0
0
7
45.3%
392
865
<p> </p>
I have marked the teams we have played in that time in red.
We are sitting 5th, a small percentage break behind North on 4th - and a big % break on Geelong sitting 6th look a very solid 5-2. Whilst we haven't played any of the Top 4 of that period we have played the 5 teams immediately below us in that period for a 4-1 record. We have got to where we are by beating our immediate challengers so 5th position is actually an accurate reflection of our form and well earned.
Our two losses were both situations where we snatched defeat from the jaws of victory against both Geelong & Melbourne.
What the assessment also shows is:
1. How much on the edge Geelong really is. Their poor percentage is really only boosted by their big win over the weekend against Melbourne. The Cats are very lucky to be 5-2 and could easily be 2-5 given they won games against ourselves and the Blues when then didn't look the better team on the night. They fell in at the end against the Bulldogs who would have won had they functioned just a little more cleanly up forward on the night. I would be very confident playing them in the first week of the finals. You can only ride your luck for so long and what the Cats get away with during the H&A season they get found out with during finals - hence why they've only won one final in the last 2 years and they had to scrape through with that win against a young Port Adelaide thanks to brilliant games from Steve Johnston & Chapman.
2. Other than a meritorious win against an injury hit Hawks who lost Hill 10 minutes before the game and Sewell 10 minutes into it, the Roos have been patchy, their record boosted during this period by 2 big percentage boosting wins against the bottom two teams of this period. Their Hawks win mirrored in some ways North's other "big win" of the year against Port Adelaide (also at Etihad) where Port, travelling well during Q3, lost both Monfries (starring that game) & Wingard to injury in the space of 5 minutes and the game then turned. North can't expect the opposition to be hit by twin injuries in finals to help them over the line. We also showed in Round 1 we are a class above them. Their best player is still Harvey at 36 which is a little bizarre. Whilst I would be wary of playing them in September I certainly wouldn't fear them. As long as we are on our game on the night and don't have multiple injuries I would expect us to win.
3. The Hawks are living on the edge the way they are playing. The seem to have made up for a poor defence + injuries by playing shoot-out football to win games and produce a 6-1 yield. They have a mediocre defence that is the worst of the Top 9 teams. This does not augur well for them in September if they don't rectify it. In modern football, premierships are won by teams with the very best of defences. Gibson will improve them but Lake has always been a spasmodic player and can't be relied upon. We know what happened in Round 2 and we can take great confidence from that performance and the fact we are now very strong defensively. They would start rightful favourites against us in September but it would be a line ball game and our young forward line improves with every week. A win against them would not surprise.
4. Swans and Freo are a cut above everyone and are an 80% lock-in to play off in the GF. I realistically don't see us beating either of them in September unless we happen to somehow sneak a Melbourne final against Freo.
So, in summary, if we can make it through into September I think we are realistic chance to get to the Preliminary Final weekend but not beyond. We have become superb defensively and that is the key ingredient for all premiership sides. Our young forwards (JD-Carlisle-Ambrose-Z.Merrett) are perhaps not quite there yet and we would need something truly great from the few experienced ones to make the GF....it would be a case of come on down, Paul Chapman.
Our biggest challenge remains actually getting there - the Bulldogs are no pushover and their 3-4 record over the last 7 weeks includes a close loss to the Cats down at Simonds Stadium. Outside of Sydney, this may well be our most difficult game in the last 6 rounds. Gold Coast were already fading before Ablett went down, the Blues are really poor and fading, we owe West Coast big time here in Melbourne and the Tigers are not a good team.
We now have our destiny in our hands, particularly with a forgiving draw ahead of us. There are no excuses for not playing finals this year (left field event aside like you-know-what) and there are no excuses for not winning through to the final 4 if we get there.