Panic Dollars Game 2018 - Who wants to be a Blitzcoin millionaire?


#322

The only Gamers who can still change their investments before R4 team announced are - @Nod @Humble_NSW_Fan @efc1robbo @theDJR


#323

No changes for me, thanks.


#324

im all in on Joe this week


#325

OK, team selection and only 1 change. Apparently it has all been the fast moving, non-listening McKenna’s fault. Glad we got that fixed.

Of the players selected - Geulfi, Begley, Myers and Brown offered the highest return - and only 1 Gamer (Klawdy) was on board any of these.

R4%20Selected

Of the players who were not selected, only Langford, Clarke and McKenna had any investors with 1 investor each.

Sadly for Redbull he was the one investor for both Langford and Clarke. All other investors except Barnz had their picks named.


#326

If the team plays as named, the new funds and rankings will be as in the table below.

@Klawdy will move back into the lead, and @TrevorBix will jump 16 places into 2nd place with a double stress payment.

Trauma investments are the big news this week. More than 50% of Gamers are now into Trauma investments with the first of them due to mature and get paid next week.


#327

Rise of the bix


#328

After glorious victory over the Tarp kings here are updated funds and rankings with full details.

Brown was a late out for Hartley but no Gamers had either so this did not make any difference.

Click on any pic to open slideshow.



Legend:
Colour%20coding


#329

This week
I have no idea when team will be announced for Anzac Day, maybe 26 man squads on Saturday or Sunday. We may get an injury report Tuesday.

I will probably post nervous weekly rates about Thursday.

Also I am changing the Bonus payment rates going forward. This will not effect any current locks - you will still get what was applicable when you locked in. But after four games you are averaging lower returns than I expected, which makes trauma payments a bit too big. I will publish the revised Bonus payments this week with the Nervous rates.


#330

Ah, the winds of change.

I’m delighted to have been on the trauma rates while the going was good.


#331

Without wanting to interfere or suggest we’re allowed to muck around with your rules KFC, I’d been thinking about the trauma payments, and whether they could be linked to the players’ nervous rate.

Could you change the bonus payment so it’s worth double the compounded return for 5 weeks of the player’s weekly return (set at the week the lock was put in place)?

So a gamer who has $100 and places a Trauma lock on a player who’s paying 25% would get about $610.
EG:

100*(1+25%)^5 = $305.18
(305.18 x 2) = $610.35

That might help keep the bonus payments a bit more relative, and would also reward trauma locks on riskier players.


#332

Suggestions always welcome. However, a few points.

I am trying to encourage a reasonable spread of players being invested in - for the last 4 rounds there have been 16-18 different players selected each round. Which is good from an interest point of view. I don’t want every Gamer to be on the same few players. Not linking the Trauma option to the Nervous rates helps with this - for example nobody would pick Heppell as a Nervous option but he is the most popular Trauma option.

As a technical issue it is much easier for the algorithms to only have to call up 1 rate per player each week (or all 10% for trauma). Once I start having to hold multiple rates for every player on the list depending on who invested in them (and when and how) the calculations and data processing becomes much more complicated.

I’m already forecasting things on an equivalent compounding basis. Last year the leader was compounding at nearly 70% per game at this point. This year I knew it would be lower, and my forecast at this point was for the leader to be at almost 52% compounding. However, the leader is only at 47% equivalent compounding for his $100. This gap 52% v 47% is the reason I am changing the bonus rates.

My calcs were OK. I think the main reason the leader is a bit lower than expected this year is because with all the injuries for the first few games, the team picked itself. This means return rates are lower. When there is more competition for spots and the team is less obvious return rates are higher.

I expected to have to tweak the bonus payments a bit. I posted them in a batch first up so Gamers could get a rough guide to what the bonuses would be.


#333

question. Do you get money if your guy plays. Then if he plays well do you get extra?


#334

Nope - you get paid if he is on the final team sheet of 22 that actually play that day. Good or bad makes no difference.


#335

does that include late changes?

because i think conor was replaced by Albert Fish


#336

Appreciate the reply KFC thank you - that makes perfect sense (& I hadn’t factored in the added complexity for your algos).

Looking forward to seeing the new bonus rates.


#337

Out of interest will your rates this week for locks factor in the short turnaround post ANZAC Day?


#338

No. Never. Nor interstate games, nor the bye, nor finals. Some lock periods are easier than others - and some lock periods are better for some players than others who are more likely to be rested. It’s up to you Gamers to factor that into your decisions - you decide when the bonus payments are worth the risk, and which players to lock in and for how long.

I just throw out the bait. You decide whether to chomp on it or not.

Nervous rates (on about 27th April?) will reflect how likely I think players are to play in that next game though.


#339

Here are Nervous and Bonus payment rates for R5 Anzac Day game v Collingwood

R5%20bonus

I don’t know when squad will be named (and investments closed off). Make your own determination and enquiries.

For those interested in seeing what is coming here are the updated Bonus payments up to the Bye R13.

Bonus%20payments%20R1%20to%20R12%20v2

  • The orange section for locks starting up to and including R4 is the same as the last table.
  • All the bonus payments have been smoothed out week to week so there is less jump from 1 week to the next.
  • Anxiety payments are slightly higher than the last table.
  • Stress payments are slightly lower than the last table.
  • Trauma payments are lower than the last table (this is the biggest change).
  • Again these are a guide only, I may change them again if they aren’t suitable. Future changes will not effect anyone with a lock at that time.

#340

I rejoin after Anzac Day right?


#341

Correct - you get out of lock for R6 v Melb. Conor can’t play till R7 tho. You will have to find someone else.