I don’t see the fuss if we draft McCartin at 48 - Too many pigeon-holing him as only a tall/3rd forward - Clubs are good at converting players into specific roles when required - He could end up as a tall defender.
Most clubs run a spine of 2-3 tall defenders, 1-2 ruckmen, 2-3 tall forwards. Say 6 talls on average in the best 22, plus some depth.
Talls are known to take a few years, with the first 4 years being development time. I don’t know what the career length of the average tall is, but say on average they retire at 30. So very roughly, talls have a career that is 1/3 development and 2/3 productive.
This means if 100% of your drafted players became best 22, you could have a mature:rookie ratio of 2:1. But it doesn’t work that way, so it’s going to be more heavily weighted towards youth.
If you have a relatively even age demo, you have 3 players 23-26 and 3 players 27-30. Your youth needs to replace the 3 oldest players. That would mean the time to recruit a replacement tall is when your best 22 player is 27-28. In every 4 year block, you need to find 3 best 22 talls to replace retiring players. Over a 4 year block, you could easily draft 4-6 players and delist a few before you find the right 3.
Now I’ll admit I’m kinda making this up as I go, so lets compare this to the Essendon list and see how delusional my ramblings are…
Firstly, we are slightly top heavy on field, running with 7 talls. We have decent depth in all positions, but relatively few developing players.
Leuenberger 29 *depth
Brown 27 *depth
McKernan 27 *depth
Francis 20 *developing
Ridley 19 *developing
Draper 19 *developing
*Lavender 21 *developing
Recently delisted / traded talls:
So what does this mean…
- Rucks: Leuey and McNernan are depth. Draper looks likely to become the replacement for Belly, with Lavender at the very least a nice backup. We had a crack with Gach, but not every pick is a success. Only draft another ruck in a few years if the young lads aren’t developing.
- Defenders: We have a relatively young group of mature guys with nobody approaching retirement age in the next 4 years. With Ridley and Francis, there is some high end talent awaiting opportunities. Need to draft a tall in 2018 or 2019 to prepare for the retirements of Hurley/Brown/Ambrose.
- Forwards: We need a replacement for Hooker to be ready around 2020. Daniher will take Hooker’s role (in his own way), Stewart will become the second target and a young tall will become the third.
Overall we haven’t turned over much youth of late. The list of talls is really well balanced, despite losing Carlisle and Crameri. We’ve had a damned good success rate with our talls, but even so drafting one this year wouldn’t hurt.
If the decent mids are gone and the most talented player available is a tall forward, we have an upcoming need. If we don’t take one this year we can cover for a year or two, but it will become critical in 2019.
If we pull out a future best 22 player with pick 48 - of any size or type - then we’ve done well.
This draft is almost a free hit in my book. The good work has already been done, anything from here is icing.
I think with 3 easily best 22 players added, any new recruit is highly unlikely to see senior game time in a while. Particularly as our depth is looking pretty good. I therefore think we might take a risky kpp with good upside with one of the picks. I’d doubt it’ll be Mccartin though as he’ll be long gone.
Gary Buckenara says: The Bombers are coming off a big trade period where they addressed a need for a rebound defender in Adam Saad and added to their midfield depth with the addition of Devon Smith, who can play as an inside midfielder, one of the club’s positional needs. Even with the addition of Smith, I think the Bombers still require inside midfielders to replace Jobe Watson and Heath Hocking.
Essendon has a pretty well-balanced list, and is well off for key position players both forward and back but I believe the club does need a few more outside players with speed to suit that fast, high intensity brand of football it plays. Wingers with pace, endurance and good ball use are on the wish list.
DRAFT PICKS: 48, 67, 81
Every club would love to find players with pace, endurance and good ball use and as much as I like Parker, I realise he is a long shot to be picked up by any club. Hopefully if he is picked up it’s by us.
Gary Buckenara says we need inside mids.
Then Gary Buckenara says we need pacey outside wingers.
Gary “Bob each way” Buckenara -says this is how to be a media pundit.
Glad I wasn’t the only one confused reading that. Can only address so many needs at once!
I assume there is no chance that Stephenson drops to 48 with his heart condition?
Could we give him a dodgy groin to go with his heart condition?
To make his groin a sufficient problem for him to drop to 48, you’d need to amputate it.
According to draftguru, Pick 48 has a 52 game average. Making it a better pick historically than numerous earlier picks, including pick 22. (seriously pick 22 has been pretty bloody average, Scott Selwood is probably the best player to be taken there - turn this around please Ridley!)
Pick 48’s of note include Aussie Jones and Darren Milburn, although it has been more slim pickings of late. Personally I rate Bailey Williams who was taken at 48 a couple of years ago.
In short, there are worse picks to have. Sadly we couldn’t slide our pick down to the surprisingly productive pick 56 with it’s 79 game average.
No…let him stay where he is.
Do any of them barrack for the Bombers?
So therefore we just sit back on draft day with a list of guns that we have spoken to and watch other clubs flog themselves over, have a chuckle, and pick the best name that’s remaining on our list.