Russia invades Ukraine - 2 - from 4 May 2022

My mistake

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Oleksandrivka , the Springfield of Ukraine

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I was also surprised they were fighting over New York. The village’s name has changed a few times but what do you think it was once called?

I am hearing on the radio Russia quoted as backing away from use of nuclear weapons. They blame the west for propagating speculation about Russia using them.

Pardon me! Both Putin and Lavrov started this speculation by repeatedly issuing threats of use. When the invasion began, they advised that Russian nuclear forces had gone onto “alert” status.

We need to be careful about this sort of talk. You know, they said no invasion was planned while they massed 180 000 military personnel in Belarus in some kind of “training maneuvres”

In short Putin lies, just like Donald Trump does, maybe even better.

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Tanks protect infantry from big scary stuff. There’s nothing else that can bring the same level of protection and firepower to a fight. Modern tanks have active defences with radars that will shoot down incoming anti tank missiles.

Infantry protect tanks. They push into buildings and forests to eliminate or discourage ambushes. The tank can take out anything scary that the infantry find. The infantry can see anti tank squads much easier than a tank crew looking through a periscope.

Artillery is the king of the battlefield. It needs time to set up and quality reconnaissance giving a firing target. A highly mobile combined arms team can push faster than artillery can easily track. Drones or hidden spotters can make artillery do amazing things. Blind artillery is barely better than a PR effort. Modern combined arms will need anti drone capability to prevent artillery getting a good shot.

Also at play in combined arms are combat engineers, air power, air defence, information sharing and intelligence.

Russia is an AFL team made exclusively of key position players and lumbering tall midfielders. They’re missing x-factor players and speed on the outside.

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There’s a town with a very similar name on the coast just west of Kherson. That’s swapped owners about 87 times in the last 5 weeks.

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The Russian Frigate ‘Admiral Makarov’ Might Be The Juiciest Target In The Black Sea

David Axe02:09am EDT

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‘Admiral Makarov.’

Russian navy photo

More From Forbes

After the dramatic sinking of the missile-cruiser Moskva by a Ukrainian missile battery on April 14, the Russian Black Sea Fleet is down to just three major surface combatants. The best and most important of them might be the new missile-frigate Admiral Makarov .

And that makes the 409-foot Admiral Makarov perhaps the most valuable target for Ukrainian missile crews and drone operators. We don’t know how many of its best Neptune anti-ship missiles the Ukrainian navy has left or whether Kyiv’s TB-2 drones are hunting for the Russian frigate or her Black Sea sisters.

On Thursday and Friday there were reports the Ukrainians had landed a blow with a Neptune and the frigate was on fire. There was no immediate hard evidence to back up the rumors, although one blurry video that circulated online does seem to depict a warship in flames.

In any event, it’s apparent Russian fleet commanders appreciate the danger. There’s evidence Admiral Makarov ’s skipper has been taking pains to keep her away from the Ukrainian coast.

Distance could help to protect Admiral Makarov . But that same distance precludes the frigate from actually doing her job, protecting the Black Sea Fleet’s other vessels from air- and missile-attack.

Commissioned in 2017, Admiral Makarov is the third, last and most modern vessel in her class. All three of the Admiral Grigorovich -class frigates belong to the Black Sea Fleet. Armed with 24 Buk medium-range surface-to-air missiles and eight Kalibr cruise missiles, all in vertical cells, the frigates can escort other vessels and also attack targets on land.

Admiral Makarov and her sisters are not big ships. Displacing just 4,000 tons of water and accommodating 200 crew, they’re less than half the size of the U.S. Navy’s main surface combatants, the Arleigh Burke -class destroyers.

But the frigates are about as big as Russia can make a non-nuclear surface combatant these days, for reasons that—ironically—have everything to do with the current war. Throughout the Soviet era and for years after the USSR’s collapse, Russia acquired its big marine engines from Ukraine.

After Russia in 2014 invaded and annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula—including the port of Sevastopol where Admiral Makarov now is based—Kyiv barred certain exports to Russia, including the marine engines Russia requires for any fast, conventional vessel displacing more than 5,000 tons or so.

Which is to say, after 2014 the Russian navy struggled to build big warships. That made it impossible to replace, like for like, the biggest Soviet-vintage ships such as Moskva , which displaced 12,000 tons.

Moskva was the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet. She was old and hadn’t gotten a lot of major updates through her long service beginning in 1983. But she was stacked with missiles: 16 Vulkan anti-ship missiles, 64 S-300 long-range surface-to-air missiles and 40 Osa missiles for short-range air-defense.

All those missiles couldn’t save Moskva when a Ukrainian battery on land, perhaps near the strategic port of Odessa, put two Neptune missiles in her port side. She burned, then sank while under tow, taking with her potentially scores of her 500 sailors.

Moskva ’s sinking, along with the earlier destruction of the Black Sea Fleet landing ship Saratov following an apparent hit by a Ukrainian ballistic missile, spooked fleet commanders. They pulled back the surviving surface ships.

Many, including one Admiral Grigorovich -class frigate—it’s not clear which—were moored in Sevastopol as recently as Thursday. When the warships do sail from Crimea, they tend to stay 100 miles or so from the Ukrainian coast, potentially keeping them beyond the range of Kyiv’s Neptunes.

Keeping at a safe distance meant the frigates apparently were in no position to help when the Ukrainian navy last week mounted a furious drone assault on the Russian garrison on Snake Island. The tiny hunk of rock, 25 miles off the coast of southwestern Ukraine, helped Kyiv assert some control over the western Black Sea—until the Russians captured it on the first full day of the current war on Feb. 24.

Ukrainian TB-2 drones knocked outRussian air-defenses on the island then went hunting deeper at sea. On Monday, a TB-2 struck two Russian Raptor -class patrol boats with laser-guided missiles, heavily damaging if not destroying both of the 55-foot boats as they motored toward Snake Island.

Without the protection of a frigate, the Raptor s were sitting ducks. In that sense, sinking Moskva —and scaring off the rest of the Black Sea Fleet’s major combatants—was as good as sinking the frigates, too. It doesn’t matter that Russia still has three powerful warships in the Black Sea if those ships can’t, or won’t, risk approaching the Ukrainian coast.

Still, the Ukrainians undoubtedly would love to get a shot at Admiral Makarov and her sisters, if they haven’t already.

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Looks like Tushayev is still alive. That’s a shame.

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Blows my mind how influential a couple of Dutch nerds have been on this conflict. Giving accurate baseline data on Russian losses has absolutely demolished the credibility of the Russian army.

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So what’s the problem here?

Russians don’t have this technology, or the tanks defences are overwhelmed by the volume of anti tank missiles. (Presumably modern weapons are designed to be stealth or harder to defend against. You could almost call it an ‘arms race’)

The gear cost money. Russia has the tech but the only time you’ll see it is on a prototype at the May 9 parade.

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And the sanctions imposed on them post Crimea theft supposedly prevented them being able to manufacture those newer tanks with upgraded tech/capabilities

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Shoots a projectile out of the air 2ms before impact.

2ms.

TWO THOUSANDTHS OF A SECOND.

Bonkers tech.

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Russia appears to be losing this war. It wouldn’t make sense for them to “declare war” on the 9th if that’s the case would it? Or does that give them scope to use more sinister methods?

They are running out of manpower. Declaring war allows mobilisation of conscripts.

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