I call cars land boats
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7.5.22 Update, day 132 of Russian invasion.
Belarus:
Belarusian armed forces continue to prance along the border region with Ukraine. The current crossfit classes are in Gomel region, and are projected to last until July 16 now. They are currently practicing command and control operations but have formed no assault groups that would be necessary to attack Ukraine, but they are succeeding in irritating pedantic forum posters.
Kyiv/ West Ukraine (1):
After many years of deliberation and legal challenges + proclamations, the Communist Party of Ukraine was officially banned from action today.
The CIC of the UA military, Zaluzhny, said that those who have not updated or registered for military service should do so, and that persons of conscription age, conscripts and reservists may travel outside their place of residence only with the permission of the military commissariat. The General staff of the UA military said that the goal is to update the registration data to understand mobilization capabilities in the future.
There has been confusion about this, with Zelensky stating he needs to be consulted before such statements are made publicly, and some clarification forthcoming about a number of exempt individuals who can freely move regions without any advance notice.
It is further stated by UA government ministers that this was mainly directed towards people who change their official residence from one region to another.
An aide to the Peoples Deputy of Ukraine for the Kyiv region was arrested on suspicion of working for the FSB.
Great Britain agreed to support the recovery of Kyiv and its region economically after the war.
Military exercises will be held in the area of the town of Brovary today and tomorrow, and there will be increased checkpoints and military movement.
Sumy/Chernihiv (2):
RU forces continue to consolidate themselves along the border, and fired across the border with artillery. There appears to be no formation of RU assault groups as of yet, or preparations for a renewed ground assault. There were a number of drone dropped explosives and mortar fire on a fertilizer storage facility. In June, ~10 strikes were carried out per day.
France will focus its efforts on the reconstruction of Chernihiv Oblast, while the Baltic states will focus on W Ukraine in the Zhytomyr region.
N Kharkiv (3):
RU forces attempted another assault towards Dementiivka but were repelled. They have attempted almost daily assaults for the past week here, with shelling and artillery fire, although reportedly not in considerable force.
Poland announced it would prioritize focus on rebuilding Kharkiv and the surrounding region after the war.
RU troops have generally launched harassing fires towards UA positions, but attempted another assault out of the Kozacha Lopan strongpoint towards Sosnivka, near Udy and the NW UA closest point to the border
Izyum/Lyman (4):
Russian forces again skirmished towards Slovyansk with artillery and rocket fire, with helicopter air strikes reported along the main highway. RU is trying to consolidate its units for another assault attempt.
RU forces successfully assaulted into the small town of Mazanivka to the NW of Slovyansk, midway between the front lines towards Barvinkove.
Heavy shelling of civilian areas continues in Slovyansk, with consistent MLRS strikes on a marketplace leading to numerous causalities. The mayor has advised what remains of the cities population to evacuate now, while it is still possible to do so relatively safely.
Lysyschansk/Severodonetsk (5):
The Belarusian foreign legion battalion took causalities during a tank battle near Lysyschansk, with the battalion commander KIA as were a number of other soldiers. Several soldiers were captured, and the battalion CO stated to be on the lookout for propaganda statements made under duress. This was the Volat Batallion, with one other battalion also present in the conflict zone.
RU forces continue to shell Severodonetsk despite the UA withdrawal, for unknown reasons.
RU forces have begun demining work in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk to assert further control.
RU troops have launched airstrikes near Siversk, and reportedly continue to fight with UA forces around Bilhorivka to the NE of Siversk.
Popasna/Bakhmut:
RU forces successfully took Spirne, along the Lysychansk/Bakhmut highway, which will force UA troops to withdraw further into the hilly terrain, in order to block an attempted RU sweep along the south towards the highway leading N into Siversk. The situation remains up in the air. (Ben’s comment - subsequent info says this assault was repelled)
RU troops have launched assaults towards Bakhmut to the SE, and are likely attempting to open up multiple lines of attack before any major operations towards the city along its highways.
Donetsk (6):
RU forces continued to shell the front lines in Donetsk, including with MLRS and mortars. RU troops again attacked towards the SW of Donetsk City, into the suburb of Marinka.
RU losses are mounting in terms of men and ammo, especially with the destruction of several arms depots. Reportedly, the local medical centers are at full capacity, and logistics supply capabilities are degraded.
Mariupol (7):
The situation in Mariupol remains grim. The occupiers took away the Russian doctors from Mariupol and left the city without medical assistance.
Less then 3% of the population has access to water.
The International Committee of the Red Cross is in contact with prisoners of war from Mariupol. Accordingly, the Red Cross controls the prison conditions, but this information cannot be disclosed to the media. The wives of the Ukrainian defenders stressed that one of the conditions of their surrender was that Red Cross representatives would visit the prisoners twice a week, but the Russian side does not comply with these requirements.
Zaporizhia/Southern Axis (8):
RU forces continue to leverage artillery and rocket fire across the front, but launched no major offensives. Reportedly UA is amassing troops and equipment for a potential offensive in this region.
7 Missiles were fired at Dnipro, with 6 intercepted by UA ADA. This has been a semi-regular occurrence as RU forces try and degrade the principal supply hub for the E regions of Ukraine.
UA is reporting that RU took up to 200 KIA and 300 WIA during bombardment of a major base near Melitopol two days ago. Reportedly, this is complicated by the fact that RU medical facilities have been closed down due to concerns about partisan attacks, and as such first line medical care was not immediately accessible. About 1000 RU soldiers are stationed in Melitopol, and 50% of the residents (70k people) are still forced to stay in the city, and subject to wide-reaching anti-partisan operations.
The majority of the UA staff at the Zaporizhia NPP in Enerhodar have refused to work with RU occupiers, and as such are gradually being replaced by RU staff with the goal being a new staffing by the end of the month.
Ru forces have stepped up forced conscription efforts in the South of Ukraine, where HOA are being tasked with submitting names of military-age members. The Ukrainian National Resistance center has set up a hotline and protocols for those who are forcibly mobilized to surrender to UA troops.
Denmark agreed to support the redevelopment of the Mykolaiv region after the war.
Kherson (9):
RU forces have resupplied with additional artillery ammo, and have conducted massive shelling across the front line, particularly to the NE of Kherson City. UA troops appear to have taken the W town of Oleksandrivka, and are attempting to push along the coastline towards Kherson from the W, as evidenced by numerous UA artillery strikes on RU positions in the area.
UA forces carried out airstrikes on RU positions, destroying 2 ammo depots. Reportedly a squadron of KA-52 gunships have been harassing the crossings near the Inhulets rivers, but reportedly are conducting primarily long range harassing strikes rather then CAS due to risk of MANPADS. UA stated they may have repelled a platoon-level attack near Davidy brid, which indicates that the river may still have crossings in place, and UA forces in play after their withdrawal in early June.
The Russian unit likely responsible for the war crimes in Bucha, the 64th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, was reportedly deployed to the southern region near Kherson.
There was an air battle in the last 24 hours, unsure if its the one reported yesterday, where UA aircraft managed to evade an A2A salvo.
UA lead elements have come very close to the outskirts of Kherson, reportedly within sniper range of the city proper in some cases (1-2 km), but they do not yet have the necessary forces and means to liberate the city.
Odessa/Black Sea/Transnistria (10):
Reportedly in the black sea, there are 3 missile ships, 2 submarines, and 1 transport equipped with up to 32 Kaliber cruise missiles.
RU has strengthened the defense of the Kerch Strait bridge, between Crimea and Russia, with anti missile and anti-aircraft defenses, as well as literal obscuring smoke and reflecting large mirrors, intended to disrupt missile navigation.
Russia has been shipping Ukrainian grain to Turkey via ships with transponders disabled, but are able to be located via satellite imagery. Negotiations for the unblocking of Ukrainian ports with Turkey are continuing.
General:
Yesterday, Ukrainian forces eliminated:
150 x soldiers (Total 36,350)
5x tanks
18x APC
3x Artillery (1x MLRS)
2x UAV
5x vehicles
The majority of losses were in the Slovyansk and Donetsk areas.
Yuriy Voronov, the general director of the Astra Shipping transport company which worked with Gazprom in the artic, was found dead in Russia near St. Petersburg. Per his wife, he had a conflict with business partners due to loss of money, and was found with a gunshot wound to the head in his pool, alongside a pistol. This is the 5th death of a person related to senior levels of the Russian oil/gas industry in 6 months.
Russia withdrew about 700-1000 soldiers from a base near Finland, of the 80th Separate Motorized Rifle brigade, one of RU’s most significant artic circle warfare units. They are suspected to have been redeployed to Ukraine, accounting for 30-50% of the entire bases strength.
The heads of foreign affairs of Sweden and Finland signed protocols on joining NATO after the completion of the relevant negotiations.
The UK has agreed to provide another 100 million pounds in financial aid, and will host the next reconstruction conference on Ukraine. Given the political shakeup currently unfolding in the UK, a UK minister expressed that his priority was on the Ukrainian war rather then scandals in London, hopefully indicating that this support will not waver or become distracted. Ukraine will receive 10 SPG systems and loitering munitions from the UK in coming weeks.
RU senior politicians reiterated the desired end state for the war was a Ukraine “pacified and permanently neutral between Russia and NATO”, indicating that the initial goals for demilitarization and regime change in Kyiv are still desired. The political goals for RU remains far more then the currently held territory, despite statements of limited ceasefires. This is a position supported by RU nationalists such as Igor Girkin.
Russian cosmonauts on the International Space Station unfurled the flags of the self-proclaimed “L/DPR” after the Russian occupiers captured the Luhansk region. There are rumors of some pressure being placed on the cosmonauts and their families to perform such an action, and that it was done under duress given reluctance by operational elements of Roscosmos to get involved in the political stance their senior leadership espouses.
The goalkeeper of the Russian national hockey team was detained during a training session in St. Petersburg. A few days later he ended up in a military training center beyond the Arctic Circle. He recently signed a contract with the Philly Flyers, and was due to move to Philly to play in the NHL.
Looking forward:
UA troops will likely continue to attempt to consolidate defenses near Siversk, as well as along the southern line all the way down to Bakhmut. It remains to be seen if RU forces have the means and motivation to further assault W towards Slovyansk and Kramatorsk after heavy losses in manpower and equipment during the battle for Severodonetsk.
The forward positioning of UA troops near Kherson means that the capability for deeper strikes into the city becomes increasingly feasible.
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Hahaha. Very good.
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the american govt is desperate for the people to unite against a common enemy, and who better than the old foe in russia. they’ll prop up this war until they tear itself apart from the inside.
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The poll polled the American public’s preparedness to pay a price for supporting Ukraine in its war with Russia, on three dimensions: increased energy costs, rising inflation, and preparedness to pay a price in American lives.
Whether higher energy costs and rising inflation in the US are exactly correlate with the Ukraine war I’m not sure.
Also, Republicans are less prepared to pay these costs to support Ukraine.
Great thread. Lol. The Russian army doesn’t have forklifts or pallets … Looks more like WWII than 2022
Talking about trains
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Thanks. I liked this quote:
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Some abducted children recovered
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The full Vice video
Ukrainians Are Bombing Russians with Custom Drones
Edit: ArthurD check out this video if you haven’t already
NASA fire monitoring satellite tells an interesting story.
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Thanks. Apologies to @FuriousGeorge @elfm @Benny40 and others I owe responses to. Laptop browser crash remaining unfixed while I catch up with LOTS of detailed docs re drones. Meanwhile no keyboard on phone but doing bibliography I could email to phone to post when ready if anybody wants.
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Bump
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Chechen TikTok clown time
“Akhmat is Power” LOL -
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