Any Napoleonic quote come to mind?
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My only Napoleonic quote is the palindrome:
able was i ere i saw elba
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The Ukrainians have asked for more Bushmasters. I reckon the quickest way to provide them is to gift them to the Russians and then the Ukrainians will have them in about 10 days.
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I was thinking of one from Waterloo, and not āThe history book on the shelf is always repeating itselfā
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Waterloo, I was defeated, you won the war
Waterloo, promise to love you forevermore
Waterloo, couldnāt escape if I wanted to
Waterloo, knowing my fate is to be with you
Wa-Wa-Wa-Wa-Waterloo
Finally facing my Waterloo
ā¦oh, wait, not want you meant.
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If Ru has run out of artillery shells in theatre, I would be worried about cruise missile or bomber delivered WMDs because artillery is basically how they conduct war on the ground. The indicators are UKR troop concentrations or hitherto intact cities. It seems Ru is in danger of losing the tactical war and will move to strategic weapons, but most likely only try to go nuclear as a very last resort. In the case of the latter, the chance of fallout blowback into Russia itself, or onto its own troops is high within the disputed area. I mean, how can you bomb the territory you just annexed, thats where the strategic bit comes in; the target(s) might be well away from the frontlines.
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Some missile attacks coming from Belarus.
Does Russia have access to those ammunition dumps in Belarus and Transnistria?
( Any help from Serbia, which has an armaments black market.?)
Annexation of Goondiwindi perhaps?
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In the next month or so I predict we are going to see Russia use their long distance air capability and undersea capabilities to hit civilian targets eg hydroelectricity, thermal power plants, manufacturing, logistics hubs, government buildings in major Ukrainian cities with increasing regularity.
If that doesnāt bring Ukraine to the negotiating table I expect the escalation is tactical nukes at targets well behind the front line.
The faster the west can get modern anti-air into major cities the better. Iron dome systems from Israel around Odessa and Kyiv would be a major disincentive for the Russians.
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The other thing that would be cool would be to test out Iron Beam against Iranian drones
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Itās grey area
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Iron dome is a very limited system for a very specific threat. Itās awesome for masses of unguided rockets, predicts which small % of individual rockets are going to hit a city and only intercepts them.
NASAMS and IRIS-T have been promised, but they are being manufactured for Ukraine instead of delivered from stocks. These are great because they use AMRAAM missiles that basically every western military stocks in large numbers. Downside is it is taking a very very long time to get them in theatre. Germany is delivering 2 in the coming month or two. I think Ukraine will end up with about a dozen cities protected by either of these German or Norwegian batteries.
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Yep. There are literally thousands of Patriot systems in US. Requires technicians accompanying and that should be done.
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Thatās always worked really well in the past.
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Today is Vladās birthday, cracked 70. just ā ā ā ā off now.
Hope UA has a special present for him.
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Basically they are being backed into a corner. Green Ru troops in large numbers are going to be no match for battle hardened defence troops ( admittedly having suffered ?? attrition, but in sufficient number to be regularly rotated out of action for R&R ) . For Russia, supply lines cut off in the regions they think they have secured, battling a far superior HIMARS equipped defending force. Loss of territory in the Autumn cannot be regained easily over winter.
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Iām curious why Patriot hasnāt been deployed. Wonder if thereās less valuable IP in the AMRAAMS armed systems. Possibly it is because the systems being sent are distributed with multiple radars and launchers per battery, which makes them harder to take out. Also, much larger pool of missile stocks to sustain the war longer term. Patriot seems like a very expensive system, maybe overkill.
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Patriot for Kyiv I guess. A very high value target. Could Putin sink any lower ?
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Odessa also a favourite target.
They have started getting NASAMS, which may actually be more useful than Patriot.
Patriot is a longer range system. If the Russians start reverting to old-school ballistic missiles then Patriot would be useful.
I think thereās currently more danger from the suicide Iranian drones, I suspect NASAMs would be more effective against these.
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