Wow!! At times the amount of stupid coming out of Russia leaves the USA in its shadow. Truly delusional.
YOu would have to wonder about the people actually in that “widows Group” and how controlled it i sby the Kremlin.
Wouldn’t be surprised if its President is that woman who appears in all the Putin photo-ops.
That reminds me. I postponed reading the whole of Zelensky’s very important speech to Ukraine’s Parliament on December 28 as the video only had auto-translation of subtitles from auto-transcribed Ukrainian.
Have now read the full speech and strongly recommend it to others.
Title of the blog post I linked it to says all I need to say about it:
Ukraine is leading the Global War Against Fascism - and knows it
Like previous partial mobilization the next wave, which may be larger will not be something that can be hit at “marshalling points” but a broad conscription of anybody they can catch from all over Russia, followed by efforts to train and equip them before any offensive.
Meanwhile they are training more than 150,000 from previous wave in Belarus while having sent many of them untrained to Donbas just to try and stop the front collapsing.
Here’s the summary from Presidential office advisor Arestovych discussion on January 3:
Russian mobilization
The Ukrainian Minister of Defence has stated that Russia is preparing the next round of mobilization after the 5th of January 2023. The mobilization in the Russian Federation started 3 weeks after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and hasn’t stopped since then. First, it was a “hidden” mobilization conducted by the Russian army, then the open & “partial” mobilization started in September and hasn’t really stopped. Russia managed to gather almost 300k in the first wave. Of this first wave, the unfortunate 150k were immediately sent to the frontlines without training. Another half was sent to the training centres, receiving the varying quality of training. While Russia has already spent 150k of the first wave, the Russian command has already decided to use the rest of the mobilized to attack Ukraine (either on a suicide attack on the North of Ukraine, or to occupy the rest of the Donetsk region).
The Russian regime will mobilize more people because they realise that the remaining 150k from the first wave will die attacking Ukraine.
Putin’s main objective now is to remain in power to physically survive in Russia. Putin is willing to sacrifice as many Russians as he can to force some kind of ceasefire & negotiations on Ukraine and the West. He will try to sell a ceasefire/negotiations as a “victory” because a defeat will mean the physical removal of Putin from power, and thus, his physical demise will certainly follow.
The new mobilization wave in Russia will lead to another mass exit from Russia. Therefore, the Russian regime will probably attempt to close the borders.
In the next couple of months, Russia will struggle with:
managing to recruit another 300k mobilized;
finding equipment and logistic capacities to deal with these mobilised;
finding officers to manage all the mobilized;
deciding on the direction of the attack.
Different Russian factions are arguing to use the mobilized to:
attack the North of Ukraine, which will be a suicide;
or attack Zaporizhzhja and Donbas direction (maybe also Kharkiv) or;
the most feasible, attack to occupy the rest of the Donetsk region.
Ukraine is not only better prepared now but is also supported by the West (economically and militarily). The West has already prepared to help Ukraine’s economy and is increasing the capacity of its industrial-military complex to aid Ukraine, with military aid probably increasing and including novel armament in the future.
While Russia will try to force a long war of attrition or a frozen conflict on Ukraine and the West, the international military experts are questioning the Russian capacity to arm, equip and feed the mobilized. While Ukraine may still see some bloody battles and face some struggles, the Ukrainians will continue to fight for its survival and for the liberation of all Ukrainian territories – this is non-negotiable.
Edit add: At the end of the summary there is a brief paragraph on current campaign to save former Georgian leader:
The worldwide action to demand medical treatment and fair trial for long-term Putin’s critic, Georgia’s ex-president Mikhail Saakashvili, will start on the 4th of January at noon, at your local Georgian embassy. The current pro-Russian Georgian Government is denying proper medical treatment to Saakashvili who was poisoned while in custody and is dragging him to a trial – this is a violation of the human right of life, dignity and the right to proper medical treatment. #SaveMisha
The video of Arestetovych discussion ends with short speech on importance this campaign as part of reintroducing morality into politics. I cannot copy the auto-translation but it is a very real campaign that is part of the same global democratic revolution Ukraine is leading. It is about changing the way the world is run, not just Ukraine.
Here’s links to the above #SaveMisha hashtag on twitter and TikTok
PS There is an English translation voiceover of earlier video that mentions Georgian #SaveMisha campaign at 34’39"’ of 38’
Ukraine’s military leadership will not discount fresh russian thrusts from the north and North-east. However, they are prepared.
It’s a game. A high stakes game, but still a game. Saying you expect an assault from Belarus makes it less likely. If they told the world they though Russia was full of ■■■■, the chances of another invasion would increase.
Yep. Impression I got from the (horrible) auto-translation of Arestovych was an expectation that the more rational Russian planners will focus on the Donbas for reasons mentioned in the summary:
Putin’s main objective now is to remain in power to physically survive in Russia. Putin is willing to sacrifice as many Russians as he can to force some kind of ceasefire & negotiations on Ukraine and the West. He will try to sell a ceasefire/negotiations as a “victory” because a defeat will mean the physical removal of Putin from power, and thus, his physical demise will certainly follow.
Donbas is where they can still hope to force a ceasefire & negotiations and sell it domestically as having successfully defended the separatists from Ukrainian attack. Mentioned something about them being likely to claim other annexations were just to force the West to agree to negotiate the Donbas.
My impression is that they cannot plausibly even hope for success elsewhere.
That’s the idea.
The problem is having the intelligence with enough lead time. Usually, the only thing you can muster in that short time is rocket attack.
Preferably, it would be something more coordinated with other elements: aviation, tank, infantry etc. and try to exploit a breakthrough
Real assessment or sowing discord and doubt among the Ruf?
And there’s some nasty weather coming due next week
back to high tech weapons
Thanks but I just collect things that may have been missed on other platforms and by different time zones
Your efforts here are much appreciated.
Part of the reason why those being trained for artillery are being used as infantry is that their artillery pieces are being destroyed at such a great rate, they lack the equipment for them to use. They have more artillery personnel than pieces. Also, the loss of infantry soldiers is so great the need to replace them outweighs other needs. Then there is the hopeless planning at higher levels which adds a layer of farce to this whole episode.
Al Jazeera has reported a Bulgarian contract for supply of LNG from Turkey as an alternative to direct supply from Russia.
Russia exports LNG to Turkey and has proposed Turkey as an international hub.
Russia has relaxed conditions for purchase payments in roubles by ‘unfriendly ‘ countries